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Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...


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7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

RGEM actually ticked faster with the southern wave. would look like the ECMWF

rgem-all-conus-vort500_z500-3371200.thumb.png.ac5bc75244fc9a41e0452cf2eeece9d3.png

It seems everything else is locked and loaded. It’s just the handling of that southern S/W - very inconsistent model handling with that particular feature. Whether that gets ejected or stays behind is very critical and how this whole thing is going to evolve along ir astride the eastern seaboard. It doesn’t wanna consistently get ejected sometimes yes… sometimes it’s being left behind like in this recent icon run - it all but entirely abandons it which looks weird but who knows… 

 

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ICON made a big jump with handling of southern shortwave

At 12z Friday, was previously over TX, now it's way back to NM/AZ border

Not weighing it much compared to Euro / EPS, but another example of how sensitive this system is to the speed of that energy and downstream timing of phase

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Here's something to throw out at you guys. Looking back on other major blizzards are snowstorms, being 45 days out, doesn't anyone recall the same exact things we're seeing now with the models doing the windshield wiper effect. I almost think it's pretty rare to be 5 days out and have the models exactly where they are from 5 days out until the day of the storm. I'm curious what it was like during Nemo or Juno ( or any other big storm ). I think this may help settle down some people's anxiety if we talked about have storms and what we had seen at the same point in time

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2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Not worried about ICON. LOL

That model literally never shows the right idea. It has been mostly a miss all along...

GFS will be the next big tell. CMC has been wound up so if it moves east that's a very bad sign too.

Depends how much ....CMC has to come east to a degree...

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2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

So there’s someone missing the last couple days . Wolfie is gone. Either Dendy suspended him or his sled went off the trail in Waterville , ME  and we are in send help mode 

Was sledding boys. Been lurking mostly at night. But Thanks for the concern. Appreciate it. 
 

I’d rather have the Euro(and I haven’t been too impressed with it of late either) and It’s ensembles showing something good at the moment like it is, and the Icon be OTS where it is, than Vice versa.  Icon is a joke model no matter which way ya cut it. 

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3 minutes ago, rimetree said:

Isn't ICON basically another RGEM and NAM with regard to sensitivity. Seems like it would be more prone to jumping around at this lead.

Nobody knows what that thing does which is why it’s not even mentioned at the nws or any serious outlets. We clown around with it here but that should be the extent of it. 

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Nobody knows what that thing does which is why it’s not even mentioned at the nws or any serious outlets. We clown around with it here but that should be the extent of it. 

I think it's the only model with a triangular grid.

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