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Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...


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52 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Man H5 looks great. I dunno....I feel like the low should concentrate near the vort max or at least the other low should have a shorter life span.

Agreed ...

I'm not "sweating" these peregrinated model solutions like this...  The situation is sooo sensitive to those convective feedback processes. It's really like it's outside the technological ability of the models to figure that out ahead - almost fractal/chaos ?  you know -   "if it happens, it happens"

When it doesn't, we get 00z NAM-like solutions.  When it does, we get GFS.  GFS has been wholly and totally committed to pearling lows all along. It's clear that "its" feedback dumbs this from a magnificent to just above medium impact.   

I dunno -seems this is the deterministic rub with this particular storm - the unknown wildcard.   Like we joked before, "we can be 100% that we are going to the casino; what happens there, not so much ...

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Good Morning

I have not been on the forums since last evening.  I have not gone back and read the many pages either.

Quick thoughts on my layman read of the models without getting into the weeds.

 Some of last evening and overnight runs were epic

There now seems to be a slight shift east again. 

The models are picking up this double barreled low.  The lead one seems to be mucking up the super strong solutions.

Just noise differences along the immediate coast but big differences for us on the edge

Takeaway  I hope this trend with the lead low does not continue and shifts east.  On the other hand won't there be a deformation band well inland?  Sometimes there is a double max way out west.  Maybe for me (Im selfish) that would set up here and along the Conn river valley

Enjoy the storm.  Going to be an enjoyable ride watching it play out

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2 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Yes, there and also Long Island, except for for Western Long Island. I wouldn't be surprised if they extend these blizzard warnings through most of Connecticut may be stopping around Litchfield County

The rest of Connecticut probably won't meet the wind criteria.

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2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

On behalf of all our western-fringed friends: NO SHIT

First of all, if you even want to say Western fringes maybe slightly affected.. Then we're talkin back in Eastern New York. At this point Connecticut itself is pretty much locked into Where We Are as far as accumulations. I'm so surprised that the fear of things changing drastically are that much of a concern LOL. At this point these slight little changes mean nothing. I wouldn't be surprised if this afternoon they go the other way, and then go back the other way again tonight. We're getting what we're getting and there will be some surprises good and bad. So just enjoy what we're getting because we weren't getting any of this a day and a half ago. ;-)

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3 minutes ago, Mr. Windcredible! said:

I think we're all in agreement that naming winter storms is a stupid practice...but I can't help but notice Ch3 in CT has gone with the name 'Bobby'. I can't think of a more underwhelming name for a storm of this magnitude. Cringeworthy.

They were just looking for a gender neutral name.  That's the new criteria.  

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