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Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

I’m deleting all that crap. Anyone make a political references in the wx thread again, I’ll just can them for 5 days. We are the most lenient subforum on here….but everyone should know better than to

bristolri_wx
bristolri_wx

My apologies if this is off topic… As we hit 380 pages on this thread, and we wait for the 18z Euro, I just want to express my gratitude to everyone who participates in these threads. The communi

George001
George001

Ok I’ve seen enough to make my preliminary forecast. Now that the Navy is on board, I am very confident that this low isn’t going to disappear. The question is not going to be out to sea or benchmark

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FXWX

FXWX

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40 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I agree. When I disputed your point the other day, all I meant was that guidance would over correct in that direction, before ultimately coming back and closing later...however, I fully expected some of these runs to close it off very quickly, and the most likely candidate is always the EURO in my experience.

I absolutely agree that the EURO is too fast and far SW with closing off as it stands now. but I just don't want it to trend too much before correcting. But you are right....that  is probably not off of the table. The CF I feel is...I understand why some don't want it discussed yet, blah , blah, but its my opinion.

Agree...  At this point, I'm locked in mentally for a big regional event with all the normal caveats.  From this point on, want to enjoy the forecasting process; fine tune the snowfall prediction, update my predicted impacts for all of my clients across the Northeast based on my take of the 700 mb intensity & track trends; 850 inflow, etc...  The coupled jet structure at 300 mb is a classic big deepener signal.  Given the lack of big / widespread events this year, I'm want the next 2 or 3 days be a relaxed run-up to a big event so when we get to Friday, I can just step back and watch it unfold.  

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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41 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Enough of the Miller A vs B discussion. It's useless. Just like the ICON.

Edit: Not yelling at Will. It's just the post I found.

I think what started the obsessing was that a post was made a while ago … I think during the lead up to the last event, where a correlation was advanced describing Miller Bs as being better snow producers …

So of course naturally that means comfort seeking armpit sniffing frantically making sure it’s mor B than A …

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FXWX

FXWX

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Fifth  … 1978 isn’t really good total meteorological analog ?

when did that come up and why/how?

It came up either just prior to the Euro run or very shortly thereafter; 40/70 shut it down pretty quick.   Whenever modeling slows a slowing down of an East Coast winter storm, the 78 analog is brought up.  But, as mentioned by others, synoptically is not even close.  78 had a full capture, stall and loop.  It also had a classic banana high at the surfaces stretching from western NY on across southern Canada out into the Atlantic north of the storm.  This has nothing of the sort; high pressure is retreating to its northeast, but no wrapping back of the high on across southern Canada; at least not enough to be noteworthy.  This will be an attempt at a capture, but in the end, it will only be able to slow its forward motion; probably not get it to fully stall.  I would expect this system will always have some forward motion component, even it crawls for a period of time, as it gets tugged a bit north and northwest.

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wxeyeNH

wxeyeNH

Posted
Posted

I just wanted to catch up and went through the last many pages to get some Met or semi pro thoughts.  With so much being posted in this thread that is not really storm related or "weenie" posts maybe a new post could be made for just the serious analysis of what could be a historic storm.  I am not sure how it could be monitored but just a thought?  

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

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5 minutes ago, FXWX said:

It came up either just prior to the Euro run or very shortly thereafter; 40/70 shut it down pretty quick.   Whenever modeling slows a slowing down of an East Coast winter storm, the 78 analog is brought up.  But, as mentioned by others, synoptically is not even close.  78 had a full capture, stall and loop.  It also had a classic banana high at the surfaces stretching from western NY on across southern Canada out into the Atlantic north of the storm.  This has nothing of the sort; high pressure is retreating to its northeast, but no wrapping back of the high on across southern Canada; at least not enough to be noteworthy.  This will be an attempt at a capture, but in the end, it will only be able to slow its forward motion; probably not get it to fully stall.  I would expect this system will always have some forward motion component, even it crawls for a period of time, as it gets tugged a bit north and northwest.

Another excellent post from you...spot on.

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DJln491

DJln491

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5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Something to keep in mind as well as far as haves and have nots are concerned. It’s not like someone is going to get 20” and someone else 3”. It’s probably more like 25 vs 15 or 18” or something 

True.  But it will feel like 3"

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

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5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Something to keep in mind as well as far as haves and have nots are concerned. It’s not like someone is going to get 20” and someone else 3”. It’s probably more like 25 vs 15 or 18” or something 

I think you and I both would be disappointed with 15" :lol:

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