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January 28-30th Possible Nor'easter


Rjay
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3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

SNE Mets are pretty insistent that the snow will end up further west than modeled due to the moist inflow and evolution so that might be a weenie to hang your hat on. ;) 
 

There usually is a weenie band on the western end of these that brings surprise high totals. Who knows how that will happen here but to keep in mind. 

Well it will have to be a lot further west for some of us....hoping for 4-8 and will be happy with it.

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5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We can’t really say there have been any model trends over the last several days. All the back and forth between models and their individual runs is more like the windshield wiper effect. Some runs eject the southern stream vort  more quickly and others more slowly. Plus models aren’t great at guessing which convective blob over the Gulf Stream will become the dominant low from 72 hrs out. The Euro would have looked much different if the western of the two lows became the dominant one. But all these varying solutions are within the standard East Coast storm track error range at 72 hrs.  

tracking this since day 10 obscures the fact that this is still far away in model time

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3 minutes ago, jdj5211 said:

1448A9BF-22DA-4700-AE88-D0AEC013FE7C.jpeg

the Euro on it's previous 06z run and 12z run and NAM on it's 12z model run did a similar thing with the low depiction. Hopefully it's just temporary noise that resolves over the next few runs and gets the weenies of the ledge.

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2 minutes ago, jdj5211 said:

1448A9BF-22DA-4700-AE88-D0AEC013FE7C.jpeg

I did notice the low jumped around which might be a sign the models are still having a bit of a hard time recognizing which will become the dominant low. This happened with our only decent snow of the winter so far too that the western low became the dominant one. We can only hope......

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7 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Acceptance of reality is a good thing I've learned over the years. 

I get it but it's only the 3rd qtr and there is still time a lot can happen get a bat in your hands you're  pinch hitting for snowy19 ,,,,geez if we get nammed or models look different throughout the day will everyone feel a wee bit better 

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1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Models can be great at detecting the long range storm signal. But it seems like the the important details often have to wait until we are within 24 to 48 hrs. Even when we are 24 hrs out, there can still be model disagreement. 

It’s why I cringed when yesterday we were seeing big solutions and knew we still had 84-96 hours left then. 

We’re still at lousy end of NAM run range and not even within the 3k, WRF, NMM etc 

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I'm taking a break. Some of you should, too. Clear mind, clear thoughts. Refresh and come back to it later. Along with what was posted about the Tweet from Mike Masco I've read some about this being an anomalous run of the Euro that flubbed positioning a bit. 

I'd say room for a bit of optimism. 

 

See you hotdogs later. 

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1 minute ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

I get it but it's only the 3rd qtr and there is still time a lot can happen get a bat in your pinch hitting for snowy19 ,,,,geez if we get nammed or models look different throughout the day will everyone feel a wee bit better 

What if it's 20 min remaining and you're down by two goals and your forwards can't get out of their own end.....there's time enough, but something has to change.....

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1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said:

I did notice the low jumped around which might be a sign the models are still having a bit of a hard time recognizing which will become the dominant low. This happened with our only decent snow of the winter so far too that the western low became the dominant one. We can only hope......

There really was interference with convection in that storm so it can definitely happen. But the upper air development was good enough to compensate for many of us to get 6-9” from NYC east and in CT/MA up to 13”. This will have WAY more moisture to work with. 

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1 minute ago, weatherpruf said:

What if it's 20 min remaining and you're down by two goals and your forwards can't get out of their own end.....there's time enough, but something has to change.....

might be a good time to use our time out and regroup ,,,,,,let's see what the models are showing the rest of today and more importantly by this time tomorrow

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2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

There really was interference with convection in that storm so it can definitely happen. But the upper air development was good enough to compensate for many of us to get 6-9” from NYC east and in CT/MA up to 13”. This will have WAY more moisture to work with. 

when will the data from those airplanes be ingested by the models?  0z tonight?

 

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https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd

..Guidance Evaluation/Predictability Assessment...

Model guidance for the most recent couple of cycles continues to
show a rapidly deepening (bomb) cyclone in the western Atlantic
over the weekend, but continues to waffle somewhat with its exact
track,
and the relatively fine-scale wobbles can cause notably
different weather impacts. Latest guidance continues to favor an
intermediate/consensus approach for depicting the western Atlantic
storm during the weekend. A significant key to the forecast of the
surface low by late Saturday appears to be exactly when, where,
and how deeply the upper low within the overall trough closes off.
ECMWF runs have been reasonably persistent on the earlier/deeper
side with GFS runs at little later/weaker. Overall the forecast
position for the low on Saturday and Sunday was very similar to
the previous WPC forecast issuance, per the 00Z/06Z model
consensus and taking somewhat of an average position between the
slightly slower EC other faster models. However, incoming 12Z
guidance has shown a slightly eastward/more offshore trend
particularly on Saturday.

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Probabilities from 12Z EURO.

The 6",831920842_622PROB.jpeg.588246445ed1000d06afd7f886e6b920.jpeg 12" and 18" probabilities have come down across this forum as the area of probabilities has contracted at each increment.

Not a good sign.  Not trying to be a downer or cancel the event just stating that as we get closer to event you do not want to see probabilities coming down.

 

12%22+ PROB.jpeg

18%22+ PROB.jpeg

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31 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Those big amounts were garbage because there is no blocking for those amounts.

 

Skewed from members that bought into the idea of capture and stall.  I'm not sure blocking was the variable causing those outputs, because it was never input into the solutions. 

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