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Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...


Typhoon Tip
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6 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I still have a question regarding the 10:1 ratio. Wouldn't this be more like 15:1 with the temperatures? In essence it would bring the numbers up a little more with the accumulations

They'll be better than 10:1 but I'm not sure we'll crazy ratios given the wind. Maybe under a mid-level band inland. Purely a guess, but I was thinking 12-14:1 on average. Soundings are good though, so well see. 

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55 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Random thought this afternoon... but I think Long Island could be the jackpot here. 

 

49 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I've noticed that on the lot of the short term guidance, that massive QPF bomb has been creeping north slowly so that we're seeing it over LI....I'm wondering if that just ends up creeping NNE across the sound into SE CT.

fronto from the initial surge looks great for the CT coast on both nam runs.   Should be nice floor on the event even if the slp manifestations don't work out favorably for some.  If somebody should get hit with both that'd be a sneaky jackpot candidate.  I like the LI idea, though I might take another darkhorse with Newport RI.

namconus_temp_adv_fgen_700_neus_fh9_trend.thumb.gif.19f77e57dcc318a080e88375657775b1.gif

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6 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I still have a question regarding the 10:1 ratio. Wouldn't this be more like 15:1 with the temperatures? In essence it would bring the numbers up a little more with the accumulations

 

2 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

They'll be better than 10:1 but I'm not sure we'll crazy ratios given the wind. Maybe under a mid-level band inland. Purely a guess, but I was thinking 12-14:1 on average

I think this is the correct take. Take the climo average during this event because of the wind. But under the band will probably be able to push 15:1 still. But ratios rely on so much more than temp alone that I really don't factor them in at all other than is the lift collocated with the ideal temps.

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14 minutes ago, radarman said:

 

fronto from the initial surge looks great for the CT coast on both nam runs.   Should be nice floor on the event even if the slp manifestations don't work out favorably for some.  If somebody should get hit with both that'd be a sneaky jackpot candidate.  I like the LI idea, though I might take another darkhorse with Newport RI.

namconus_temp_adv_fgen_700_neus_fh9_trend.thumb.gif.19f77e57dcc318a080e88375657775b1.gif

 

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20 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I still have a question regarding the 10:1 ratio. Wouldn't this be more like 15:1 with the temperatures? In essence it would bring the numbers up a little more with the accumulations

There's probably not much usefulness in looking at/posting 10:1 maps right now - except for the outer cape, ptype shouldn't be an issue so might as well just post the qpf accumulations. 10:1 snow maps can be a useful guide for "qpf falling as snow" in situations where that matters, although tons of caveats with that obviously.

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32 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Tough forecast!

If the first low comes a little closer the south coast is going to get hammered.

The amount of precip just south of LI is incredible.

 

Seriously - it's like 75 miles - which is like an ant fart in the scheme of things.

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32 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

You can pick out the veterans here easily. Not mentally exhausted, don't freak out every 6 hours.

I don't remember if it was this forum or NYC, but there used to be model comparisons at initialization through the current valid time, some posters used to actually look at water vapor loops and satellite and try to judge which model seemed to be most correct at an early frame.  That was about 10 years ago, but it gave confidence that one model may have a better handle than others just based on initialization and 3 and 6 hour forecasts vs actual conditions.

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not buying this solution either...

Continuity blows harder than the winds being modeled - 

At this point I'm resolute to rely on now cast.  Stay the present course on current snow and wind coverage, and adjust down(up) accordingly.

I realize television talent and back-office officials don't have that luxury when it comes to advising the public, but get creative with the language - some times ya gotta do your job.  Heh.

Something like, "I apologize that I cannot confirm the higher end of the snow fall potential at this time, but the potential is still there. Pleas check in regularly as we will be updating this to keep you informed, as the storm's impacts become more clear..."

sumpin' like ghat -

Nice. A post from Tip in plain english that doesn't make my head hurt.

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