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Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

I’m deleting all that crap. Anyone make a political references in the wx thread again, I’ll just can them for 5 days. We are the most lenient subforum on here….but everyone should know better than to

bristolri_wx
bristolri_wx

My apologies if this is off topic… As we hit 380 pages on this thread, and we wait for the 18z Euro, I just want to express my gratitude to everyone who participates in these threads. The communi

George001
George001

Ok I’ve seen enough to make my preliminary forecast. Now that the Navy is on board, I am very confident that this low isn’t going to disappear. The question is not going to be out to sea or benchmark

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tunafish

tunafish

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

 

No.

About as classic a going down with the ship forecast as there ever was. PWM ended up with 2 inches after a blizzard warning was hoisted to Sugarloaf.

I think like 5 or 6 of our warnings verified out of 33. 

Was that the one where York county still ended up with double digits?  That one stung.

 

Edit: saw your map.  Me and @Digityman were toaster bathin' together on that one.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:
Most difficult forecast I have ever observed in multiple decades of following winter weather. Anyway, here is my view on the impending Blizzard (hopefully, maybe) of '22. For in depth look at why this forecast is so excruciatingly, if the event that you have a rather keen interest in watching paint try, have read for a glimpse into my rationale. Otherwise, should be firing up around midnight from south to north, and going (hopefully) strong throughout the day tomorrow before winding down Saturday evening. If this comes together as is should/could, it has the potential to deposit snowfall rivaling that of the Blizzard of 1978, however, confidence in an outcome of that magnitude is tempered by some odd phenomenon going on offshore (see blog). Infrastructure is likely to be paralyzed tomorrow, unless I am somewhat delusional, which is a possibility.
Now time to sleep for about 12 hours-

FINAL CALL.png

So I should expect between 6-30”? 
 

I’m half kidding lol.

It was nice to see the vast majority of stations / folks not lower or adjust based on a few weird model runs.  No one will nail this one and no one has high confidence . It literally is 100% still up on the air 

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MegaMike

MegaMike

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

This stuff does fascinate me. So I'd intuitively think that the knowledge gained by seeing parts of the storms formation into reality would far exceed any initialization complexities...like, the difficult initialization of reality is still better than an easy initialization of a future cyclogenesis event out in model fantasy time. Maybe not.

Agreed!

They're all great models and they have their own purposes, but they have limitations as well. 

Through experience (running WRF/RAMS/ICLAMS simulations), they get inaccurate during dynamic events involving a copious amount of latent heat - You'd think that running a simulation for Feb, 2013 would be easy using analysis data (initialization data of a modeling system). Nope! I tried with the GFS, FNL, NAM, HRRR, and ERA... Nothing performed well in terms of QPF distribution across New England.

If you look at hurricane models, they're run at fine resolutions to resolve convective/latent heat processes. Despite that, finer resolution models rely on global models (and hence, regional models) to 'feed' their initial and boundary conditions. Artifacts in == artifacts out. That's why I'm not too concerned about the mesos showing a dual low structure at the moment (we'll see what happens at 00 UTC).

Last thing. This isn't directed at you, but the NAVGEM is used by the Navy for the Navy. Please don't use it for complicated atmospheric interactions. The Navy only cares about coastal areas, oceans, and relatively deep bodies of water. That's its purpose :hug:

 

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

He’s now like Al Michaels when he will unabashedly talk about sports gambling in the middle of the broadcast…he knows he’s a legend and doesn’t give a shit about playing it safe. 
 

That said, Harvey did this in the 2/15/15 storm too. He was basically the only met who stuck to his guns on huge snows in E Ma despite model guidance trying to give us a pedestrian advisory event. Sometimes the upper air is just so overwhelming. I also think he knows that there’s the fluff factor to lean back on….if the storm ends up a bit more seaward, there’s still the exceptional ML/Deformation that will have incredible snow growth and maybe winds not quite as strong in that scenario. 

What about Fish ? He is the heir apparent “king of Boston” . He hasn’t wavered either . And he cares about areas other than E MA. He grew up in Colchester , CT . And tends to be conservative 

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

He’s now like Al Michaels when he will unabashedly talk about sports gambling in the middle of the broadcast…he knows he’s a legend and doesn’t give a shit about playing it safe. 
 

That said, Harvey did this in the 2/15/15 storm too. He was basically the only met who stuck to his guns on huge snows in E Ma despite model guidance trying to give us a pedestrian advisory event. Sometimes the upper air is just so overwhelming. I also think he knows that there’s the fluff factor to lean back on….if the storm ends up a bit more seaward, there’s still the exceptional ML/Deformation that will have incredible snow growth and maybe winds not quite as strong in that scenario. 

This also looks a lot better for E Mass/Boston than back this way so I think it's an easier call out that way.

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bristolri_wx

bristolri_wx

Posted
Posted

My apologies if this is off topic…

As we hit 380 pages on this thread, and we wait for the 18z Euro, I just want to express my gratitude to everyone who participates in these threads. The community here is incredible, and I learn a little more with every storm. Plus the humor and drama can’t be topped. I lurked a while before joining, and then lurked more before easing myself posting, and now this place is part of my daily routine, especially during the active weather months. So thanks to everyone who makes that possible here, regardless of storm outcomes.

Now back to our regularly scheduled bi-polar model reaction, already in progress.

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

My apologies if this is off topic…

As we hit 380 pages on this thread, and we wait for the 18z Euro, I just want to express my gratitude to everyone who participates in these threads. The community here is incredible, and I learn a little more with every storm. Plus the humor and drama can’t be topped. I lurked a while before joining, and then lurked more before easing myself posting, and now this place is part of my daily routine, especially during the active weather months. So thanks to everyone who makes that possible here, regardless of storm outcomes.

Now back to our regularly scheduled bi-polar model reaction, already in progress.

Welcome to the circus but to anyone else lurking, hiding in the bushes…come on in. The admission is free and there is something for everyone. 
 

GL weenies. It is what it is at this point. 

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PhineasC

PhineasC

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

My apologies if this is off topic…

As we hit 380 pages on this thread, and we wait for the 18z Euro, I just want to express my gratitude to everyone who participates in these threads. The community here is incredible, and I learn a little more with every storm. Plus the humor and drama can’t be topped. I lurked a while before joining, and then lurked more before easing myself posting, and now this place is part of my daily routine, especially during the active weather months. So thanks to everyone who makes that possible here, regardless of storm outcomes.

Now back to our regularly scheduled bi-polar model reaction, already in progress.

NE crew is the best. I have posted elsewhere. This crew is the best. Plain and simple. 

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