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January 28-30th Possible Nor'easter


Rjay
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12 minutes ago, Rjay said:

The gfs was wrong the entire time.  The reason the models are shifting east is bc of modeled convection over the Gulf Stream. 

Time will tell. I fish the NE and have for 30+ years.  I also take monthly samples that are irrelevant compared to SST satellite temps.  Too many variables to draw conclusions to any single event, let alone season.   Still enjoy.  And still see potential. just ramping up. 

 

Edit:  commercially fish and observe the NE canyons for a living.  (Walking dog and typing...give me a break)

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7 minutes ago, dseagull said:

Time will tell. I fish the NE and have for 30+ years.  I also take monthly samples that are irrelevant compared to SST satellite temps.  Too many variables to draw conclusions to any single event, let alone season.   Still enjoy.  And still see potential. just ramping up. 

Fished the same for nearly 40 years. My how it has changed. A 3 fish limit on blues. OTOH, never seen so many striped bass in the Raritan, all the way up the river to Edison. Big ones.

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33 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

A month of great blocking and we couldn't buy a drop of precip. Now the storm train is rolling and there's an express track from NC out into the Atlantic.

Maybe “convection” can bail us out next time there’s a 3/14/17 type storm. Of course those are when all systems are go and the people who are supposed to get buried go without a hitch.

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13 minutes ago, dseagull said:

Time will tell. I fish the NE and have for 30+ years.  I also take monthly samples that are irrelevant compared to SST satellite temps.  Too many variables to draw conclusions to any single event, let alone season.   Still enjoy.  And still see potential. just ramping up. 

 

Edit:  commercially fish and observe the NE canyons for a living.  (Walking dog and typing...give me a break)

Used to work the deck on party boats ( remember those? They are going out of business fast ) in Atl Highlands; worked with the Dave from Wicked Tuna when he was a HS kid. 1982.

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Hope everyone is well!! Been quite A WHILE since posting. Turned into a lurker here as I didn’t have much to contribute. Looks like we have a nice little storm here. I’ve always looked at it this way for the NE NJ/NYC area lower elevations..we tend to get 6” of snow fairly often. I consider 6” here a solid snowstorm. To get much more than that, there usually needs to be something special for our area. It could be a storm bombing out, enhanced banding, or high ratios. The latter is rare for us, but it seems it could happen here. Obviously a storm bombing out in just the right place would give us 12”+, and if we have more than one of those “special” things, it would usually be a lock for a foot of snow, but it seems that will be for parts of LI through SNE for this one. The models have been consistently inconsistent, but overall not their worst showing with this storm. I think 6-10” is a good call for this area right now. Moderate snow and higher ratios than 10:1, probably 6 or 7”. Occasional heavier banding plus higher than normal ratios may surprise some of us by when we measure 8-10” possibly. A slight shift west and even 10-12” is not out of the question, though I do think most of the 12-18”+ amounts will be from the coastal NJ areas up through LI. If nothing else, it’s pretty cool to see the “snow depth” map totals better than the “total snowfall 10:1” maps!


. Pro

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2 minutes ago, WintersGrasp said:

Hope everyone is well!! Been quite A WHILE since posting. Turned into a lurker here as I didn’t have much to contribute. Looks like we have a nice little storm here. I’ve always looked at it this way for the NE NJ/NYC area lower elevations..we tend to get 6” of snow fairly often. I consider 6” here a solid snowstorm. To get much more than that, there usually needs to be something special for our area. It could be a storm bombing out, enhanced banding, or high ratios. The latter is rare for us, but it seems it could happen here. Obviously a storm bombing out in just the right place would give us 12”+, and if we have more than one of those “special” things, it would usually be a lock for a foot of snow, but it seems that will be for parts of LI through SNE for this one. The models have been consistently inconsistent, but overall not their worst showing with this storm. I think 6-10” is a good call for this area right now. Moderate snow and higher ratios than 10:1, probably 6 or 7”. Occasional heavier banding plus higher than normal ratios may surprise some of us by when we measure 8-10” possibly. A slight shift west and even 10-12” is not out of the question, though I do think most of the 12-18”+ amounts will be from the coastal NJ areas up through LI. If nothing else, it’s pretty cool to see the “snow depth” map totals better than the “total snowfall 10:1” maps!


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Love the optimism but it doesn't sound like NE NJ is going to see much if things play out the way some think. But we will take what comes, right?

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Love the optimism but it doesn't sound like NE NJ is going to see much if things play out the way some think. But we will take what comes, right?

Most models show at least 6”. Not the 12”+ that recent runs put out, but that was really only a couple cycles on individual models that did anyway. The latest HRRR gives the area 8-10. I find it tends to be overdone with marginal temps when it often shows 6-10” and we end up with 3”. This is a situation where I feel the 8” could easily verify and wouldn’t be surprised at all if we get a bit more than that.


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