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Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...


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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

RAP has been improving since 18z....hopefully its onto something.....HRRR has been getting worse.

 

Glad there's good short term model agreement on the trends.

Actually latest 20z HRRR took a nice jump west tomorrow AM...more consolidated low. So maybe there's a trend there with the RAP we can work with?

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Actually latest 20z HRRR took a nice jump west tomorrow AM...more consolidated low. So maybe there's a trend there with the RAP we can work with?

Part of me is like eff it, and sort of go with a lean on one low. Maybe not those exotic NAM and Euro solutions, but I feel like the models went too wild with that. You would think synoptics would rule. One caveat, this is faster now...maybe owing to that late capture. 

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Part of me is like eff it, and sort of go with a lean on one low. Maybe not those exotic NAM and Euro solutions, but I feel like the models went too wild with that. You would think synoptics would rule. One caveat, this is faster now...maybe owing to that late capture. 

Yeah my gut says we see a bit of a trend to consolidate the low again somewhere near or just S of the Islands...or maybe just E of CHH....I'm a little skeptical of those solutions where it doesn't do it until its over George's Bank when you have this ridiculous upper air support several hundred miles southwest of that.

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5 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

I didn't realize that... is that just observation or their actual protocol?

That's Kevin's opinion because it doesn't have as much snow as he wants.

It is definitely a tool any office can use (we have QPF available to bring into the forecast). But every office does their own ratios and weather grids to create snowfall amounts, so no they didn't just pull in the HREF snow amounts. 

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah my gut says we see a bit of a trend to consolidate the low again somewhere near or just S of the Islands...or maybe just E of CHH....I'm a little skeptical of those solutions where it doesn't do it until its over George's Bank when you have this ridiculous upper air support several hundred miles southwest of that.

Yeah I agree with this. The jet stream evolution just screams a crusher for most of SNE but that convection over the Gulf Stream wants to screw us. 

Seems like this is just going to wind up being a weird evolution overall.. and it has definitely sped up a lot.

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1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

That's Kevin's opinion because it doesn't have as much snow as he wants.

It is definitely a tool any office can use (we have QPF available to bring into the forecast). But every office does their own ratios and weather grids to create snowfall amounts, so no they didn't just pull in the HREF snow amounts. 

They should probably be using the RAP. According to Kevin, it’s “very good” in the biggies 

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1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

That's Kevin's opinion because it doesn't have as much snow as he wants.

It is definitely a tool any office can use (we have QPF available to bring into the forecast). But every office does their own ratios and weather grids to create snowfall amounts, so no they didn't just pull in the HREF snow amounts. 

Lol thanks that's what I assumed but didn't know if I had missed something

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Just now, snowman21 said:

Nice job by Ryan explaining all of the complexities with the forecast.

Yea. My wife couldn't care less about the weather but she watches. Kind of creepy though, I think she has a crush on him. So I hope the snow monster never swings thru Southbury, she'd suddenly be interested in snow and hop in for a 'joy ride'. Sure...ok. 

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