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January 28-29, 2022 Miller abcdefu Storm Threat


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Just now, stormtracker said:

It's a positive change by far.  Not quite jaws worthy yet tho

It definitely is.  Better than 12Z.  Sharper trough, the low actually develops farther south.  It's actually not all that incredibly different from the NAM or the Euro.  We all know the NAM is probably overdoing the precip and maybe overdoing the strength at its range.  But hell, can't argue with the result the GFS is giving here.

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1 minute ago, gopper said:

Honestly, give DD some latitude.  He really is not doing such a bad job with PBP.  Nothing is wrong with his posts.  We are all intelligent enough to take what we can from everyone's post.  If you think his posts are out of line, simply fly over them and stick with StormTracker.  Both have been giving good PBP IMO.

It is what it is, the predictive nature of certain things we could probably do without. I'd rather give better analysis about the features and results of the run after it comes out but sometimes its easy to predict. Runs like the NAM just look too good early to not say where they're headed.

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46 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Just copy and paste this every time the ICON comes out or just refer to this post:

THE ICON SUCKS.

speaking of sucks...how many times has the NAM showed us amazing run and it ends at 84 right before the climax....so we wait for the next run to pick up where it left off..and it trends 300 miles the other way....i hope we can see the sequel tonight from 18z but often we are just left hangin

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By tomorrow, this threat will look absolutely perfect which will set us up nicely for the rug to be pulled out on Wednesday.

I wrote this yesterday. Keep your feet on the ground and reach for the stars. Been here too long since the days of Internet Relay Chat in mid 90s. We’ve seen this movie before. Just keep the emotion in check!


.
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5 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

The 500 didn't translate to the massive surface improvements i thought. 0Z will be rocking us. 

I agree, the h5 is a good bit better than some of the runs we've seen in the last 24 hours.. if that look continues and improves, the surface will show a lot better results. We're still at the range where surface panels/results are the least accurate prediction of a model.

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

For the type of setup, this one is trying hard af to hit on all cylinders. It could become the new "remember that unblocked northern stream phased luck bomb in 2022?" every time another pops up. Jan 2000 has been beat to death anyway

Yeah, time for the next generation storm references to take the handoff from the dinosaurs!!! :lol:

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9 minutes ago, gopper said:

Honestly, give DD some latitude.  He really is not doing such a bad job with PBP.  Nothing is wrong with his posts.  We are all intelligent enough to take what we can from everyone's post.  If you think his posts are out of line, simply fly over them and stick with StormTracker.  Both have been giving good PBP IMO.

Thanks for your input. 

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2 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Do you mind explaining what exactly we are looking for here?  Thx. 

Take a look at that whiter piece diving out of Canada straight into the trough. That’s a very important piece to this puzzle for a bigger storm potential. The quicker and sharper that dives into the system, it will allow the trough to organize better, sharper, and begin to tilt the axis neutral to negative. The only thing the GFS didn’t do that the Euro did is close off, which I am kind of surprised it didn’t. Surface could’ve been better imo. Maybe not Euro nuclear, but better. It’s really close to getting there. Regardless, it fits well into even my prediction right now, so solid trends on guidance.  

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1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

Take a look at that whiter piece diving out of Canada straight into the trough. That’s a very important piece to this puzzle for a bigger storm potential. The quicker and sharper that dives into the system, it will allow the trough to organize better, sharper, and begin to tilt the axis neutral to negative. The only thing the GFS didn’t do that the Euro did is close off, which I am kind of surprised it didn’t. Surface could’ve been better imo. Maybe not Euro nuclear, but better. It’s really close to getting there. Regardless, it fits well into even my prediction right now, so solid trends on guidance.  

I was kind of looking for the same thing, if the GFS would actually close off the h5 low but it didn't quite do it.

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