MANDA Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, Doorman said: -Base -Snow Accumulation (ATM) you can see a 4 inch swing on the- plus side - in range... with minimal track wobbles (west) (banding) a foot for the metro looks solid use the link ...it updates every hour https://digital.weather.gov/ dm That pretty much reflects what I'm thinking with some possibly locally higher amounts NJ coast and east end. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: Enjoy any snow you get Ruining plans over under 10 inches isn’t worth it lol we had 7 inches a few weeks ago and it melted by noon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Ding ding ding. We are right on schedule i still do not believe the multi center idea i think we see a classic nor’easter with a beautiful satellite presentation with an eye and who ever gets the western deform band is still going to get historic numbers I usually would disregard the convection chasing to an extent but it already happened to the 1/9-10 storm this month. Even so it was a very nice event for most of us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 6 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Ding ding ding. We are right on schedule i still do not believe the multi center idea i think we see a classic nor’easter with a beautiful satellite presentation with an eye and who ever gets the western deform band is still going to get historic numbers Yup to this....except the part about "historic" numbers. Historic in my book are in the top 5 totals of all time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Ding ding ding. We are right on schedule i still do not believe the multi center idea i think we see a classic nor’easter with a beautiful satellite presentation with an eye and who ever gets the western deform band is still going to get historic numbers 100 percent. Been saying the same thing for almost 2 hours now... this has BEAUTIFUL presentation. Getting black to my south. Wind just started increasing 2knots/15min intvl. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, nycsnow said: Ruining plans over under 10 inches isn’t worth it lol we had 7 inches a few weeks ago and it melted by noon This will not melt by noon 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 We still have 18z and 0z for a change tonight fingers crossed 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, nycsnow said: Yeah any snow is great but getting 6-10 inches knowing what our potential was a few hours ago is a fail Some winters, "it just wants to snow" (e.g., '93–94, '95–'96, '13–'14, '14–'15). I don't think this is one of those winters, so I'll take whatever I can get. 6–10 inches is a respectable storm! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 6 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: we still got the 15z RAP It still believes in the western low. Less energy stripped and keeps best snows slightly west... wouldn't take much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Enjoy any snow you get I agree. 6 to 10 inches is a very nice and significant storm. It was very frustrating that we completely missed 2 other snowstorms to the south this month. I'm just happy that we're not going to miss it this time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I usually would disregard the convection chasing to an extent but it already happened to the 1/9-10 storm this month. Even so it was a very nice event for most of us. This is a much much deeper storm. I think we get into the 960s which is no joke. Storms of that magnitude always have that almost extra tropical look. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomcatct Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, Eduardo said: Some winters, "it just wants to snow" (e.g., '93–94, '95–'96, '13–'14, '14–'15). I don't think this is one of those winters, so I'll take whatever I can get. 6–10 inches is a respectable storm! That is very true ..no science to it.. just some years it finds a way to snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC10023 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: This will not melt by noon and the storm isn't over yet, or (checking outside) hasn't even started. The remnants of Ida weren't projected to cause record flooding; if it's one thing I've learned the past couple of years is that these storms lately are rarely what we expect. Good or bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomcatct Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 11 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: we still got the 15z RAP You know what, who's to say that it's not right.. I think all options are on the table at the moment. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 12 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: we still got the 15z RAP Lol 18z looks like 15z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 The RAP usually has a west bias at this range but it’s so far west there is room for a drift east if it’s got the right idea 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 It is kind of funny that you can predict just who will post based on what the models are showing. Not as much snow leads to one set of posters, more snow leads to others. The true winners are the one that practice meteorology over modelorogy. This is still a significant event for the majority of the subforum. Please don't downplay it just because you live west. There is still time before this begin and we have seen some dramatic shift both positive and negative as a storm starts to bomb. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: So 6 + makes people sad ? How much snow do we have so far this winter??? The thing is, the potential was really big. Maybe never that big for me (I'm in Rockland), but when the potential is large, there is a feeling of needing to get the fruition of it. There are only so many chances for 18+. I will give you an analogy. Let's say you play the Mega Millions and the jackpot is 200 million. You hit all 5 numbers, and now you are waiting on the 6th one where the number is anywhere from 1 to 25. You miss that one and wind up collecting 7k. You cannot say to that guy or gal, " what's wrong with you, 7k makes you sad"? Once 200 million was in play, yes, 7k makes one sad. Now, apply that to these snowstorms. In a vacuum 6 inches is great, but, a lot depends on the potential and what that is/was. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, KeithB said: The thing is, the potential was really big. Maybe never that big for me (I'm in Rockland), but when the potential is large, there is a feeling of needing to get the fruition of it. There are only so many chances for 18+. I will give you an analogy. Let's say you play the Mega Millions and the jackpot is 200 million. You hit all 5 numbers, and now you are waiting on the 6th one where the number is anywhere from 1 to 25. You miss that one and wind up collecting 7k. You cannot say to that guy or gal, " what's wrong with you, 7k makes you sad"? Once 200 million was in play, yes, 7k makes one sad. Now, apply that to these snowstorms. In a vacuum 6 inches is great, but, a lot depends on the potential and what that is/was. Take a high level scientific statistics class, and I GUARANTEE you wouldn't be sad. Numbers are static and involve no emotion. (Mods, sorry...feel free to remove...back to the storm) This coastal is just about to get going. By 1630, moods are going to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 People tossing the towel before the storm starts? Who could've seen that coming 2 1 6 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Interesting that there's snow showers across C and NNJ with no radar returns. We moist. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 first call...j/k nws max potential 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 21 minutes ago, nycsnow said: Yeah any snow is great but getting 6-10 inches knowing what our potential was a few hours ago is a fail Uh, the potential for more is still there and 6-10 locally give or take a little was always the forecast. There is no "fail" if the huge totals don't pan out unless you are a 6z nam hugger. With all due respect, some of these comments are ridiculous. Storm hasn't even played out and there's still a ton of uncertainty in terms of where the best banding sets up etc. Just chill and let it play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 I'll be happy enough with 5+inches at this point, enough for the kids to go sledding and have fun on Sunday. Anything more is gravy (Thanksgiving style, the good stuff) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Why is everybody jumping off a bridge based off of one euro run? Quite honestly it seems like an outlier, it is the furthest east of every other model. At this point I think the short term Hi-Rez models have a better idea of the banding on the western side. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 I'll be happy enough with 5+inches at this point, enough for the kids to go sledding and have fun on Sunday. Anything more is gravy (Thanksgiving style, the good stuff)I’m making meatballs tomorrow, so there’s that.. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Nice radar development off the Carolinas 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Eps anyone. Heading in NE forum moved east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 HRRR looks more juicy vs 12z. So there is that at least? Long Island has over 17 inches and it’s still snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, Sn0waddict said: HRRR looks more juicy vs 12z. So there is that at least? Long Island has over 17 inches and it’s still snowing. With less wind likely ratios should be quite high. We saw this with the early Jan storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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