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Potential 1/28-1/30 2022 winter storm


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11 hours ago, HKY_WX said:

The trough is a bit too positively tilted to throw enough moisture back (at least in the southern Mid-Atlantic). The best bet on this one is for the northern stream to continue to trend a bit stronger/further west. That enables it to capture the southern energy (there a few different ways this could happen though). This would draw in a little more gulf moisture and also result in a quicker phase which would tilt the trough more negative and allow the SLP to track closer to the coast. The chance is there, but again the odds aren't great unless we see some solid trends soon.

To reiterate this. The NAM didnt leave any energy behind in the southwest resulting in a full lattitude negatively titled trough aka phase. We need that energy to be captured by the northern stream for this to work out.

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21 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

I hate these charts even more after reading this article.

This article does not explain how ensembles work.  It explains how WRAL takes the number of ensemble members that show 1 inch of snow for your backyard out of the total 50 that run with each ECMWF iteration to manufacture a “probability” or “chance” of 1 inch of snow in your backyard.  That’s not a “probability” of 1 inch of snow.  It’s a “percentage” of ensemble members that show the desired outcome.  Those 50 ensemble members aren’t the only possible 50 outcomes for how the storm system could evolve, and they aren’t equally likely outcomes.  It’s not a probability.

If all it takes to be a meteorologist is being able to calculate percentages of ensemble members that show a particular outcome and making a pretty chart to graph it, then sign me up.

Rant over.  I’ll shut up now and promise to stop commenting on these charts even though people keep posting them in here.

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