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Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...


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4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Yeah that low is legit. It's part of the same system that's impacting Florida now. 

download_(14).png

I'm actually referencing the convection that develops around this southern max in convective QPF later in the run. That thing slingshots NE and drags the northern low (the main course) out east with it.

CODNEXLAB-FORECAST-2022012618-NAM-US-pre

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1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

download_(14).png

I'm actually referencing the convection that develops around this southern max in convective QPF later in the run. That thing slingshots NE and drags the northern low (the main course) out east with it.

gotcha...yeah that's certainly different than the above reference. I feel like it's impossible to really know ahead of time the merit in this. I think we have seen instances before where such a scenario did actually occur. 

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2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Doesn’t necessarily mean it’s wrong though.

Which run?   What if it’s a Rainer next run?   So yes that can be said for any solution but unless the whole suite does this I don’t have much confidence in any one NAM output 

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I dont like what I see going on right now. Strong consensus early, and me scoffing at excitement on monday, becoming a believer by last might 00z, seeing media folks go nuts and now seeing complete model schizophrenia. It would mess with a lot of peoples heads including my own to lose this. It isnt common to have strong early consensus go awry inside 72h. This is not 2002.

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By my arithmetic--the p/c here is going with 7-13".  Of note, the POP's have lowered from earlier.

Friday Night
Snow likely, mainly after 2am. Cloudy, with a low around 17. Light north wind increasing to 5 to 10 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Saturday
Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 23. Blustery, with a north wind 14 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 38 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible.
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8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah but weighed against all the other more-skilled guidance strongly suggests that it is.

I’m not saying it’s definitely right, but as the first piece of guidance at 18z, a huge jump east is definitely noteworthy, especially if other models follow (looks like the icon may be doing so)

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