SnoSki14 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 This is what I mean by over analyzing every model run. It'll just drive you crazy. Check back Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Just now, SnoSki14 said: This is what I mean by over analyzing every model run. It'll just drive you crazy. Check back Thursday true but none of us will do that we are weenies 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Just now, SnoSki14 said: This is what I mean by over analyzing every model run. It'll just drive you crazy. Check back Thursday Aren't the major players still out over the Pacific? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Aren't the major players still out over the Pacific? yep-in data sparse regions so it'll be another 48 hrs before anything is clear here 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 minute ago, Torch said: Yeah I missed those totals here in Floral Park Yeah that's the first time I've seen a storm drop 3 feet of snow in central Suffolk while it rained for the first half of the storm in western Nassau and then we changed over and got a foot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: very high Atlantic SST provides the fuel, which the combo of arctic air and the low ignite.....this is the result. Feb 2013 is a case in point, with ridiculous 3 feet plus totals across Long Island and CT. Or when Binghamton got 40 plus? Lol. I always wondered what it would be like if we got one of those 5-6" monsoons in the summer... during the winter...lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 6 minutes ago, Poker2015 said: Exactly, half of the people in here would get shafted with that track...We would get some, but would be a pretty boring storm for western NJ. I would have received 3” at 12z and I would still get that on this run. You can’t make this up… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Gfs is within the ensemble spread. Just another solution which is still totally possible currently. Not much else to take away from it really. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poker2015 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, Tatamy said: I would have received 3” at 12z and I would still get that on this run. You can’t make this up… Lets inch this closer and hug the coast!! My kids want a big one (and me too). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 3 minutes ago, Blizzardo said: Or when Binghamton got 40 plus? Lol. I always wondered what it would be like if we got one of those 5-6" monsoons in the summer... during the winter...lol Yeah that was just last year....around this time! Those 40" plus totals had a pretty wide coverage too-- I think some got near 50" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 minute ago, EasternLI said: Gfs is within the ensemble spread. Just another solution which is still totally possible currently. Not much else to take away from it really. And still a solid 2 to 4 here. Seen worse even if this tame version pans out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Good example of how sensitive this is. GFS hangs that initial piece of energy back just a bit, and it's enough to kick the storm out east. Probably good even if this is an anomalous run, because I'm letting myself get too amped. The hype must flow but hype is also the mind killer, in a bit of a paradox. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 4 minutes ago, Tatamy said: I would have received 3” at 12z and I would still get that on this run. You can’t make this up… Higher ratios may give you double that even on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyrangers1022 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 I hope my area gets fringed with 3-6 inches. And areas southeast and north east get smoked just to give most people their storm. I'll take that, with a Saturday "taxpayers" storm is what we call it. Easy 15 hours OT 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, nyrangers1022 said: I hope my area gets fringed with 3-6 inches. And areas southeast and north east get smoked just to give most people their storm. I'll take that, with a Saturday "taxpayers" storm is what we call it. Easy 15 hours OT there's been "storms" here where plows are scraping wet roads, sparks flying LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 I'm getting January 2018 vibes from this. Certainly is a thread the needle look. Here are those sharp totals from what was an amazing event for the immediate coast 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Wow I'm so proud of the lack of freaking out in here! Well done forum 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 6 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Gfs is within the ensemble spread. Just another solution which is still totally possible currently. Not much else to take away from it really. Agree, and what we just saw from the 18z GFS is the most likely “bad” outcome for our area, not a runner/cutter. This one is either a big hit or too far east and an eastern New England hit, I don’t care what the twitterologists are saying, this one isn’t a hugger, runner or cutter, the flow is too fast and any PNA correction is going to push it further offshore with the resulting downstream trough adjustment 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyrangers1022 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: there's been "storms" here where plows are scraping wet roads, sparks flying LOL Haha no. We don't have a plow down rule like NYS does. We can run salt without plows. My 10foot Boss V plow is $1200 for a blade, and they last maybe 3 storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Given what we have seen all year, I wouldnt dismiss the GFS run. Not at all. It fits perfectly… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 29 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I dont care if the sun has to go supernova for this to happen-- MAKE IT SO! Liberty, thats a hell of a way to slip sun angle into the discussion. As always … 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Re: SST anomaly, the chart bluewave posted this morning showed 0.5C above historical norms. According to NOAA the bouy for Cape May had 36.7 F and Sandy Hook 34.9F today (too lazy to do conversions). Not sure it has the same effect as 24C+ water in the late summer when dealing with tropical systems in terms of “fuel”. Granted I will take any infusion of moisture possible being in the western zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 GEFS looks a bit east from 12 Z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: GEFS looks a bit east from 12 Z. It's alot further east 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: It's alot further east Yeah just checked the last frames that's a huge jump. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 IMO we shouldn't expect much more then this at this point considering what this winter has delivered so far..... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 11 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said: Re: SST anomaly, the chart bluewave posted this morning showed 0.5C above historical norms. According to NOAA the bouy for Cape May had 36.7 F and Sandy Hook 34.9F today (too lazy to do conversions). Not sure it has the same effect as 24C+ water in the late summer when dealing with tropical systems in terms of “fuel”. Granted I will take any infusion of moisture possible being in the western zone. It matters if it's the gulf stream is warmer than normal, I'm not sure the near coastal waters have much to do with it. Slowing down of the gulf stream and the thermohaline circulation matters too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: It matters if it's the gulf stream is warmer than normal, I'm not sure the near coastal waters have much to do with it. Slowing down of the gulf stream and the thermohaline circulation matters too. What evidence is there that the Gulf Stream is slowing down? I just think the sst anomaly is being given too much weight in the potential to increase snow totals when compared to a multitude of other factors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 3 minutes ago, Torch said: This is not history, what did or didn’t happen up to now has no bearing on Saturday’s outcome. Its called leaving the door open to lesser amounts then some of Mondays models are advertising - a lot of people here are setting themselves up for major disappointment because of 1 days worth runs showing heavy amounts with 4 days still to go ........ 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Geese everybody. Step off the ledge. Could this miss us? Yes. But anyone whose been following should know that by now. You have three pieces of energy and no blocking whatsoever. Models are going to change. Sit back and hold tight. There is the potential for nothing to historic. It unfortunately is a wait and see. Side note : this is why historic storms are just that: historic. They are rare. Not saying it won't happen. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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