Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[ROOSTA]

Must be the season of (witch) "Noreasters"  
Don't look now but, Pattern locked, reloads and there she blows.
Always thought this winter would deliver in a short timeframe!
Could be a memorable February.   

[78Blizzard]

The Euro has the 0C 925 line barely getting to the outer Cape.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Narcan isn't bad:

 

[78Blizzard]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Anyone else noticed GEFS and. Eps means are nearly identical?

Quite the consensus still about 4.5 days out.

[PhineasC]

I will take 18. 

[EastonSN+]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Why does everyone post Kuchera for maximum weenie effect?

It's Viagra for weather weenies.

[NotSureWeather]

1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said:

The Euro has the 0C 925 line barely getting to the outer Cape.

I’m so worried it ends up raining where I am near EWB.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

I like when weenies set the bar low 5 days out 

 

[SouthCoastMA]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

It's Viagra for weather weenies.

Unfortunately, this snow map erection will only last for for 4 hours, not 4 days. 

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Narcan isn't bad:

 

If only this was friday.

[SouthCoastMA]

1 minute ago, NotSureWeather said:

I’m so worried it ends up raining where I am near EWB.

Are you quaking in your boots?

[CoastalWx]

Just now, dryslot said:

If only this was friday.

LOL, I know. 

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Narcan isn't bad:

 

Juno

[WxFreak11]

9 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

 

Just wish it wasn’t 5 days out. This could be epic if trends continue 

[SouthCoastMA]

If this was 2-3 years ago, I might be getting my hopes up that the other models would soon be trending towards the EURO. But we know how this story will end.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

If only this was friday.

Hell, if only it was Wednesday....once we get inside 72h, the shifts will not be very big.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

14 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It was terrible. Woke up to sunny skies and the wind blowing 6-8" of sand while just to our east, they were getting rammed. 

I can’t remember his username but we had a poster from Connecticut, who I believe was a red tagger,  who had a Hall of Fame meltdown after that storm.

I believe he even made a YouTube video about it. He may have given up weather after that one.

[Heisy]

Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

If this was 2-3 years ago, I might be getting my hopes up that the other models would soon be trending towards the EURO. But we know how this story will end.

This is a lot different than previous events this year. There is actually support across the spectrum this time. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

CMC is nuts for BOS, CNE, and NNE. 

[SouthCoastMA]

Just now, Heisy said:

This is a lot different than previous events this year. There is actually support across the spectrum this time. 

My point being the Euro OP is on the eastern envelope, with UK. I wouldn't be shocked if they cave more towards a GFS/CMC type track. 

[HinghamBoss]

Has there every been any really good regression analysis done on model lead time "locking" in on the big storms?   I recognize one of the intangibles has been improved forecasting technology (I'm eyerolling as I write it too...but the trend vs 20-30 years ago is improved).

 

[dryslot]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Hell, if only it was Wednesday....once we get inside 72h, the shifts will not be very big.

That was where i was going to get serious with this, But model consensus is quite high even now other then some nuances.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Ah, what the hell...let's porn it:

 

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Juno

Stop using that name... we don't do that here

[CoastalWx]

Holy shit at that line. LOL. Have and have nots. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, dryslot said:

That was where i was going to get serious with this, But model consensus is quite high even now other then some nuances.

Today has really started narrowing the clusters on the ensembles and OP runs for 5 day lead time....confidence is definitely higher than normal at D5 for this one. Still have to be cautious obviously, but given the model guidance and also the larger scale pattern that is driving this evolution, we can afford to be a little more confident. It's not like some shortwave coming in slightly stronger or weaker is going to drastically change the solution....because its the larger scale features that are driving this the most.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

Stop using that name... we don't do that here

Yeah, I have no clue about named winter storms.  I haven't turned on TWC since the 1990s.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Not sure if this was posted

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Stop using that name... we don't do that here

[DavisStraight]

12 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

Must be the season of (witch) "Noreasters"  
Don't look now but, Pattern locked, reloads and there she blows.
Always thought this winter would deliver in a short timeframe!
Could be a memorable February.   

Despite all the kvetching we have enough time to pull off a good winter.