Jt17 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. Dont diminish seasonal precedent of trending east with a fast flow. Especially if it starts to show again This is too far out to get excited And it is certainly too far out to dismiss another out to sea possibility Not the definition of insanity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 55 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: https://www.forbes.com/sites/nicholasreimann/2021/08/05/major-atlantic-current-may-be-on-the-verge-of-collapse-scientists-warn/?sh=42b0d96a47aa The study, which appeared in the journal Nature Climate Change, found several signs that Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), of which the Gulf Stream is a part, is slowing down and might be about to collapse.Aug 5, 2021 Interesting article, however it quite clearly says it’s a hypothesis. The additional tweets bluewave posted support the contention that the ssts do have an effect on storms; understood. But again based on the graph published this morning the ssts are 0.5 degrees above historical averages. My point is that there are more factors then sst anomaly’s involved in snow totals, etc. Not trying to derail the thread, but wanted to respond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. Dont diminish seasonal precedent of trending east with a fast flow. Especially if it starts to show again This is too far out to get excited And it is certainly too far out to dismiss another out to sea possibility There seems to be a subforum opinion that we have to have a major snow this January. The pattern is too good. Yet the pattern keeps proving hostile. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 3 hours ago, forkyfork said: the ceiling with this event is super high Which makes the floor lower than the sub basement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 8 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said: Big red flag. Euro has a tendency to hold back energy. Since the Euro doesn’t show it there’s good reason to discard the GFS run. I’m pretty sure the “hold energy back” bias was fixed in its last upgrade but @bluewave would likely know better. It’s at least reason to be suspicious of the last GFS run but we have a few days to see what happens with all the different pieces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, eduggs said: Which makes the floor lower than the sub basement. I think the lowest it could go is zero. Which everyone here should be prepared for if something like the GFS happens. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: I think the lowest it could go is zero. Which everyone here should be prepared for if something like the GFS happens. A couple blizzard runs around 60 hours out followed by a complete whiff is worse than zero IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 7 minutes ago, eduggs said: Which makes the floor lower than the sub basement. 3 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I think the lowest it could go is zero. Which everyone here should be prepared for if something like the GFS happens. We all know the lowest we can go with this is a complete collapse of the eastern seaboard into the Atlantic. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 11 hours ago, MJO812 said: They all literally went with the models and said ots was a big concern yesterday. OTS IS STILL a big concern. I've loved the trends today prior to 18z. But the trof evolution is fraught with fail potential. If that shortwave moving through the SW doesn't round the bend, this misses east or is low impact. We've had no luck with timing issues this year. If the shortwave rounds too quickly, this probably bombs too early and we get mix or rain. But at this point that seems to be the lesser likelihood. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 18z EPS 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 We take and we run 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 The windshield wiper s on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 9 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I’m pretty sure the “hold energy back” bias was fixed in its last upgrade but @bluewave would likely know better. It’s at least reason to be suspicious of the last GFS run but we have a few days to see what happens with all the different pieces. I have not seen the Euro do that much since the upgrade. I actually wrote this on another board The Euro used to always do this with holding back southern stream energy while the GFS would just eject it. Seems this season has had the two models switch (I know... Upgrades, etc). However, I wonder if the GFS has a bit of a bias here and the pattern shift could be ever so slightly stumping it. Just something to ponder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Euro 18Z ensemble mean at 500 looks amazing only to be outdone by the control. Both imply bombing sfc feature abreast of NJ coast heading vicinity ACK Saturday night. PERHAPS a tad too late for interior NJ but control is 18-24" Jersey coast up through central/eastern LI, RI and into eastern Ma. Ensemble mean is 8-12" over same area. Strong signal this far out. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Euro control amazing. Full capture between Montauk and ACK with a 12 hour loop / stall before lifting out. Control should be treated as just one of the ensemble members but shows what could result. 00Z runs should be interesting. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 31 minutes ago, eduggs said: OTS IS STILL a big concern. I've loved the trends today prior to 18z. But the trof evolution is fraught with fail potential. If that shortwave moving through the SW doesn't round the bend, this misses east or is low impact. We've had no luck with timing issues this year. If the shortwave rounds too quickly, this probably bombs too early and we get mix or rain. But at this point that seems to be the lesser likelihood. You still worried about the euro being out to sea? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Euro individual ensemble members for BOS are amazing, ISP very robust as well. MMU (my area) 14 of the 51 have 12"+ on a quick glance. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 48 minutes ago, MANDA said: Euro individual ensemble members for BOS are amazing, ISP very robust as well. MMU (my area) 14 of the 51 have 12"+ on a quick glance. How many have 20"+ back to at least the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 hour ago, Nibor said: We all know the lowest we can go with this is a complete collapse of the eastern seaboard into the Atlantic. Don't threaten me with a good time. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: I've personally had it with storms that trend east and leave my area fringed while Ocean Monmouth and LI get the goods. Been this way a few years now. If this even comes to fruition. Seen it too many times and its frustrating. But then I'm only rarely in the bullseye. But, I also don't want to deal with over two feet of snow. 8-12 is good. We are days away and it hasn't been our year but we'll see. The comparisons being made are all to storms that left north central NJ on the light end. So I'm not expecting a huge hit even if this thing actually happens, which no one will know until the weekend in any case. Cheers and keep us posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 hour ago, psv88 said: We take and we run lol it's amusing to see how the phrases used in the NE forum have migrated to the other subforums Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: It need to get further west but 10" is pretty good in a storm that maxes out under 18" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: I think the lowest it could go is zero. Which everyone here should be prepared for if something like the GFS happens. 6z and 18z runs are less than useless as far as the GFS is concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 hour ago, eduggs said: Which makes the floor lower than the sub basement. You need to move back to CT lol. It's way better for snow than where you are now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: 6z and 18z runs are less than useless as far as the GFS is concerned. I don't know where this thought process came from but I wish it would go away. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: How many have 20"+ back to at least the city. For CP: Two are 20+ (max 23) and 21 of the 51 are 12"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, Nibor said: I don't know where this thought process came from but I wish it would go away. It's true, someone posted the verification scores of the GFS and the 6z and 18z consistently ranked as the lowest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, MANDA said: For CP: Two are 20+ (max 23) and 21 of the 51 are 12"+ Thanks where do you find these? Is it about the same for JFK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, LibertyBell said: It's true, someone posted the verification scores of the GFS and the 6z and 18z consistently ranked as the lowest. And with 18z there isn't that much to even examine. Really the only sort of dramatic shifts were the GFS, Euro largely the same, some lesser models like Icon for example trended west, etc. really not much has happened today lol, just 1000s of anxiety filled messages across a few subforums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now