Volcanic Winter Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 5 minutes ago, tek1972 said: There was a legitimate chance. But should have just said that. A potential storm that would need to be watched. They immediately started saying huge winter storm . Once people hear huge it's over Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk You also can't have people preparing for this literally Friday. IMO we shouldn't project our disappointment on the fact that they started telling people about the storm's potential. Very tough situation with the models split like that, unless their meteorologists were prepared to toss the Euro completely and commit to the GFS no way you can't bypass giving the millions of people that live here ample notice given the potential for a very, very potent storm. I work in an area related to this, if they waited much longer and this pans out, it would be absolutely nightmarish on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 8 minutes ago, Jt17 said: That nam run wasn't included in its guidance. It came after 3:20. That being said the other mesoscale model with any legitimacy the rgem didn't fall apart like the nam at all. In fact the rgem was a little better than it's previous run. There discussion talked about the 18z nam and they were essentially discounting that outcome. Not saying they used that for there graphics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Can we please make a rule on here that prohibits anyone from talking about March 2001 whenever we're expecting a big storm? It's like a curse. 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 NWS Albany has my most likely snowfall amount in Dutchess county as 4.4 with a min of 0 and a max of 14, so the goalposts are indeed still wide. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 00z versus 18z gefs the spread actually increased, total opposite of what you would expect to see getting closer to event. Just nuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, wthrmn654 said: 00z versus 18z gefs the spread actually increased, total opposite of what you would expect to see getting closer to event. Just nuts Maybe im misreading this but it looks like even the western end of the ensembles are still pretty far east? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 10 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: There discussion talked about the 18z nam and they were essentially discounting that outcome. Not saying they used that for there graphics. My bad. That's good to know. It did look ridiculous after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Maybe im misreading this but it looks like even the western end of the ensembles are still pretty far east? Sadly, the western most tracks placements, hasn't budged from 00z, just a smudge east of bench mark, I believe that the eastern side of guidance spread has increased unfortunately, and that is a little concerning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Oh and recons currently being done by hurricane hunter planes . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 It looks like we're pretty much cooked except maybe parts of LI. Bummer that guidance universally trended away from us. We're getting to the point where we would need major models errors just as we approach the short term when those errors become unlikely. Late phase and offshore low was the clear risk with a super fragile trof setup. Obviously with such a sensitive setup, this could always come roaring back. I was hoping we would at least stay within striking distance today so small shifts west would get it done. But now unfortunately we need pretty big shifts. The season of tracking frustration continues... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 3 minutes ago, eduggs said: It looks like we're pretty much cooked except maybe parts of LI. Bummer that guidance universally trended away from us. We're getting to the point where we would need major models errors just as we approach the short term when those errors become unlikely. Late phase and offshore low was the clear risk with a super fragile trof setup. Obviously with such a sensitive setup, this could always come roaring back. I was hoping we would at least stay within striking distance today so small shifts west would get it done. But now unfortunately we need pretty big shifts. The season of tracking frustration continues... Big shifts at the surface are -in reality- very small shifts at H5. All is not lost. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, USCG RS said: Big shifts at the surface are -in reality- very small shifts at H5. All is not lost. Suffolk County LI is still a decent spot, but NYC west is in trouble... approaching longshot territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Byrdhousebv Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Stay with the focus on H5. Does the upper stream energy stay robust when it merges with the the lower stream as it arrives at the bottom of the troth? Small deviations will be consequential, and we won't have reliable indications until at least 12Z tomorrow. (I'm at the Holiday Inn evaluating all this) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 the GEFS actually improved pretty nicely at 250/500mb 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 I think a major part of these snowstorms to people like us, is the unknown as to what you are going to get. I love the snow, but there is also a major component regarding the unknown amount and how it plays out. I think if weather technology ever got so great where you could enter your zip code within 5 days of an event and it told you how much snow you would get to the tenth of an inch, most of the fun and excitement would be gone. It's not just about the snow, it's probably mostly about the ride. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: the GEFS actually improved pretty nicely at 250/500mb Wow.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 4 minutes ago, USCG RS said: Wow.. I mentioned GEFS trended west and got crickets 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, Jt17 said: I mentioned GEFS trended west and got crickets I did not realize that change aloft.. so my bad lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, Jt17 said: I mentioned GEFS trended west and got crickets It's a very minor shift west. And the improvement is partially offset by a slightly shallower mean trof and worse upstream height field orientation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 I think the word "trended" is a bit overused here. The words shifted or moved are more fitting. There obviously are no trends anywhere at any time.. It moved east.. It shifted further east It moved back west.. Etc.. Etc... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, eduggs said: It's a very minor shift west. And the improvement is partially offset by a slightly shallower mean trof and worse upstream height field orientation. Bleeding stopped, need the west trend to commence 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 18z euro looks identical to 12z at hour39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 13 minutes ago, Jt17 said: I mentioned GEFS trended west and got crickets we are cheering on the inside at least I am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Wow they have dropped 28 dropsondes so far . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 18Z EURO out thru 09Z Sat (63 hours) is a TAD deeper at 500 and has lost the dual sfc low and 18Z has one consolidated low further west. Based on this and slightly better look at 500 may produce a decent rest of the run. Stay tuned as they say! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 H5 was a hairs breath away from something much more significant. Northern stream much less suppressive, heights were allowed to rise. Southern stream was actually allowed to eject. We are close. So close. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 27, 2022 Author Share Posted January 27, 2022 Lol the Euro won't give up 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, Rjay said: Lol the Euro won't give up Western outlier. Needs support from something else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Nope, ain't getting it done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, Rjay said: Lol the Euro won't give up Seriously. That was close to something much bigger. Hopefully later with all the dropsondes we get some more clarity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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