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Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

I’m deleting all that crap. Anyone make a political references in the wx thread again, I’ll just can them for 5 days. We are the most lenient subforum on here….but everyone should know better than to

bristolri_wx
bristolri_wx

My apologies if this is off topic… As we hit 380 pages on this thread, and we wait for the 18z Euro, I just want to express my gratitude to everyone who participates in these threads. The communi

George001
George001

Ok I’ve seen enough to make my preliminary forecast. Now that the Navy is on board, I am very confident that this low isn’t going to disappear. The question is not going to be out to sea or benchmark

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NeonPeon

NeonPeon

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, bristolri_wx said:

Just took the dog for a walk to get his business done. Took twice as long as usual walked almost over a mile round trip to get it done. If that’s not a sign we are in for a big one tonight and tomorrow, I don’t know what else would be. ;)

Good luck. I'm sticking with my understated 9" idea for lowly Newport. No doubt you'll do better. I buy the idea that we will just staying out of the good business from the east, and I have never not seen a death band to the west that is showing up in more detailed modeling. That's every storm I've seen with a classic track.

I hope I'm wrong, because it would be good for everyone, but even if I make it to that amount, it'll blow my son's mind with the drifting and wind.

I'm done now. At some point you have to look out the window, and now's the time for me. Hope it doesn't disappoint too many, and people actually get out in it!

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bristolri_wx

bristolri_wx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, NeonPeon said:

Good luck. I'm sticking with my understated 9" idea for lowly Newport. No doubt you'll do better. I buy the idea that we will just staying out of the good business from the east, and I have never not seen a death band to the west that is showing up in more detailed modeling. That's every storm I've seen with a classic track.

I hope I'm wrong, because it would be good for everyone, but even if I make it to that amount, it'll blow my son's mind with the drifting and wind.

I'm done now. At some point you have to look out the window, and now's the time for me. Hope it doesn't disappoint too many, and people actually get out in it!

Even if RI gets a snow hole, I doubt there will be less than 12” anywhere state wide when it’s done.  Good luck!

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PhineasC

PhineasC

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, dryslot said:

That's the best 3k run up here, 1.53"

Models have all settled around 0.8" liquid here it seems. Pretty consistent aside from the whackjob models.

15:1 ratios seem like a good bet so around a foot, give or take. 

Still going with 6-10 but 18z Euro and 00z NAM brought back a little boom potential.

The more liquid you get the better, IMO, even if the models don't juice it up here verbatim. It seems to me when you have heavy bands rotating over you on east flow they eventually find their way to the whites and get rung out like a dish rag. I'll take the scraps.

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Snowcrazed71

Snowcrazed71

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Connecticut Appleman said:

Just doesn't look like there is a enough westward push to get the moderate goods up here into Litchfield County.  I will admit that I'm envious of others in the bull's eye, but enjoy the ride. (I can always hope Mother Nature pulls a rabbit out of the hat)

Pretty helpful here in Plainville that will do fairly well with about a foot of snow. That is not too shabby in my book. What I do know is there will be at storm that will give us our two to three foot totals again sometime in the future. When that is I have no idea LOL

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IowaStorm05

IowaStorm05

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, NeonPeon said:

Good luck. I'm sticking with my understated 9" idea for lowly Newport. No doubt you'll do better. I buy the idea that we will just staying out of the good business from the east, and I have never not seen a death band to the west that is showing up in more detailed modeling. That's every storm I've seen with a classic track.

I hope I'm wrong, because it would be good for everyone, but even if I make it to that amount, it'll blow my son's mind with the drifting and wind.

I'm done now. At some point you have to look out the window, and now's the time for me. Hope it doesn't disappoint too many, and people actually get out in it!

For Newport I guess that surrounding waters and winds serve to further mess with ratios and that might be an additional reason Newport is a screw zone. Thats on top of topographical matters previously discussed. Its like island environment.

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ncwxlvr

ncwxlvr

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said:

That would be fantastic.

I'm in Maine and I fully expect incredible drifts on the leeward side of my house.  My back (leeward) deck (which sits 5 feet off the ground) may just completely disappear.  This Carolina boy is wicked excited!

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Models have all settled around 0.8" liquid here it seems. Pretty consistent aside from the whackjob models.

15:1 ratios seem like a good bet so around a foot, give or take. 

Still going with 6-10 but 18z Euro and 00z NAM brought back a little boom potential.

I like you to Alex when digging into the soundings. There’s an upslope component to the larger scale synoptic moisture… you can see how the meso-models fluidly wrap QPF from northeast to northwest/west aspects of the larger White Mtn zones.  Final 5,000ft to the surface and below, they see winds move back on the dial to go from NE to NW throughout the event.  It should add low level lift/condensing of moisture compared to the southern side.

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Hoth said:

I'll say this: this doesn't look like the antecedent radar of Jan '15. That one really backed into CT off the water from the southeast. Looks a little more like 2013.

Which makes it all the more insane what it's going to do. Good storm, I'm sure, but man.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Models have all settled around 0.8" liquid here it seems. Pretty consistent aside from the whackjob models.

15:1 ratios seem like a good bet so around a foot, give or take. 

Still going with 6-10 but 18z Euro and 00z NAM brought back a little boom potential.

The more liquid you get the better, IMO, even if the models don't juice it up here verbatim. It seems to me when you have heavy bands rotating over you on east flow they eventually find their way to the whites and get rung out like a dish rag. I'll take the scraps.

Been consistent on all the models, Other then the GFS, QPF has been in the 1.15-1.24" range, The 0z 3k and 12k Nam as well as the HRRR raised the bar a bit, My thinking is 14:1 ratios of where i think it will be here which keeps it in the 12-18" window.

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wx_observer

wx_observer

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, ncwxlvr said:

I'm in Maine and I fully expect incredible drifts on the leeward side of my house.  My back (leeward) deck (which sits 5 feet off the ground) may just completely disappear. 

A pretty impressive drift happens on the other side of my fence in the neighbors yard during these potent nor’easters.  It goes from bare ground near their house, to nearly 6’ high at the fence.  Hope to see it again tomorrow—it’s a definitive sign of a 5 star snowstorm.

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IowaStorm05

IowaStorm05

Posted
Posted

light snow falling in Willimantic now.

No antecedent dry air problem this time. She don't hold back. It is of note how moist the air has been today. And, this time last night the storm was not expected to hit until 2am.

A better mood than at 1pm today with the bad Euro run. Starting my day at work with that, I told some people there were signs of the storm backing away and It is a good thing I got updated quickly by 3 because there are some people who make major decisions that affect multiple people with my reports because as bad as I look on this forum compared to Mets, I am useful for some laymen so they come back every time. 

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