coastalplainsnowman Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 15 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Forecasted 2-3 feet here 5 inches Remember what 2-3 feet sounded like then compared to what 2-3 feet sounds like today. Of course 2-3 feet still sounds awesome, but back then it sounded like eleventy feet. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 4 hours ago, NEG NAO said: yes as long as it doesn't come any further west - right now its a benchmark track This is the perfect track for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Just now, bluewave said: We always have less margin for error with +AO and +NAO. A system that goes negative tilt too fast will have mixing issues. So thread the needle refers to the system being less amplified so we can stay all snow. It would be interesting to see what the five biggest all snow storms were with a positive AO and NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Just now, Torch said: So this without blocking, or has something changed north of us? The storm should slow down as it rapidly strengthens and the trough tilts negative. Dont need blocking for a 24 hour storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 ...Weather Highlights/Threats... Key Messages for January 28-30 (Friday-Weekend) Winter Storm: Confidence is increasing that a significant winter storm will create considerable impacts Friday through the weekend from the Mid-Atlantic through the Northeast. While uncertainty continues with the track and intensity of this system, it is becoming more likely that it will bring significant snow, sleet, and freezing rain to the region, including the I-95 metropolitan areas. Hazardous travel conditions are possible due to the combination of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and wind. Close to the immediate Atlantic coastline, strong winds combined with high astronomical tides may lead to coastal flooding. Please continue to monitor for future updates as this system develops. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 She's coming west. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 doesn't get much better than that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 21 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Aren't all events thread the needle events? They could all trend slightly one way or another and cause big changes to the outcome. I've seen mixing or changing or out sea tracks with -AO and -NAO too. I'd rather have a +PNA than a -NAO or -AO. What you really want is a -AO and +PNA combo. That's when you can fire up the weenie bus with some more confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 9 minutes ago, psv88 said: She's coming west. the ceiling with this event is super high 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 10 minutes ago, Joe4alb said: doesn't get much better than that. Actually it can. It could also get worse. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gpsnavigator Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 nudge it a little west, but not too far. I don't want to be in the complete pummel with snow zone, maybe a foot would be neat, but my enthusiasm wanes soon after that. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 The moisture feed for this thing seems even more impressive than the one that nailed WNY and Toronto. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 11 minutes ago, forkyfork said: the ceiling with this event is super high EF Hutton has surfaced. Now I’m starting to worry. As always … 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: It's probably not going to be that far east either, so expect more trending west. 12 inches plus here as is here in SW Nassau, but I want the 20 inch plus totals. Be careful what we wish for. I'm not going to pretend I am not still hoping for a west trend to bring in the 20+ inch totals but also know that too far west and we mix so it's a delicate line. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 9 minutes ago, EasternLI said: The moisture feed for this thing seems even more impressive than the one that nailed WNY and Toronto. Much deeper low. If the stars align this could end up one of the greats 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 33 minutes ago, Joe4alb said: doesn't get much better than that. Actually about 100 miles west of that would be better for the majority of this subforum lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 13 minutes ago, EasternLI said: The moisture feed for this thing seems even more impressive than the one that nailed WNY and Toronto. This storm honestly has way more upside potential than that one did. The models weren't throwing out 2 feet totals with that one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 4 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Much deeper low. If the stars align this could end up one of the greats Agree. Definitely could be a contender. Has that kind of potential. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 9 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Much deeper low. If the stars align this could end up one of the greats I dont care if the sun has to go supernova for this to happen-- MAKE IT SO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 28 minutes ago, forkyfork said: the ceiling with this event is super high Could climate change create an even bigger event than we would otherwise expect? I'm talking about three feet plus totals somewhere.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Leaving energy back gfs It's a concern but there are always runs like these before big events. Have to see what the ensembles show 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 34 minutes ago, EasternLI said: What you really want is a -AO and +PNA combo. That's when you can fire up the weenie bus with some more confidence. Yeah but we can't expect perfection all the time. Those combos are very rare, so we take what we have and make the most of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 GFS way east but not a reason to freak out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poker2015 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 13 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Actually about 100 miles west of that would be better for the majority of this subforum lol Exactly, half of the people in here would get shafted with that track...We would get some, but would be a pretty boring storm for western NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Best we not emotionally react to every waffling run this far out. Just keep monitoring and reporting like you guys do so well here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: GFS way east but not a reason to freak out yet. with a fast flow and no blocking it is certainly an option....nothing set in stone 5 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: with a fast flow and no blocking it is certainly an option....nothing set in stone 5 days out Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 3 minutes ago, Torch said: Woa cowboy very high Atlantic SST provides the fuel, which the combo of arctic air and the low ignite.....this is the result. Feb 2013 is a case in point, with ridiculous 3 feet plus totals across Long Island and CT. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Just now, Brian5671 said: with a fast flow and no blocking it is certainly an option....nothing set in stone 5 days out We want the southern stream cooperating to some extent. If it gets left behind like that it'll maybe end up a Cape grazer and blow up for downeast ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: GFS way east but not a reason to freak out yet. I dont trust any 6z or 18z model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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