Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[ice1972]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This run is also shoving the low level fronto a little further inland into eastern Mass, too, which will negate losing the mid level band if that continues, as things tic west a bit more. Some hints of it now briefly getting back to near my area down to Wilmington and through metro west into Norwood area at height, before collapsing back to coast, now that this is tracking a bit closer

I’m sorry - wut exactly is this map?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

27 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

EURO did tick west a hair for western zones, but not enough to pork easties...perfect run

 

It’s not perfect for WOR but we’ll buy it right now before it slides a tick or two east tomorrow.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Someone in the southern half zone will get 40"+

Keeps edging NW...

Drunk in Tolland will, after he was adamant about no big boys in la nina. I see how this meh-ing works now. I should of held out a tick longer.

[George001]

19 minutes ago, ice1972 said:

Don’t kid yourself….there’s like 3 weeks left to work with - after that the elevation idiots have the advantage for like a couple more weeks then it’s Morch and we all know how that goes….

March 2018 and 2013 say otherwise, March is a winter month.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Eastern Cape is close to rain taint at beginning on European, surface temps mid 30s at start.  Somehow MVY stays a smidge colder than Hyannis.  Any more West ruins it.  Two Summers in Harwichport 1970s/1980s.

[NotSureWeather]

I’d prefer if the west ticks ceased.

[The 4 Seasons]

3 minutes ago, joey2002 said:

Could look a lot like the Juno band 

At 12Z it was the #1 analog and at 00Z it was the #3 analog on the NAM runs and based on what i've seen with this storm and that it's pretty similar at multiple levels. I hate to say it and i know some on here will nail me to the cross for that but its hard not to see it. Not saying it plays out exactly like that but something similar wouldn't surprise me at all. East CT does great, even better than expected and a sharp cut off somewhere in central CT with low end warning snowfall gradient.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Even with 3" qpf it's tough because you need ideal snow growth for hours.   The winds will have a say in that. 

Well, 40" snowfall and depth are different 

[40/70 Benchmark]

38 minutes ago, ice1972 said:

I’m sorry - wut exactly is this map?

Low level frontogenesis....lift

[TheSnowman]

Sitting here at a table editing a video in LA.  With the Boards at their quietest and the Witching Hour just 2 hours away with What Decision I make.  I'm feeling like YET Again, like Climo always does, Western Areas will win wheather CT or Worcester or SNH, and Northern RI / West of Boston will be a mini-screw zone.  

 

No decision here yet, but leaning towards No to flying in.  

[NotSureWeather]

2 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

Sitting here at a table editing a video in LA.  With the Boards at their quietest and the Witching Hour just 2 hours away with What Decision I make.  I'm feeling like I've Again, Western Areas will win, and Northern RI / West of Boston will be a mini- screw zone.  

 

No decision here yet, but leaning towards No.  

beer?

 

edit- If you can afford to make the trip, why not? If you get here and it’s disappointing it will still be better than staying in LA and regretting missing a monster.

[TheSnowman]

6 minutes ago, NotSureWeather said:

beer?

 

edit- If you can afford to make the trip, why not? If you get here and it’s disappointing it will still be better than staying in LA and regretting missing a monster.

The amount of people I would make angry, gigs lost, money lost, meetings changed.  The rental car back at 1 Airport 6 days early,, Expensive Uber to the other airport, then DOES SW CANCEL the MDW to Hartford flight?  What do I do when I get to Hartford if I do?  

 

It's a MASSIVE Massive undertaking.  That then effects my next trip to Alabama and the LA trip after it.  

[NotSureWeather]

6 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

The amount of people I would make angry, gigs lost, money lost, meetings changed.  The rental car back at 1 Airport 6 days early,, Expensive Uber to the other airport, then DOES SW CANCEL the MDW to Hartford flight?  What do I do when I get to Hartford if I do?  

 

It's a MASSIVE Massive undertaking.  That then effects my next trip to Alabama and the LA trip after it.  

Sounds like a tough decision, but have you considered the blizzard part? It might be pretty crazy…

At the same time though, at some point another big storm will happen. Just impossible to say when, or even if this one completely works out.

Flip a coin. If it comes up you don’t go and it’s not a relief, just go anyway. 

[Roger Smith]

NAM 06z is creating a superstorm that will obliterate much of New England and Long Island. What else can you say? 

Looks to be rotating enough to bring icing to the Maine coast but have to think that S+ will prevail any distance inland.

Extreme circulation depicted at 36h near 40N 69W -- it's probably heading for a graze past the cape at 955 mbs. 

[Roger Smith]

This is a real day after tomorrow solution. It is the NAM so maybe there is hope for the survival of the species. 

[SnowHole413]

06z NAM holds. Crushes everyone 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

This is a real day after tomorrow solution. It is the NAM so maybe there is hope for the survival of the species. 

NAM now it's in its deadly zone 24-36 hours out, this is the solution we want

 

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

NAM 06z is creating a superstorm that will obliterate much of New England and Long Island. What else can you say? 

Looks to be rotating enough to bring icing to the Maine coast but have to think that S+ will prevail any distance inland.

Extreme circulation depicted at 36h near 40W 69W -- it's probably heading for a graze past the cape at 955 mbs. 

Hurricane force winds and a massive storm surge too

 

[Roger Smith]

That is pretty much the equal of the Cleveland superbomb of Jan 26 1978 in terms of continuous deepening and considerable brief rotation of surface features. I was actually in a weather office that day in Ontario and plotted up a map with a 955 mb center. The rotation was so strong that cold south winds were creating squalls on the north shore of Lake Erie and winds there were gusting to 100 mph. Of course that's on the ocean side of this storm but the west side would be like the Ohio-Indiana-Michigan blizzard side. That's all I can really compare this to, other than maybe extratropical Irene hitting Ireland in 2017. 

Question is, real or imaginary? On to the GFS to see what Sleepy has to say about it. 

[TheSnowman]

I just bought some time, big time, but I Knew this would happen.  SW cad negligence flights Already into ESNE, MEANING the Closest airport I can get to is Buffalo.  I'll have to drive from 10:30pm to 5am to Boston.  I presume I can do a 1 day rental and they set it mine not getting it until Sunday in Boston?  

 

But now I can sleep.  1pm flight out of Burbank which also helps vs. a 6am out of LAX which I changed my Hartford flight from.  Never flew into Buffalo before.  BUT I'LL BE Driving in it at Those hours!  

 

Do Note!!!!  ALL the RI weather guys think this is Just a 12-18 storm.  PLEASE note that.  

[Organizing Low]

2 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

I just bought some time, big time, but I Knew this would happen.  SW cad negligence flights Already into ESNE, MEANING the Closest airport I can get to is Buffalo.  I'll have to drive from 10:30pm to 5am to Boston.  I presume I can do a 1 day rental and they set it mine not getting it until Sunday in Boston?  

 

But now I can sleep.  1pm flight out of Burbank which also helps vs. a 6am out of LAX which I changed my Hartford flight from.  Never flew into Buffalo before.  BUT I'LL BE Driving in it at Those hours!  

 

Do Note!!!!  ALL the RI weather guys think this is Just a 12-18 storm.  PLEASE note that.  

And here I am thinking whether I should drive from Vermont lol 

[wxsniss]

Blizzard warning up for all east coastal Mass including Boston

[ROOSTA]

1 minute ago, wxsniss said:

Blizzard warning up for all east coastal  Mass including Boston

Probably will be extended back inland. I'm amused looking at the accumulation maps on Hi-Res models depicting the banding feature in animation.

 

[Johnno]

The NAM slays, she’s a beaut Clark 

[LibertyBell]

28 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

That is pretty much the equal of the Cleveland superbomb of Jan 26 1978 in terms of continuous deepening and considerable brief rotation of surface features. I was actually in a weather office that day in Ontario and plotted up a map with a 955 mb center. The rotation was so strong that cold south winds were creating squalls on the north shore of Lake Erie and winds there were gusting to 100 mph. Of course that's on the ocean side of this storm but the west side would be like the Ohio-Indiana-Michigan blizzard side. That's all I can really compare this to, other than maybe extratropical Irene hitting Ireland in 2017. 

Question is, real or imaginary? On to the GFS to see what Sleepy has to say about it. 

How close is this to a triple phaser?

 

[Roger Smith]

That was one for sure in 1978, the Great Lakes windstorm of Nov 9 1913 probably another. I don't know if this qualifies technically or not, will look into it. It is not a whole lot different from the Blizzard of 1888 in terms of track and intensity. I think that one got blocked more when it reached the Cape though. 

This also reminds me of "White Juan" which hit eastern Canada after the summer when Juan hit NS, which I think was 2002 so that would be around Jan 2003. I think that storm missed most of NE and came in from the s.s.w. crossing NS and PEI, 30-40 inch snowfalls and extreme drifting resulted. 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Someone in the southern half zone will get 40"+

Keeps edging NW...

The arrows are back !

[Heisy]

1 hour ago, TheSnowman said:

The amount of people I would make angry, gigs lost, money lost, meetings changed.  The rental car back at 1 Airport 6 days early,, Expensive Uber to the other airport, then DOES SW CANCEL the MDW to Hartford flight?  What do I do when I get to Hartford if I do?  

 

It's a MASSIVE Massive undertaking.  That then effects my next trip to Alabama and the LA trip after it.  

I flew from Philly to Colorado for last year's March event. I'm headed up to NE his morning, though I still haven't decided on a location. Its worth it screw it

[ORH_wxman]

Just catching up on euro and 06z runs. Wow to that euro run and wow to that NAM run. Still a little leery about the dumbelling elongated solutions. Looks like 06z reggie did that with a solid bump east. 

[Damage In Tolland]

5 hours ago, CT Rain said:

Big QPF jump on the GFS ensembles from 18z to 00z. Sort of time to toss them since they've been trash. 

Well many tossed them 5 days ago