January 28-30th Possible Nor'easter

[Snowlover11]

basically held the same. strong precip out into li.  sharper cut off west of the hudson.

[jm1220]

Yeah, seeing posts saying it ticked west. Keep that coming por favor. I don't have access to free maps, hopefully the upper air looks better too. 

[mannynyc]

[Rjay]

[psv88]

Looks almost identical to 18z

[Rjay]

[Jt17]

Kuchera: 

[LibertyBell]

23 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

GFS also should have shown considerably more than it did given how it has 2 closed 500mb low contours SE of Long Island. I think that would be a foot easy from NYC east.

I think the whole Island should be good for 12+. NYC is on the bubble, I'd say 8-12" there-8" Bronx 12" Rockaway. Still need another west push.

This is going to overproduce if anything, there is literally nothing keeping it from going as far west as it can and intensifying storms generally go further west

 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, Jt17 said:

Kuchera: 

LOL damn Boston wins again

This is like 2004 all over again

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Yeah, seeing posts saying it ticked west. Keep that coming por favor. I don't have access to free maps, hopefully the upper air looks better too. 

It does and heavier precip came more inland.

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

Kuchera: 

40 in Boston lol

[Franklin0529]

Just now, MJO812 said:

It does and heavier precip came more inland.

1"qpf into the city 2" on twin forks

[SRRTA22]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

LOL damn Boston wins again

This is like 2004 all over again

40" is cool to see on the maps but it doesn't translate that well in real life..no matter how much you love snow  

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

1"qpf into the city 2" on twin forks

I like 6-12 for NYC and 12 +18 in central Li and 18+ in eastern LI

[jm1220]

I don't have access to 18z free maps but comparing to 12z the Euro definitely looked a little better. Nice more compact closed low that we could still use closing off a couple hours earlier but two closed contours E of Montauk. 700mb also looks better to me, less sloppy. 

[Jt17]

0z at Hour 30:

almost looks like it consolidates the double lows entirely to the west and it's pretty close to the coast... 

 

Compared to 18z at same time:

 

But because it doesn't fully consolidate, at hour 33 on 0z it jumps east about 30-40 miles. How far is nyc out from the bullseye... just saying  

[Franklin0529]

Just now, MJO812 said:

I like 6-12 for NYC and 12 +18 in central Li and 18+ in eastern LI

Sounds about right. I can see some 12-18 down on the coast in some spots

[SRRTA22]

I love big snowstorms - but im not entirely sure Id want 40" worth of snow drop in my city on top of 50mph winds

8-12 will be fine thanks, ill pick up my order tomorrow

[jm1220]

Just now, SRRTA22 said:

I love big snowstorms - but im not entirely sure Id want 40" worth of snow drop in my city on top of 50mph winds

8-12 will be fine thanks, ill pick up my order tomorrow

There won't be 40" in Boston. The Kuchera maps are way overdone for most. But I do think it supports 2 feet where banding is most persistent. 

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I like 6-12 for NYC and 12 +18 in central Li and 18+ in eastern LI

I like 10 in the city, 15 in Nassau County and 20 in Suffolk similar to December 2009

 

[RDRY]

8 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

0z at Hour 30:

almost looks like it consolidates the double lows entirely to the west and it's pretty close to the coast... 

 

Compared to 18z at same time:

 

But because it doesn't fully consolidate, at hour 33 on 0z it jumps east about 30-40 miles. How far is nyc out from the bullseye... just saying  

I think the modeling is pretty locked in on this being a Long Island special. The city may see a mega band or two traverse the area, but they'll be camped out on the island for the duration.

[SRRTA22]

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

There won't be 40" in Boston. The Kuchera maps are way overdone for most. But I do think it supports 2 feet where banding is most persistent. 

Eh idk, this storm is extremely dynamic - Im positive someone up there will near 40" just glad it isnt me haha 

[nycwinter]

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

There won't be 40" in Boston. The Kuchera maps are way overdone for most. But I do think it supports 2 feet where banding is most persistent. 

Do want to briefly touch on the potential for exceptional to extreme
snowfall rates. Both NAM and GFS Bufkit soundings show 80-90 units
of omega coinciding with the favorable snow growth region. Given
that a double barrel low could develop with the potential for an eye-
like feature at some point, wherever the mesoscale snow band sets up
could see 3 to even 4 inches per hour snowfall rates. With this
forecast package, we have capped the totals at 24 inches. But if we
get more confidence (especially if the GFS comes further west in
line with the international guidance), the forecast amounts for
southeastern MA could go up into the 30 to 36 inches range. And with
the winds gusting over 50 to 60 mph and temps well below freezing,
stay off the roads on Saturday if possible.

[SRRTA22]

2 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

Do want to briefly touch on the potential for exceptional to extreme
snowfall rates. Both NAM and GFS Bufkit soundings show 80-90 units
of omega coinciding with the favorable snow growth region. Given
that a double barrel low could develop with the potential for an eye-
like feature at some point, wherever the mesoscale snow band sets up
could see 3 to even 4 inches per hour snowfall rates. With this
forecast package, we have capped the totals at 24 inches. But if we
get more confidence (especially if the GFS comes further west in
line with the international guidance), the forecast amounts for
southeastern MA could go up into the 30 to 36 inches range. And with
the winds gusting over 50 to 60 mph and temps well below freezing,
stay off the roads on Saturday if possible.

What a discussion. SNE getting their weenie on right now, as they should

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

Do want to briefly touch on the potential for exceptional to extreme
snowfall rates. Both NAM and GFS Bufkit soundings show 80-90 units
of omega coinciding with the favorable snow growth region. Given
that a double barrel low could develop with the potential for an eye-
like feature at some point, wherever the mesoscale snow band sets up
could see 3 to even 4 inches per hour snowfall rates. With this
forecast package, we have capped the totals at 24 inches. But if we
get more confidence (especially if the GFS comes further west in
line with the international guidance), the forecast amounts for
southeastern MA could go up into the 30 to 36 inches range. And with
the winds gusting over 50 to 60 mph and temps well below freezing,
stay off the roads on Saturday if possible.

30" will definitely happen somewhere, maybe a small swath from central/eastern Suffolk into CT and MA. 

I still think the best of the event will be around the Boston area down through eastern CT/central and east Suffolk but it will be very impressive to just over the Hudson. The one NAM run can't be taken lock stock and barrel when Euro essentially is an 18z carbon copy. Actually the model that may support the furthest west outcome in terms of banding may be the GFS tonight.

[BxSnowWx37]

It might be possible that nyc cashes in when the western edge mega death band sets up and doesn't move much for hours. Usually its parked in nw jersey but since it's east of the bm ..it could park itself right on top of nyc or just west. No one knows where these bands will set up so who knows. I do think nyc proper gets 8 to 12 easy.

[SRRTA22]

7 minutes ago, BxSnowWx37 said:

It might be possible that nyc cashes in when the western edge mega death band sets up and doesn't move much for hours. Usually its parked in nw jersey but since it's east of the bm ..it could park itself right on top of nyc or just west. No one knows where these bands will set up so who knows. I do think nyc proper gets 8 to 12 easy.

I dont think nyc proper gets 8-12 EASY..we're kind of in a delicate situation haha...Anywhere from queens east is locked though

Id go 6-12" nyc ' 4-8 me and newark 

[Jt17]

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

30" will definitely happen somewhere, maybe a small swath from central/eastern Suffolk into CT and MA. 

I still think the best of the event will be around the Boston area down through eastern CT/central and east Suffolk but it will be very impressive to just over the Hudson. The one NAM run can't be taken lock stock and barrel when Euro essentially is an 18z carbon copy. Actually the model that may support the furthest west outcome in terms of banding may be the GFS tonight.

I agree with most of your points, however the NAM and Euro are more similar than you're remembering:

NAM:

Euro:

 

It takes VERY little to change the totals significantly still. NYC could very well see 8 inches or 20 inches with small 20 mile shifts. And they'd totally be reasonable. That's what makes these storms so hard to predict. And as always banding does whatever the heck it wants. I'm 27 miles west of Brentwood in Queens for perspective. On the NAM output that puts the border of queens almost at 2 feet and the Euro at about 18 inches. 

[Eduardo]

7 minutes ago, BxSnowWx37 said:

It might be possible that nyc cashes in when the western edge mega death band sets up and doesn't move much for hours. Usually its parked in nw jersey but since it's east of the bm ..it could park itself right on top of nyc or just west. No one knows where these bands will set up so who knows. I do think nyc proper gets 8 to 12 easy.

I had this same thought.  I used to live out on LI and can remember being in the modeled jackpot zone 48 hours out only to see it end up west of where it was modeled.  Not saying it’ll happen this time, but it’s a possibility.

[BxSnowWx37]

10 minutes ago, SRRTA22 said:

I dont think nyc proper gets 8-12 EASY..we're kind of in a delicate situation haha...Anywhere from queens east is locked though

Id go 6-12" nyc ' 4-8 me and newark 

Even the lowest model outputs are now over 5 to 6 inches for most of our area. Any shift from 15 to 40 miles west and we are talking snow in feet. As it stands we are in a gd position and I do expect this wiggle west.