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Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...


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3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Plenty good for me…especially at 2 plus days out.  

i completely agree, I don’t get the negativity here. It trended west yesterday and back east a little today. It will likely come back west some, Bernie Rayno talked about it on his stream, called it the windshield wiper effect and said not to get too caught up in the QPF and surface shifts from run to run. The only model that truly looked bad at 500 mb was the Canadian, I’d like to see that come back west at 0z. And even that still looked good for a foot of snow, just not the crazy amounts like the other guidance. 

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The way I see it, while the general trend has been East the main player in this shift has been the S stream, which has repeatedly been buried farther and farther West. The North stream, in most models but especially the Euro, has actually looked more conductive as of late. If we can get a slight east shift in the southern stream, or even just halt the general regression, we still might have a HECS in the cards

 

That being said, I fully expect the 18z suite to make me look like a complete fool 

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46 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Thank you... For western CT/MA, I'm not worried about the location of the main fronto... If the inflow verifies, which is a much more predicable item, there will be great snow totals way west of the fronto projection.  Even in modest setups, my rule is to always skew it west & north of the fronto zone... In this setup with the projected inflow, it may be hard to get it to stop going west!!!

Thank you for this very informative post John. Some folks need to look at this and  comprehend what you are saying. Appreciate the insight. 

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