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January 28-29, 2022 Miller abcdefu Storm Threat


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Tracker's pbp is the shizzle. This is the new way. Not optional though. Sorry Randy. You gonna b up late A LOT. 
My first event that i ever tracked with people and models was jan 25 2000. What an introduction i got to modeling and probably ruined my life
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gfs 

0OCpZTZ.jpg

Euro 

SgeCrjs.jpg

Several intricate interactions affecting the outcome. But I’m kinda shocked as bad as the Gfs mucks them all up it still had a storm at all even for Boston.  Testament to how good the setup for a major amplification is. 
 

GFS is out of sync with all the parts. The ridge is so far west that the original SW (c) elongates and splits off from the NS trough. Look at the separation between C and B (the energy at the base of the NS trough). Lastly the nail is that A is weaker and coming in too flat to amplify and turn the axis of the trough negative in time for us. 
 

On the euro the ridge is slightly better, C and B are more in sync and A is diving in due south to amplify and turn the axis of the trough. Similar to what happened last weekend only this time we want that since the whole process is happening further east. 
 

I did identify this pattern as possibly conducive to major amplifications but we might get 2!  But I also warned that such storms, while fun to look at and track aren’t necessarily what we want to get a lot of snow. A simple boundary wave was probably a safer bet. 
 

these bombs (with no blocking and they usually don’t) give us a narrow window. Trough cuts off too soon and we go to rain. Slightly too late and we are smoking cirrus. It’s not like a west to east boundary wave where in a cold pattern we tend to be about the right latitude to cash in as the boundary wobbles north and south with waves among it. And it’s not like blocked patterns where any track between Ohio and the coast works since the block will force a cutter to transfer east. (any further west and the storm will just wash out). 
 

I have no idea which runs are handling these features best but I know this is very complicated and we don’t often do complicated well. Simple tends to be what works more often around here. But we’re still in the game. 

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Hey Mid-Atlantic friends. I found this new model output giving probabilities of precipitation for the GFS Ensembles. Right now, some of the Mid-Atlantic has a 40% chance of 1"  of snow and eastern Massachusetts has a 70% chance of 1" of snow. (later model hour than this.) I guess we'll see if this type of ensemble output is helpful in the next 2 days. After that, certainly the operational models will be most helpful.

QQBZ8PE.jpg

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

gfs 

0OCpZTZ.jpg

Euro 

SgeCrjs.jpg

Several intricate interactions affecting the outcome. But I’m kinda shocked as bad as the Gfs mucks them all up it still had a storm at all even for Boston.  Testament to how good the setup for a major amplification is. 
 

GFS is out of sync with all the parts. The ridge is so far west that the original SW (c) elongates and splits off from the NS trough. Look at the separation between C and B (the energy at the base of the NS trough). Lastly the nail is that A is weaker and coming in too flat to amplify and turn the axis of the trough negative in time for us. 
 

On the euro the ridge is slightly better, C and B are more in sync and A is diving in due south to amplify and turn the axis of the trough. Similar to what happened last weekend only this time we want that since the whole process is happening further east. 
 

I did identify this pattern as possibly conducive to major amplifications but we might get 2!  But I also warned that such storms, while fun to look at and track aren’t necessarily what we want to get a lot of snow. A simple boundary wave was probably a safer bet. 
 

these bombs (with no blocking and they usually don’t) give us a narrow window. Trough cuts off too soon and we go to rain. Slightly too late and we are smoking cirrus. It’s not like a west to east boundary wave where in a cold pattern we tend to be about the right latitude to cash in as the boundary wobbles north and south with waves among it. And it’s not like blocked patterns where any track between Ohio and the coast works since the block will force a cutter to transfer east. (any further west and the storm will just wash out). 
 

I have no idea which runs are handling these features best but I know this is very complicated and we don’t often do complicated well. Simple tends to be what works more often around here. But we’re still in the game. 

This. And even that euro map,which is lined up much better, is still about 200 miles too far east. Hopefully the PV kicks that ns piece a little further west and the sw piece ejects earlier. Not sure if any of that is even possible.

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4 minutes ago, Chinook said:

Hey Mid-Atlantic friends. I found this new model output giving probabilities of precipitation for the GFS Ensembles. Right now, some of the Mid-Atlantic has a 40% chance of 1"  of snow and eastern Massachusetts has a 70% chance of 1" of snow. (later model hour than this.) I guess we'll see if this type of ensemble output is helpful in the next 2 days. After that, certainly the operational models will be most helpful.

QQBZ8PE.jpg

Thanks, but how did you stumble into this low rent establishment?

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6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Uh …

I know it’s frustrating…it’s that even rather large improvements in certain aspects only yield incremental marginal improvements in the final result wrt snowfall. And that’s due to the limitations of this synoptic progression for us. The storm is in its formative stages until near our latitude.   These improvements can continue to edge things to a marginally better outcome but unless the progression changes it’s not like we’re suddenly going to get a run with a deform back to WV or something.  Only way that happens is the lottery level scenario that somehow it digs enough to activate the gulf stj wave instead of phasing with the weaker stj wave off the SE coast. But the timing seems off for that to work. The NS is coming in too far ahead of it. And I’m not sure that’s even fixable since to dive in that far west would probably end in a cut off or energy left behind to rot like the Gfs. 

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I know it’s frustrating…it’s that even rather large improvements in certain aspects only yield incremental marginal improvements in the final result wrt snowfall. And that’s due to the limitations of this synoptic progression for us. The storm is in its formative stages until near our latitude.   These improvements can continue to edge things to a marginally better outcome but unless the progression changes it’s not like we’re suddenly going to get a run with a deform back to WV or something.  Only way that happens is the lottery level scenario that somehow it digs enough to activate the gulf stj wave instead of phasing with the weaker stj wave off the SE coast. But the timing seems off for that to work. The NS is coming in too far ahead of it. And I’m not sure that’s even fixable since to dive in that far west would probably end in a cut off or energy left behind to rot like the Gfs. 

I’m just holding out hope there’s a meeting in the middle so to speak. Ns west, four corners east. Line up better and get a full phase, deeper more negative trough, hurl that low back toward us. Like you, not sure it’s even possible.

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14 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Tad better than 12z

I can understand the western crews frustration. Winchester improved 2/10ths of an inch. 5 more similar improvements and they still only get 3”!  I think the limitations of this setup are starting to show with how some rather significant improvements in the h5 setup only yield very minimal difference for places NW of 95.  It’s mostly improving places further east indicative of a stronger storm due to those improvements but not necessarily one with a further west qpf field. 

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I can understand the western crews frustration. Winchester improved 2/10ths of an inch. 5 more similar improvements and they still only get 3”!  I think the limitations of this setup are starting to show with how some rather significant improvements in the h5 setup only yield very minimal difference for places NW of 95.  It’s mostly improving places further east indicative of a stronger storm due to those improvements but not necessarily one with a further west qpf field. 
Weve seen almost every combo of angles..movement..phasing...and they all give us at best an advisory event. When is the next window?
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Pretty classic look for the MA crew at day 4, I would be prepping the clearing equipment 95 north of Richmond to NYC, particularly areas east of the Interstate. While we (SE) like Central FL or even GA, this is textbook with near term correction for your areas. Inside the benchmark with occlusion still on the table. Chase watch hoisted.

307F6941-295E-4126-9AE9-53A9087A67B8.thumb.png.a8c94c2b8728d0af5299387d9c036958.png

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