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January 28-30th Possible Nor'easter


Rjay
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5 minutes ago, Blizzardo said:

Because the benchmark is too far east for NYC. We need it tucked inside to get burried!

January 26th, 2016 and January 4th, 2018 blizzards were south/east of the benchmark and unloaded on the region. Part of this is where the lows came from prior to arriving near the benchmark.

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5 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

952mb at benchmark would bury the entire region. This isn't a warm core storm of tropical origin where it will be nice and compact from developing so quickly. 

Assuming this is still baroclynically driven.. That precip shield will fan out quite nicely. 

On the cmc it's a warm seclusion though. :D

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3 minutes ago, Mitchel Volk said:

It’s kinda of looking like the 1978 storm.  The only difference is the phasing while the 78 storm was formed by incredible digging this storm may have both.   Of course things can change, but this is interesting for sure.

which 1978 storm ???? there were 2 - one in January and one in February .

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LOL at the Canadian. 952mb SE of the benchmark.

Just look at how ridiculous these winds are. If it verified, it would likely bring a period of sustained hurricane force winds to cape cod and possibly the rest of SE NE with heavy snow.

Just unreal model porn.

Strong signal for a rapidly deepening and very damaging system.

My initial thoughts are that you probably want to be East of the Hudson river for the big, big numbers but I think most of NJ and the Hudson Valley will still do really well. 

If you compare the more recent runs of the GFS to the ones that were showing a bigger storm further West, not much has changed with the upper air pattern. Subtle differences in timing are making big differences. 

gem_mslp_wind_neus_19.png

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27 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

952mb at benchmark would bury the entire region. This isn't a warm core storm of tropical origin where it will be nice and compact from developing so quickly. 

Assuming this is still baroclynically driven.. That precip shield will fan out quite nicely. 

Absolutely agreed! This has all the hallmarks of a KU. If we see 952 pressure (extremely rare) your talking hurricane force  gusts and huge drifting for the coast. 

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17 minutes ago, Mitchel Volk said:

The later one.  I remember the the long range 72 prog forecasted it and we at Lyndon State College we’re impressed by the model performance.  Boy have times have change.

Was still in high school but had access to the data.  Yep, 72HR Spectral did a great job and it was a super success for the LFM which had a long string of failures.  LFM never wavered.  Still have some of the old (now nicely yellowed) difax charts.  Was walking on air as a kid and watching the progress of the LFM cycles.

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4 minutes ago, Rjay said:

I hate forecasting models but I don't see the euro coming further west.  We'll see I guess.  

Not that I think the 12z Euro matters that much in terms of overall outcome but I'd predict it comes in around the same or slightly east. If it somehow did go further west it would be a bit red flag that this may be coming in more west. 

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Just amazed at the potential from this storm if it follows the GEM evolution, that much rapid deepening with very cold air interacting with anomalously warm ocean temperatures suggests some very high snowfall totals are possible, perhaps March 1888 needs to be considered as part of analogue set (if there is an outcome like these model runs are suggesting). 

Think also there was a storm March 1-2 1914 that combined very low pressures, strong winds and heavy snow. That one from historical weather maps was a bit closer to NYC than the track of the Blizzard of 1888. 

My first call on this would be 18-24 inches NYC metro, 24-48 inches Long Island and parts of CT, 12-18 n NJ. Wind gusts 70-90 mph seem possible. This could create emergency situation for much of the region and most of New England. Still time for models to change but I see the nucleus of the storm already over UT, CO and WY. 

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8 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Absolutely agreed! This has all the hallmarks of a KU. If we see 952 pressure (extremely rare) your talking hurricane force  gusts and huge drifting for the coast. 

Anything is possible with these record SSTs in the Western Atlantic. We saw our first 950mb low of the modern era just 4 years ago near the benchmark. Each of the models have been taking turns showing such low pressures.

https://www.weather.gov/okx/Blizzard_Jan42018

  • The development of the blizzard began along the southeast coast on Wednesday, January 3rd. An ampflying upper level trough spawned low pressure off the coast of Florida. The low underwent rapid intenisifcation from Wednesday night through the Thursday morning as it moved north-northeast along the coast. The low passed just east of the 40°N 70°W benchmark Thursday afternoon. The central pressure when the storm developed was around 1004 millibars at 1 pm Wednesday. 24 hours later, the central pressure fell to 950 mb which is a 54 millibar drop. The rapid intensification of the storm led to the heavy snow and blizzard conditions across portions of the region.  
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12 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

The 0Z EURO is a bone crusher, but note on the 48hr. snow totals the E-W gradient.       We need tomorrow's 12Z to look like this and we could be set.

1643500800-ejDSpUEBRLQ.png

 

1643511600-c87xJPHBLm0.png

Tight squeeze for folks like @snywxand myself…not going to be shocked if this one won’t play in our favor while someone just 50-100 miles East pulls 20”.

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2 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Just amazed at the potential from this storm if it follows the GEM evolution, that much rapid deepening with very cold air interacting with anomalously warm ocean temperatures suggests some very high snowfall totals are possible, perhaps March 1888 needs to be considered as part of analogue set (if there is an outcome like these model runs are suggesting). 

Think also there was a storm March 1-2 1914 that combined very low pressures, strong winds and heavy snow. That one from historical weather maps was a bit closer to NYC than the track of the Blizzard of 1888. 

My first call on this would be 18-24 inches NYC metro, 24-48 inches Long Island and parts of CT, 12-18 n NJ. Wind gusts 70-90 mph seem possible. This could create emergency situation for much of the region and most of New England. Still time for models to change but I see the nucleus of the storm already over UT, CO and WY. 

Those totals on LI seem high...

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