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January 28-30th Possible Nor'easter


Rjay
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RGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
425 PM EST Thu Jan 27 2022

CTZ006-007-010-011-NYZ078-080-177-179-280530-
/O.CON.KOKX.WS.A.0001.220129T0000Z-220130T0000Z/
Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Northwest Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-
Northern Nassau-Southern Nassau-
425 PM EST Thu Jan 27 2022

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 13
  inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 55 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut and southeast New
  York.

* WHEN...From Friday evening through Saturday evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible, with
  near blizzard conditions possible. Winds could bring down tree
  branches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

$$
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32 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

I am out in Bethlehem, PA - not really expecting anything.  What is crazy are some of those EPS members.  By my count 10 of those 50 members would give me 12” +.  Brings new definition to the term “Go big or go home.”

That’s what makes this whole thing so strenuous/hard-to-nail-down. This far west we can still pull something great but at this point the ship has almost all but sailed. All eyes now to figuring out where the bands set up

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@wdrag@SnowGoose69@forkyfork  or anyone who might know: does anyone know whether the NWS uses ratios (Kuchera or other) in constructing their snowfall maps or if they just use 10:1?  With the latest NWS-Philly maps being so bullish, it makes me think they're factoring in something like 15:1 ratios, so 8-12" of 10:1 snow becomes 12-18" at 15:1, for the immediate coast, for example.  Thanks!

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4 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

We need a pretty significant move west by the GFS to line up with the Nam and Rgem solutions. If not, I don't know what to think.

Given the lower resolution of the GFS, I would hedge my bets with the higher resolution models. The reason for this is because the best chance of resolving all of the energy issues/ phases/ etc is going to come from models with higher resolution.

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9 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

That’s what makes this whole thing so strenuous/hard-to-nail-down. This far west we can still pull something great but at this point the ship has almost all but sailed. All eyes now to figuring out where the bands set up

Bands?  For which location?  Current models indicate a pretty tight gradeint.  Banding would likely be an issue further out on eastern Long Island.  No coastal/warm fronts to affect increased lift in most areas near NYC and west, unless the storm would track closer to the coast.

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