Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,188
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Michael Butler
    Newest Member
    Michael Butler
    Joined

Late January and February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
 Share

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

it used to be 'blocking', but we so rarely see it anymore it can't be a buzz word.

Last year was pretty blocky was it not?  It sucked because all it was blocking in was mild air, but it was still blocky.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

An excellent post from the NYC forum echoing points made today:

5 hours ago, USCG RS said:

Wrote this elsewhere as well

We need to stop focusing on the verbatim outcome at 7 days out. 

1) GFS and EPS are East of the Euro Op

2) Pattern Recognition. Just like the writing was on the wall for the first storm which torched the coast and today's storm which became suppressed to SC/NC/VA, the pattern for this wave is more likely to support a coastal over inland. You have an advertised pattern flip, yes, but in early Feb, not late Jan. Not to mention, pattern flips are notoriously delayed, not normally the other way around. I actually spoke to this weeks ago, patterns are rather hard to change once engrained. They flip, yes, however.... seasonal variability tends to help a lot more with that. 

That being said, the pattern would not support a storm torching into Canada, even if it exploded. You have a very cold and dense airmass preceding this storm with reinforcing shots. I know the Euro wants to just move the HP out of the way, however, this is not how physics works. With the storm a couple of weeks back, you had a stale airmass with nothing to reinforce behind it. With this, you have a negative AO and continual reinforcements of cold air. To think that this can just cut into that is just not taking into account physics. WAA is a killer, but only when you have retreating cold air, not when you have entrenched cold air. 

For a storm to form -and maintain- you need several things with one of them being a constant temperature gradient. When you have a locked in cold air mass, that gradient tends to be off the coast due to the land having less of an ability to hold onto heat and water having the ability to do so. This is why you see cold fronts stall off the coast and see LP develop along coastal waters - the cold air and warm air meet over the water rather than over land when you have continual shots of cold air. 

Models are tools, not gods. As such, forecasting is using these models as the tools they are. When a model shows something which does not fit the overall pattern, it needs to be seriously questioned. Can it be right? Sure. Yet, as forecasters, it is your job to find out what is changing to support the solution. If it doe not make sense, take it with a HUGE grain of salt. 

Lastly, it needs to be recognized which models are handling the patterns the best. This pattern has been handled the most correctly by the GFS. It does not mean that the GFS is the gold standard, however, it needs to be taken into account. The Euro has had a hard time handling this pattern, and this too must be taken into account. It should be questioned as to why each model is handling a given pattern better than another. Then, use this knowledge to help you interpret. 

Models are tools. Treat them as such. 

 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Wish people wouldn’t reply to him so I wouldn’t have to see his garbage. Ya know if we all just put him on ignore it would be the same as him getting banned. 

True, but I’m of the mindset that it would be easier to just ban him.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

Ignore campaigns don’t work because we’re all to some extent craving that sweet sweet no-snow depression, and the downer/contrarian posters are the best providers ;)

We have Ji for that and he isn’t a jerk and is actually funny Imo.  Avant Regent or whatever he calls himself tomorrow adds no value in any way. Attacking @Bob Chill was the final straw for me. Don’t even want to acknowledge him anymore. 

  • Like 11
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

58 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Just to illustrate my earlier point…early Feb doesn’t look like a torch despite a -pna on the eps or gefs.  A gradient pattern could work if the idea of the epo ridge extending over the pole with a slightly -AO is correct. 
0C880163-1852-4B28-9710-E40D39C427F1.thumb.png.64ab0081c6cecd6e6142b9cef2898510.png2B428618-5F7F-4405-A3ED-791295FFC925.thumb.png.4bb58ce01f85413b4590d00efb6a7786.png

Pretty similar look to the pattern around the time of the early January storm.

Eta: or at least leading into it iirc.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We have Ji for that and he isn’t a jerk and is actually funny Imo.  Avant Regent or whatever he calls himself tomorrow adds no value in any way. Attacking @Bob Chill was the final straw for me. Don’t even want to acknowledge him anymore. 

Good point, I’ve not been around long enough to be fully familiar with the dynamics here but it’s obvious to me that Chill’s too chill for us to tolerate chilling comments towards them

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, baltosquid said:

Good point, I’ve not been around long enough to be fully familiar with the dynamics here but it’s obvious to me that Chill’s too chill for us to tolerate chilling comments towards them

Criticism of him has a chilling effect on the board.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

May see more snow Sunday evening than Tuesday….WB 0Z 12K NAM

I’d certainly take some Sunday night mood flakes before going back to work, as long as no models spits out totals that get my hopes too high before something more reasonable happens.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

474.. -NAO

nam_namer_057_500_vort_ht.gif 

I've seen it get into the 460s before

I understand what you are talking about since I am a met student but for people who have no knowledge on the subject saying it gets in the 460s means nothing. What does that mean? What are you trying to explain here?

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said:

I understand what you are talking about since I am a met student but for people who have no knowledge on the subject saying it gets in the 460s means nothing. What does that mean? What are you trying to explain here?

Geopotential height min. I found 477dm is the lowest recorded in the US

https://stormtrack.org/community/threads/lowest-500-mb-height-in-history.8225/

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, SnowLover22 said:

I understand what you are talking about since I am a met student but for people who have no knowledge on the subject saying it gets in the 460s means nothing. What does that mean? What are you trying to explain here?

h5 is 474dM.  That’s about as low as it gets.  it’s like the PV has descended from the North Pole on CONUS.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

31 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We have Ji for that and he isn’t a jerk and is actually funny Imo.  Avant Regent or whatever he calls himself tomorrow adds no value in any way. Attacking @Bob Chill was the final straw for me. Don’t even want to acknowledge him anymore. 

Agree...that was a bridge too far right there.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

Geopotential height min. I found 477dm is the lowest recorded in the US

https://stormtrack.org/community/threads/lowest-500-mb-height-in-history.8225/

I believe the Ohio blizzard of 1978 featured a 504dm height closed low at its peak (and a 957mb low that went right through the state).  That was unreal.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Mortals

You amuse me with your analysis, technology and science. I was born of chaos and am the ultimate chaos bringer. Don't attempt to understand me. Sometimes I rule in favor, sometimes not. I'm a moody planet, what can I say. Now resume with your panic and fake hysteria. I look forward to all your efforts.

Sincerely,

Mother Earth :sun:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, BristowWx said:

h5 is 474dM.  That’s about as low as it gets.  it’s like the PV has descended from the North Pole on CONUS.  

I understand that. I think his post could've been clearer for people that don't have the knowledge which was my point.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • WxUSAF unpinned and locked this topic
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...