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Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...


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22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The lesser southern vort injection is definitely a problem for further west solutions....agreed. Everything happens later and northeast the lesser amount we see southern stream phased in. The southern vort phasing in earlier starts curling the flow back to the left faster....when that curl is delayed, everything takes a wider right jog before eventually trying to come back.

It's absolutely devastating, especially down here in Philly, that mother nature deciding to hold back this wave just slightly cost us a potential MECS. Absolutely brutal.

Still rooting for you all because I plan to chase somewhere in MA

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16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS are still pretty good...a little east of 06z but there is still a lot of skew to the west side, and there's actually fewer ridiculously east members....narrowing the spread on this run

All guidance systems have the spread concentrated west of the mean low position, with the dominant EOF pattern represented by a closer to the coast storm. 

There is also good agreement across guidance systems that the northern stream shortwave really starts to dominate the sensitivity as it nears Lake Winnipeg. 

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2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

All guidance systems have the spread concentrated west of the mean low position, with the dominant EOF pattern represented by a closer to the coast storm. 

There is also good agreement across guidance systems that the northern stream shortwave really starts to dominate the sensitivity as it nears Lake Winnipeg. 

This going to settle and tick best west a bit tonight, IMO....however, in the mean time, I will book telehealth for any WOR clients who see fit- We can contract for safety...

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3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

All guidance systems have the spread concentrated west of the mean low position, with the dominant EOF pattern represented by a closer to the coast storm. 

There is also good agreement across guidance systems that the northern stream shortwave really starts to dominate the sensitivity as it nears Lake Winnipeg. 

Dong ding ding. West of mean. Huge 

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9 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

All guidance systems have the spread concentrated west of the mean low position, with the dominant EOF pattern represented by a closer to the coast storm. 

There is also good agreement across guidance systems that the northern stream shortwave really starts to dominate the sensitivity as it nears Lake Winnipeg

Makes sense .. because by those points along the trajectory of all, the amount of S/stream infusion is already registered, so that only leaves that. 

But also ... we've seen this many times in the past for waves diving SE through eastern Manitoba like that.  Are there are any shadowing issues above there in Canada.   How does that work up there - we don't have schmucks stationed in Met huts launching balloons.  How is that physically sampled?

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12 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

so tell us what you really think about Wiz's map :lol:

 

9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Obviously it’s a first call…it will have to be adjusted going over the next couple days. 

99.999999% of the time I am extremely conservative with snowfall forecasts but sometimes you gotta chuck high and far

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