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Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...


Typhoon Tip
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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Look and you shall see the EPS is nutz as can be. Even GFS analogs are go big or go home.

MEDSN72_gfs215F132.png

That's actually kind of interesting down by DC, since models have backed off down there

Actually north of DC is where I'm looking, hard with the little squigglies

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Just getting caught up. I agree with Tip.  The 18z GFS/GEFS were a dramatic continuity shift from their 12z run.  I'd wait to see what the 00z GFS/GEFS do before altering any ideas of the storm.  The 18z EURO/EPS were less drastic and lend more credence right now but that can change in 6hrs.  There is nothing to really hang on this far out other than watching the runs rolls in.  Gotta wait another couple days to see how things look.  Confidence is still high for a storm from what I see right now.  I'd still be leery of a hugger given the southern origins and how we know they play out.  Having a track over or S and E of the BM isn't a bad thing for a lot of the subforum.

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2 minutes ago, George001 said:

looking at the eps indies it looks like there are 2 camps, both are inside the benchmark so we get slammed either way, but the sw one seems to be a sign that the storm could slow down. If that happens someone could easily get over 3 feet.

"easily" and "over 3 feet" should not be used in the same sentence unless you are talking about a centipede.

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10 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Just getting caught up. I agree with Tip.  The 18z GFS/GEFS were a dramatic continuity shift from their 12z run.  I'd wait to see what the 00z GFS/GEFS do before altering any ideas of the storm. 

It's possible the previous 12-18 hours of runs were a bit of a burp and this keeps on being like yesterday's model runs.  Off-shore with E.NE in that cold conveyor belt... instead of the couple runs of highly amped members.  Who knows, should be fun tracking.  If we go back to yesterday's runs and look at 18z ensembles today, it's still a positive trend but not as drastic as 6z/12z today.

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5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It's possible the previous 12-18 hours of runs were a bit of a burp and this keeps on being like yesterday's model runs.  Off-shore with E.NE in that cold conveyor belt... instead of the couple runs of highly amped members.  Who knows, should be fun tracking.  If we go back to tomorrow's runs and look at 18z ensembles today, it's still a positive trend but not as drastic as 6z/12z today.

That's what I am worried about. The 18z GFS looked a lot like the many runs that showed this thing mostly offshore and wimpy for everyone but downeast ME. What if the coastal huggers were the burp runs after all and this thing is destined for the fish?

The run still gave me like 16" tho so not sure why I am bitching so much. It's the trend that is worrisome.

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2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

That's what I am worried about. The 18z GFS looked a lot like the many runs that showed this thing mostly offshore and wimpy for everyone but downcast ME. What if the coastal huggers were the burp runs after all and this things is destined for the fish?

The run still gave me like 16" tho so not sure why I am bitching so much. It's the trend that is worrisome.

1 run is a trend? Dude.  

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