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January 28-30th Possible Nor'easter


Rjay
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Have to avoid getting sucked into run to run windshield wiper effect.  We need to start measuring model pinpoints and actual observations.  No bets are off the table.  Seen so many big storms in past with surprises in terms of track, banding, gravity wave enhancement, dry-slots, winds.  

One thing impressive regardless is the modeling in almost all cases are projecting some serious sustained winds and gusts for coastal areas - NJ/LI and out to RI/Cape.

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2 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

Odd to see some posters being disappointed as if the 6z Nam was gospel. Most on this forum who have been around long enough should better than that.

I know alot of weather enthusiasts who don't take the 6z or 18z runs seriously for that matter .

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1 minute ago, kat5hurricane said:

Odd to see some posters being disappointed as if the 6z Nam was gospel. Most on this forum who have been around long enough should better than that.

It's worse than it's 0z run too tho, and worse than the 6z euro run. It's a fairly dramatic change, especially since it seemed to be leading the way on resolving the double low into one. And then it just went full on double low 

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8 minutes ago, Metasequoia said:

NAM is known for run to run inconsistency and this is a complex setup...

It went from a foot of snow for most of the area to complete out to sea in 1 run two days ago.

It's a very delicate setup as others noted. If this double barrel low idea is overplayed or not real, it'll be better and more consolidated west. There's plenty of dynamics coming in to try to make that happen. 

The 6z was eye candy. I guess it's still possible but it was definitely an outlier. I'm much more encouraged by the Euro ticking west at 6z. 1" liquid to NYC and 1.5" almost to JFK.

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1 minute ago, snywx said:

I think 6-10 within the city limits is a good forecast. Nassau/Suffolk border on east should be in line for an awesome event 12”+. Us up here In the great northwest should be in the 3-6” range. 

I have 1” new this morning and was forecast to get 1/2” for the entire day.  Big time fluff factor here.

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1 minute ago, snywx said:

I think 6-10 within the city limits is a good forecast. Nassau/Suffolk border on east should be in line for an awesome event 12”+. Us up here In the great northwest should be in the 3-6” range. 

I would expect Binghamton to toss out an advisory for me by this afternoon’s cycle. Low end warning event may still be in the cards for us, rest of 12z and 18z will be telling. Very good ratios will pay dividends.

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2 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

I would expect Binghamton to toss out an advisory for me by this afternoon’s cycle. Low end warning event may still be in the cards for us, rest of 12z and 18z will be telling. Very good ratios will pay dividends.

I’m only expecting 3-4” here. Gonna have to be east of the river to really cash in or increase those odds. 

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13 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

It's worse than it's 0z run too tho, and worse than the 6z euro run. It's a fairly dramatic change, especially since it seemed to be leading the way on resolving the double low into one. And then it just went full on double low 

It's just one run though and considering the wild swings of this model, it shouldn't be taken seriously even the day of the event. In other words, don't get too high or too low on any one run, look at the overall trends. I saw the 6z nam and thought it looked nice but also knew that it was just one of those "nam" things.

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5 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

It's just one run though and considering the wild swings of this model, it shouldn't be taken seriously even the day of the event. In other words, don't get too high or too low on any one run, look at the overall trends. I saw the 6z nam and thought it looked nice but also knew that it was just one of those "nam" things.

I hear you, but my point is it didn't just go back to earlier presentations. It gave a completely new look that was much more strung out and worse. Its output was as low as the latest GFS. This late in the game I find it hard to ignore, but I don't deny there's a possibility it will wobble back somewhere to the 0z look (which looks like the latest euro) 

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13 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

It went from a foot of snow for most of the area to complete out to sea in 1 run two days ago.

It's a very delicate setup as others noted. If this double barrel low idea is overplayed or not real, it'll be better and more consolidated west. There's plenty of dynamics coming in to try to make that happen. 

The 6z was eye candy. I guess it's still possible but it was definitely an outlier. I'm much more encouraged by the Euro ticking west at 6z. 1" liquid to NYC and 1.5" almost to JFK.

Exactly. The NAM has been all over the place. Euro/GFS blend is the way to go now, and they are very similar. 

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2 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

I hear you, but my point is it didn't just go back to earlier presentations. It gave a completely new look that was much more strung out and worse. Its output was as low as the latest GFS. This late in the game I find it hard to ignore, but I don't deny there's a possibility it will wobble back somewhere to the 0z look (which looks like the latest euro) 

I wouldn't worry unless other models follow the same look (would like to see that double barrel low disappear) but really, we're getting down to nowcast time anyway.

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Sticking pretty close to numbers I put out yesterday morning. 

NYC/Immediate metro: Yesterday 4-8" -> Now going 6 -10"

Far NW NJ: Yesterday 1-3" -> Now going 2-4"

West of I95 8" tapering to 4" starting along and north of 80 and West of 287

South and East of I95: Holding with 12-18" with the 18" amounts closest to the coast and central and eastern L.I.

In general ratios 12:1 - 13:1 give or take.  Maybe 15:1 northern and western edges of snow shield.

Any changes will come from nowcasting as event unfolds.

Currently very light snow with about .10" new snow.

 

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