qg_omega Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: what a ****ing headache. the fact we are hours away from this and we still have alot of uncertainty is mind blowing. Models are extremely on top of each other, there is like no uncertainty. Literally every model has 6 to 8 for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, qg_omega said: Models are extremely on top of each other, there is like no uncertainty. Literally every model has 6 to 8 for NYC. 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Models are extremely on top of each other, there is like no uncertainty. Literally every model has 6 to 8 for NYC. More than 10:1 ratio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, qg_omega said: Models are extremely on top of each other, there is like no uncertainty. Literally every model has 6 to 8 for NYC. 6-8 is 10-1 ratios. Bone cold storm through the entire column will have ratios. The Kuchera are likely closer to reality than 10-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 If you look at the last 4 runs of the HRRR through 12z tomorrow the model has ticked SE ever so slightly with each consecutive run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, qg_omega said: Models are extremely on top of each other, there is like no uncertainty. Literally every model has 6 to 8 for NYC. It's why I feel comfortable saying 6-10. Could adjust up or down though. If I had to guess, and say if it is more likely to go up or down, I would say up based on the atmosphere. However, I feel comfortable with 6-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 NAM is a foot+ from central nassau on east. 16+ or so from the nassau/suffolk line on east, pretty strong model consensus here now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, NJwx85 said: If you look at the last 4 runs of the HRRR through 12z tomorrow the model has ticked SE ever so slightly with each consecutive run. There has been more qpf each run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Sne Mets think the double lows are bullcrap 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Rap up to 21z Saturday and still snowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: Sne Mets think the double lows are bullcrap I agree... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, psv88 said: There has been more qpf each run... Where? Take a look at snowfall totals for NW areas. You can even see it backing out of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Sne Mets think the double lows are bullcrap Who said that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, NJwx85 said: Where? Take a look at snowfall totals for NW areas. You can even see it backing out of the city. On the island it has gotten snowier each run. This storm is toast NW for big totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Where? Take a look at snowfall totals for NW areas. You can even see it backing out of the city. Deft not talking about north west of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, psv88 said: On the island it has gotten snowier each run. This storm is toast NW for big totals. Well that's what I was referring too in my post. It's been ticking SE in places that are in danger. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Well that's what I was referring too in my post. It's been ticking SE in places that are in danger. You gotta say that then lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Nws 4 pm update just raised my snow amounts in the Blizzard warning. Interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, wthrmn654 said: Nws 4 pm update just raised my snow amounts in the Blizzard warning. Interesting. Raised mine in coastal Monmouth from 9-15 to 10-18" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 I expect warnings to be dropped here if things keep trending this way; we'll see. Probably more of an advisory here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Ok I got my ticket and I’m on my way back to LI, if I get anything less than a foot this trip wasnt worth $90 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 i don't want to hear complaining. i have said it a thousand times, if you want snow, you have to move to Montauk. 1 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 I think the models might be picking out the gradient that’s usually more than forecast which would be maybe 20 miles west of the city. But the most important consideration is this dual low/dumbbell and how real it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, Franklin0529 said: Raised mine in coastal Monmouth from 9-15 to 10-18" These folks are always late to the party. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, Franklin0529 said: Raised mine in coastal Monmouth from 9-15 to 10-18" Same here in SW Suffolk. May be one of the rare instances where being on the south shore is beneficial 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, jm1220 said: I think the models might be picking out the gradient that’s usually more than forecast which would be maybe 20 miles west of the city. But the most important consideration is this dual low/dumbbell and how real it is. It isn't yielding. And that's that. We'll have to see if it does in real time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said: i don't want to hear complaining. i have said it a thousand times, if you want snow, you have to move to Montauk. Good afternoon Will. I leave it to you to apply this properly. “Stick a Twin Fork In It”, As always … 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 I guess we still have time but damn what could’ve been we were legit 2/3 hours away from an absolute bomb on the models last few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tek1972 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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