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January 28-30th Possible Nor'easter


Rjay
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4 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

If it develops 12-18 hours earlier I think NYC Metro might be bringing out umbrellas but yes I could see why you'd want that up there lol.

Agreed, I think NYC metros best chance for HECs more depends on a deeper low developing like some of the guidance has hinted at. 

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You can't really take the surface maps too seriously at this point and the east/west windshield wiper effect. What we do know is that there looks to be a really big storm somewhere. All the other stuff will be ironed out over the next few days.

It does seem very thread the needle though. A lot will have to line up perfectly to get big snows here so don't get your hopes up too high.

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14 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Honestly being in the jackpot zone with rain just to the SE is not an ideal spot this far out. I would favor the interior at this point but who knows with this winter it could either way. 

In my opinion this one is for eastern LI and eastern NE. The CMC is overamped, which it likes to do at this range. I think the risk here is OTS not hugger or runner. I would not be at all surprised to see this trend east over the next few days

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23 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

The ocean is very dynamic and warm. Storms have been overperforming all winter in terms of QPF. A storm like this could easily dump 2 feet in under 24 hours. 

It’s not impossible at all to get 18-24” or even more (not saying this storm would do it) with a fast mover. 2-3”/hr adds up fast. 2/7/13 lasted 12 hours or so and had 30” in central Suffolk County. 

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