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January 28-30th Possible Nor'easter


Rjay
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18 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

This threat has been dead. Who cares what one op run of a model shows

 

30 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

There is wiggle room which is good. If the phase is legit which it might be then things should tick west. 

However the trough is further east than the inland cutter debacle, the placement of the high is much better. 

But a lot can go wrong this far out too.

It hasn't even been 24 hours dude.

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8 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

That’s about as beautiful of a mean you will see for a KU event for NYC to BOS. This ones very legit. The question is, is this a Nantucket mauler and we get fringed or is this a rain in the tucket and we get buried. 

Yeah, this has solid big time potential for somewhere. It's going to be a long week :lol: good times.

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25 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

OTS is much more likely. If the phasing is off this will end up much further east. 

And that could still play out. There's a lot of time left

I agree with that given the pattern... However, it must be acknowledged that if this continues to amp an inland coastal is not outside the realm of possibilities. Just a possibility, yet one which must be considered. 

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54 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

What are you thinking? The threat is OTS not inland runner with this storm IMO. The flow is still very fast and a lot will depend on the +PNA ridge strength and position

Wide right and inland are both still on the table even with the fast flow.  If this amplifies enough there's nothing to keep it from coming west.  

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33 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I think that’s the least likely possibility. If anything the threat is OTS not inland runner/cutter IMO

Inland is real unlikely but something running right up the coast like an 87 or January 2000 is and due to the relatively stale air mass it appears will be in place you can’t really afford that sort of track here.  You’d flip over pretty fast at the coast if it did  

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6 minutes ago, Rjay said:

We still kinda need a miracle.  The setup is so delicate. 

Delicate for sure. To get a major snowstorm this weekend will be the definition of a thread the needle to say the least. If I had to guess I think this becomes an eastern Long Island, eastern New England event. Everything would have to come together absolutely perfect to give DC - BOS a major snowstorm, the setup (+AO, +NAO, no 50/50 low, ripping fast flow) is not a good one. The +PNA and WAR need to be just perfect in tandem with each other to avoid this going OTS

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Just read Mt. Holly's take. Thought it was a really good breakdown of the situation as it stands. Worth a read, especially the first paragraph. 

 

In the long term, all eyes are on the end of the week as a potential
storm takes shape off the US East Coast. The Arctic high pressure
from midweek remains in control through Thursday. From there, the
range of possible outcomes diverges wildly. With strong ridging
present in the West, a deep trough will dig into the Southeast, with
a strong shortwave embedded within the base. This trough will
gradually tilt from positive to neutral or negative as it moves
towards the Southeast coast. This will spur offshore cyclogenesis,
with its strength and placement dependent on how fast the trough
begins to tilt negative. In addition, the developing storm appears
likely to eventually phase with a northern stream shortwave dropping
out of Canada, which would yield further intensification as it moves
north or northeast. The track of this developing low will then
determine potential impacts for the Northeast and mid-Atlantic.

Based on the potent nature of the shortwaves involved and with
unusually strong baroclinicity likely to be present, this has the
potential to be a strong storm. Certainly cannot ignore the number
of various ensemble system members and occasional deterministic runs
showing sub-970mb cyclones along or within striking distance of the
Northeast and mid-Atlantic coasts. At this early stage, a multi-
cycle consensus of model guidance favors a glancing blow for our
region, with potentially greater impacts towards New England or
Atlantic Canada. However, this system does have some of the
hallmarks of previous high impact storms where medium range models
displayed a right of track (ROT) bias. And ensemble spread has
generally been favoring the left side of the means and deterministic
runs. So we are definitely not out of the woods, but we also have
several days to watch this, and it will likely be some time before
we can definitively say whether there will be any impacts locally.

 

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3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Delicate for sure. To get a major snowstorm this weekend will be the definition of a thread the needle to say the least. If I had to guess I think this becomes an eastern Long Island, eastern New England event. Everything would have to come together absolutely perfect to give DC - BOS a major snowstorm, the setup (+AO, +NAO, no 50/50 low, ripping fast flow) is not a good one. The +PNA and WAR need to be just perfect in tandem with each other to avoid this going OTS

I think this form has zero f's to give about a DC getting in on this. Just put us in play with ENE like the big ones from the last decade and we can fight it out model run to model run. One will be standing at the end.

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