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Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...


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Just now, bristolri_wx said:

I mean at this point if the Euro stays on point at 12z, then you just start mostly ignoring the other output unless you see really see drastic changes at 500mb and 700mb. @Ginx snewx has stressed this and I believe this too.  It's just so UNUSUAL for this type of disagreement this close in, but then again, this is an very anomalous setup, so maybe resolution isn't on your side in this scenario...  also, anything that NCEP is running with an FV3 core doesn't seem to be getting a good handle on this.  Something for them study after the storm if the Euro/NAM solution holds up.

I think it will tone down a bit, but not like the NAM.

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Shoot for the stars. If you fail, you'll still... post frothing rage, righteously indignant at the injustice of it all!

I forgot how the phrase goes.

I've been thinking 9 inches in my back yard for days. That'd be top 5 in my time here. I know that wouldn't raise an eyebrow elsewhere. Any more is gravy. I know plenty of guidance shows more. Once bitten, twice shy.

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3 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

I mean at this point if the Euro stays on point at 12z, then you just start mostly ignoring the other output unless you see really see drastic changes at 500mb and 700mb. @Ginx snewx has stressed this and I believe this too.  It's just so UNUSUAL for this type of disagreement this close in, but then again, this is an very anomalous setup, so maybe resolution isn't on your side in this scenario...  also, anything that NCEP is running with an FV3 core doesn't seem to be getting a good handle on this.  Something for them study after the storm if the Euro/NAM solution holds up.

I feel like every storm we talk about how unusual it is that there's disagreement. I think there is just a phenomena where the more specific the expected result seems to become defined, the more variance there appears to be. We have far more consensus now than yesterday, and so on.

It's most sensible for those on the edges, as always.

 

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4 minutes ago, NeonPeon said:

Shoot for the stars. If you fail, you'll still... post frothing rage, righteously indignant at the injustice of it all!

I forgot how the phrase goes.

I've been thinking 9 inches in my back yard for days. That'd be top 5 in my time here. I know that wouldn't raise an eyebrow elsewhere. Any more is gravy. I know plenty of guidance shows more. Once bitten, twice shy.

I think you're being conservative.  It won't take much for us to get 12-18" out of this one.  No p-type issues on any model for us.  Considering someone somewhere is gonna get 24-30" to the NE of us figuring we get half of that isn't outlandish.  Even the RI snow holes are over a foot on most of the guidance.

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3 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Now post the RGEM sounding same time. LOL

Lol I don't want to upset the weenies. Their inner weenie anxieties are high enough without someone living in hawaii bumping up the worst model. 

I remember going to bed with all the models showing flush hits and waking up the day before a storm with a couple of models pissing in the cheerio bowl.

In reality, convective issues can happen and can steal moisture and screw around with cyclone development and precip distribution which is the one big wildcard that won't be sorted out until gametime.

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You can definitely see the convective feedback on the HRRR and how it want to collocate the best surface pressure falls with the explosive convection. Normally we’d say toss, but guidance is all latching onto this and maintaining a surface low to the east under it. The latest HRRR run is showing improvement in this regard, however.

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