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January 28-29, 2022 Miller abcdefu Storm Threat


WxUSAF
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21 minutes ago, Ruin said:

So by all accounts the size of this storm could be huge if modeled correct. so my question why the sudden cut off in amounts in central MD and central PA?

Thar may just have to do with the timing of the phase. As someone else noted, phase earlier by like 6 hours and the storm bombs out just before our latitude.

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Morning AFD from LWX regarding the potential event

By Friday, a deep trough will continue to move further east. 
Confidence has continued to increase on the negative tilt nature of 
this trough over the last few runs as it reaches the east coast. The 
18/00z runs of the GEFS has backed off the center of low pressure 
being closer to the coast whereas the EPS/NBM are trending a bit 
more north-west. A more westward trend could bring a more widespread 
significant snowfall for portions of the area. For now, there still 
seems to be some discontinuity in the guidance as to the position of 
the low which will greatly impacts the snow totals that are received 
within the Mid-Atlantic region. 

This system is not a slam dunk by any means with a lack of blocking 
in the northern Atlantic. Nonetheless, the overall pattern for the 
event seems to be honing in on a snowy solution for much of the area 
with areas closer to the I-95 corridor having the higher totals for 
now, given where the best forcing/moisture availability resides. Do 
expect the Alleghenies to receive a fairly consistent snowfall for 
the event due to upsloping. Given the uncertainties with this event, 
have kept PoPs through Saturday evening but with a potentially fast 
moving track on pace, we may see conditions begin to dramatically 
improve during the day on Saturday. Other story will be the winds 
with this system with a tight gradient between the strong Arctic 
high pressure that will bring frigid cold temperatures Thursday and 
as it departs and the upper trough begins to build into the area. 
Coupled with these winds will be frigid cold temperatures, 
especially Saturday night into Sunday. Wind chill values may become 
more widespread in the negatives, even east of the Blue Ridge 
Mountains. Wind Chill Watches/Warnings/Advisories may be needed.
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Models really have no clue how to handle the energy in the SW. Still so many different looks at h5 across the board. We won’t have a consensus for Saturday’s storm until models get a better handle on what’s going on out west (how much energy is left behind, if any, and the amplitude / positioning of the ridge) Until that occurs, I'm not all in on a given solution at this juncture.

 

6z rgem vs NAM vs ICON is the perfect example. One leaves most of the energy behind, while another kicks it all the way out, resulting in vastly different outcomes. 

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Mount Holly Discussion this morning.

In terms of the technicals, it is pretty remarkable the sensitivity that operational guidance is showing to what the placement of a shortwave trough moving out of western Canada will be come late Thursday. There are other factors in play, and it will be a complex evolution, but that shortwave is the big one. It will be somewhere over the Southwest US by Thursday evening, but how far west it is will determine whether that shortwave gets left behind, or whether it phases with additional energy downstream. Much of the 24.12z guidance was more aggressive in ejecting that shortwave faster and further east, resulting in an earlier phase and major winter weather impacts for the mid-Atlantic. But the trend in most of the 24.18z and 25.00z guidance was for that shortwave to hang back more, resulting in an incomplete phase or a phase too late for much impact. The 25.0z EC was an exception, and shows what could happen in a faster phase scenario. These sort of fluctuations are common at this lead time, and will likely continue today. I hesitate to speculate too much on which outcome is more likely. However, will reiterate that the pattern does have similarities to past events where models displayed a right of track bias in the 3-5 day range. So if nothing else am definitely not inclined to write it off based on some of the more eastward 0z runs. Think we will probably start to see model solutions stabilize and converge towards tonight or tomorrow as shortwave energy is better sampled. For now, more generic messaging remains prudent.

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3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Mount Holly Discussion this morning.

In terms of the technicals, it is pretty remarkable the sensitivity that operational guidance is showing to what the placement of a shortwave trough moving out of western Canada will be come late Thursday. There are other factors in play, and it will be a complex evolution, but that shortwave is the big one. It will be somewhere over the Southwest US by Thursday evening, but how far west it is will determine whether that shortwave gets left behind, or whether it phases with additional energy downstream. Much of the 24.12z guidance was more aggressive in ejecting that shortwave faster and further east, resulting in an earlier phase and major winter weather impacts for the mid-Atlantic. But the trend in most of the 24.18z and 25.00z guidance was for that shortwave to hang back more, resulting in an incomplete phase or a phase too late for much impact. The 25.0z EC was an exception, and shows what could happen in a faster phase scenario. These sort of fluctuations are common at this lead time, and will likely continue today. I hesitate to speculate too much on which outcome is more likely. However, will reiterate that the pattern does have similarities to past events where models displayed a right of track bias in the 3-5 day range. So if nothing else am definitely not inclined to write it off based on some of the more eastward 0z runs. Think we will probably start to see model solutions stabilize and converge towards tonight or tomorrow as shortwave energy is better sampled. For now, more generic messaging remains prudent.

Perfectly put. 
 

I like this sentence here 

“However, will reiterate that the pattern does have similarities to past events where models displayed a right of track bias in the 3-5 day range.”

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Just now, jayyy said:

Perfectly put. 
 

I like this sentence here 

“However, will reiterate that the pattern does have similarities to past events where models displayed a right of track bias in the 3-5 day range.”

Yeah this forecaster is good. Brought that up in the morning AFD yesterday.

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