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January 28-30th Possible Nor'easter


Rjay
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2 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

This looks pretty good to me. Unless it were to turn due east or e-ne from here this would be a big hit for coastal sections. It's a hair to the left of last night's run.

WX/PT

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_5.png

Too bad the surface low isn't placed on that closed contour to its west.

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Looks perfectly fine to me for 90% of us, maybe not the well NW areas. Low really gets going a good bit E of NC but makes a sharp turn north with the bombing upper air low. Very nice phase but a bit delayed from last run. Not surprising since other models are still decently east of the Euro. Maybe some sort of compromise. 

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Just now, RDRY said:

Too bad the surface low isn't placed on that closed contour to its west.

It actually might be. Models have issues resolving this type of energy and you need to do some investigative work. I would lean towards the west contours given how the storm is exploding. 

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Just now, Franklin0529 said:

Crawling. It stalls for like 8 hrs

That’s the capture from the bombing upper air and surface lows catching up to each other. No question if that happens people will get 20”+ where the heavy snow banding can set up. There will be a behemoth moist fetch in the warm Conveyor belt coming into it as well being lifted over the cold air. 

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Going off of absolutely nothing except recent experience and 30+ years of watching this, this is probably not a storm that hits my immediate area that hard (MMU and Morris County). I think someone mentioned the way the low gets here, and the way it’s forecasted to go favors eastern sections.

Not looking to be a Debbie Downer, just looking to be realistic. Hope I’m wrong. Still only Tuesday, so I would hold off the excitement or disappointment for another day.


.

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5 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said:

January 6/7 1996 was a pure Miller A. While the Boxing Day storm may have grazed the GOM, it really developed off the Atlantic coast. With Miller A storms everyone gets snow and there really isn't much of a screw zone as there are with Miller B storms.

They were both miller A storms.  Both had very similar 500mb setups. The difference was the incredible blocking that occurred with the 96 storm. A meteorite would have gotten stuck under that banana high.

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1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

It's a slow long duration storm

I think that's still a little uncertain. Certainly forward movement has slowed on all of the models. I'm just a little concerned because it's still early. The tick further left with the track and we're looking at an even bigger more intense storm. Given the bombogenesis and the current track, the intensity of the snow could be amazing....we'd be talking 1-3"/hour rates. We'll see what happens in the next 2-3 run cycles.

WX/PT

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Just now, North and West said:

Going off of absolutely nothing except recent experience and 30+ years of watching this, this is probably not a storm that hits my immediate area that hard (MMU and Morris County). I think someone mentioned the way the low gets here, and the way it’s forecasted to go favors eastern sections.

Not looking to be a Debbie Downer, just looking to be realistic. Hope I’m wrong. Still only Tuesday, so I would hold off the excitement or disappointment for another day.


.

This area is still going to do well. You will be measuring snow in inches however while SNE and E LI measure in feet.

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Just now, North and West said:

Going off of absolutely nothing except recent experience and 30+ years of watching this, this is probably not a storm that hits my immediate area that hard (MMU and Morris County). I think someone mentioned the way the low gets here, and the way it’s forecasted to go favors eastern sections.

Not looking to be a Debbie Downer, just looking to be realistic. Hope I’m wrong. Still only Tuesday, so I would hold off the excitement or disappointment for another day.


.

Excellent points--things can change radically

 

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1 minute ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I think that's still a little uncertain. Certainly forward movement has slowed on all of the models. I'm just a little concerned because it's still early. The tick further left with the track and we're looking at an even bigger more intense storm. Given the bombogenesis and the current track, the intensity of the snow could be amazing....we'd be talking 1-3"/hour rates. We'll see what happens in the next 2-3 run cycles.

WX/PT

Someone is going to cook under a band of 3-5" per hour with these dynamics. Probably going to be a screw zone just West of where that sets up. 

The wind is also going to be factor, limiting ratios.

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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

Someone is going to cook under a band of 3-5" per hour with these dynamics. Probably going to be a screw zone just West of where that sets up. 

The wind is also going to be factor, limiting ratios.

Potentially blizzard conditions someplace. Maybe here.

WX/PT

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