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January 28-30th Possible Nor'easter


Rjay
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When I say ain't getting it done I mean for I95 N and W.

Coastal sections still see meaningful event.  Not the huge numbers of some prior runs for inland locations but nothing to sneeze at for coastal locations.  Inland needs MAJOR improvements and that is not likely IMO.  Still EURO against everything else along the the more coastal locations up into southeast New England.

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The Kuchera ratios aren't happening except for maybe well inland. That's showing maybe 15-1 ratios for the coast. MAYBE we can do 12-1 here. The winds are going to break the dendrites apart. That said the Euro run was very encouraging that at least this isn't dead. And the other models really aren't far off from something a lot better. We just need the upper lows to close off 6 hrs or so sooner. And we need some kind of help from the southern stream.

Upton is loltastic with the snow ranges from nothing to 21" for me. But I guess that really is the 10 and 90% threshold at this point. 

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I still favor the Euro over the GFS/CMC solutions.  The EURO at 500 looks darn impressive, just not fast enough / far enough south to help western and northern areas of this forum.  I think the upcoming 00Z and 12Z runs you are going to start to see a consensus form leaning more toward the Euro.  Use liquid amounts at 12:1 for snowfall totals.  Kuchera maps are just weather porn.

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3 minutes ago, MANDA said:

I still favor the Euro over the GFS/CMC solutions.  The EURO at 500 looks darn impressive, just not fast enough / far enough south to help western and northern areas of this forum.  I think the upcoming 00Z and 12Z runs you are going to start to see an consensus form leaning more toward the Euro.  Use liquid amounts at 12:1 for snowfall totals.  Kuchera maps are just weather porn.

It still gives N and W 3-6 so at least it's not zero. 

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5 minutes ago, MANDA said:

I still favor the Euro over the GFS/CMC solutions.  The EURO at 500 looks darn impressive, just not fast enough / far enough south to help western and northern areas of this forum.  I think the upcoming 00Z and 12Z runs you are going to start to see an consensus form leaning more toward the Euro.  Use liquid amounts at 12:1 for snowfall totals.  Kuchera maps are just weather porn.

I do think the well NW areas need a lot of help here and are on life support with this one but it hasn't been a surprise given the trends over the last day or so. I'd put the "there's still a decent shot" line at I-287/87 and then along I-84 east of there. By decent I mean a warning level event. There could still be 2-4" or something like that well NW.

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