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Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...


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5 minutes ago, CCHurricane said:

Very much agree. While unlikely, OES and high ratios could get them into the 30" ballpark according to the GFS. 

What a historic storm back in Jan 2005. My fondest memory was that as the storm was beginning, most TV Mets had rain and mixing for those across the Cape...never came! 

It did very briefly in the very beginning. Then straight snow all the way through.

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1 minute ago, bwt3650 said:

Yeah, I’m still going to go with that headline is media hype.  Enjoy the snow, bro.

I wouldn’t call it hype as much as preparing people for the worst. People need flashy words for things to settle in. Nor’easters can be pretty bad as a hurricane. Otherwise you have people traveling and being stuck on highways for 14 hours like what happened in the case of the holiday storm. 

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8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Start at 10" and adjust downward to 4" once the euro 

Maybe it is 2015 ptsd, but I have a bad feeling about this one. There is still time to pull the rug out on all of SNE....but in the other direction, enough time to shift them all back west. So at this point, we track...tomorrow by 12z should have a pretty good answer to these questions

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I'm just not sure what to think. The Euro has been so steady and not budging.  The Nam followed suit ( and I will give it some attention as we're only 3 days put now ).

Now.. On the other end of the spectrum are all the other models including the GFS. My question is this, have we had a circumstance where you would have the euro and it can't be all by itself or have something like the name alongside of it, and be correct where the other models follow and it's footsteps a few days before the actual event? Does anyone have any thoughts or know of any past storms that have had this happen? I just need to keep my hope alive LOL. It's been so long since we've had a very large snow storm and this just seemed like it was going to be the one. Still hoping it is

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Just now, Spanks45 said:

Maybe it is 2015 ptsd, but I have a bad feeling about this one. There is still time to pull the rug out on all of SNE....but in the other direction, enough time to shift them all back west. So at this point, we track...tomorrow by 12z should have a pretty good answer to these questions

No need to sweat it but the nw trends ain't happening. Even if the s stream doesn't drag itself on the floor like a drunken tollandnite, it's not enough to offset some of the other pieces I see that aren't conducive for a WSNE KU. It's possible we can sneak into a weenie band though. 

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

No need to sweat it but the nw trends ain't happening. Even if the s stream doesn't drag itself on the floor like a drunken tollandnite, it's not enough to offset some of the other pieces I see that aren't conducive for a WSNE KU. It's possible we can sneak into a weenie band though. 

What is your bar? You sound like you expect 2-4”.

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I don’t drink whiskey during a storm. I prefer to experience those sober.

I do however occasionally drink it on one of the days leading up to it, and that day could be today. 
 

What is the difference between CMC and RDPS? These are Canadian right? I’m a pivotal guy.

I am pretty nervous… but again… climo. Seeing such a massive wallop cause Litchfield to smoke cirrus and ACK to be on the western edge of the goods seems just bizarre and rare to me. Another idea if we lose her to the east to me makes me think of the system never bombing out.

My intuition, while creeped out, still prompts me to believe this will trend slightly west tonight for 0z. 
 

I do not expect mixing problems anywhere on the cape at all, but I did not go to school for this.

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You, Tblizz, Scooter, and the SEMA gang have nothing to fear. Whether it is 16 or 30, you'll get bombed. 

I'm agreeing with Will....I think some are getting spooked by the east shifts. I get it, but I think it's only Wednesday and plenty of time to see shuffles. This will shove banding way west I think of the low center.

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