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January 28-30th Possible Nor'easter


Rjay
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5 minutes ago, MANDA said:

I still favor the Euro over the GFS/CMC solutions.  The EURO at 500 looks darn impressive, just not fast enough / far enough south to help western and northern areas of this forum.  I think the upcoming 00Z and 12Z runs you are going to start to see an consensus form leaning more toward the Euro.  Use liquid amounts at 12:1 for snowfall totals.  Kuchera maps are just weather porn.

I do think the well NW areas need a lot of help here and are on life support with this one but it hasn't been a surprise given the trends over the last day or so. I'd put the "there's still a decent shot" line at I-287/87 and then along I-84 east of there. By decent I mean a warning level event. There could still be 2-4" or something like that well NW.

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You also can't have people preparing for this literally Friday. IMO we shouldn't project our disappointment on the fact that they started telling people about the storm's potential.
Very tough situation with the models split like that, unless their meteorologists were prepared to toss the Euro completely and commit to the GFS no way you can't bypass giving the millions of people that live here ample notice given the potential for a very, very potent storm.
I work in an area related to this, if they waited much longer and this pans out, it would be absolutely nightmarish on Friday.
Mostly agree. Thursday would have been fine.
Also, I'm actually rooting for no snow

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

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2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I do think the well NW areas need a lot of help here and are on life support with this one but it hasn't been a surprise given the trends over the last day or so. I'd put the "there's still a decent shot" line at I-287/87 and then along I-84 east of there. By decent I mean a warning level event. There could still be 2-4" or something like that well NW.

Exactly. Im near 84 and NWS Albany has my most probable snow accums at 4.4 FWIW. 

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22 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The Kuchera ratios aren't happening except for maybe well inland. That's showing maybe 15-1 ratios for the coast. MAYBE we can do 12-1 here. The winds are going to break the dendrites apart. That said the Euro run was very encouraging that at least this isn't dead. And the other models really aren't far off from something a lot better. We just need the upper lows to close off 6 hrs or so sooner. And we need some kind of help from the southern stream.

Upton is loltastic with the snow ranges from nothing to 21" for me. But I guess that really is the 10 and 90% threshold at this point. 

The wild card in all this is what will come from the data collected on the recon flight today and the 3 additional flights tomorrow.  The data from today’s flight is expected to reflect in the 0z model suite.

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1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said:

The NAM is all over the place so even if we did get nam'd I wouldn't take it that seriously but it would probably give this forum a lift.  

That's what getting nam'd is lol 

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