Late January and February Medium/Long Range Discussion

[wasnow215]

7 hours ago, pazzo83 said:

on the contrary - a year where that happens will no doubt occur in our lifetimes.  we've already had years where winter basically folded up shop in late feb.

You should read some of Dr Judith Curry’s stuff. Her last article deals with possible cooling in the next 5-12 years or so. And for me spring is almost everyday of 60° or better. 

[aldie 22]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Definitely--we can still get cold!!! That's a relief. And interesting stat about that Niño. Niños are funny...is it just me or do ninas have more of the deep cold than niños...that tend to be "just cold enough" when it comes to snow?

You're kind of exhausting 

[LP08]

3 hours ago, stormtracker said:

Something is seriously wrong with all of us.

At least we don’t all drink…oh wait

[SnowenOutThere]

5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Holllld up. Proof I'm not wrong (yet)

I clearly took a guess a 13-15" with a fluke intl 18" Currently sitting at 11--so I could still technically be right UNLESS one of the waves next month produces. But this was NOT a canceling of winter. Sure I may have kinda given up on it and wanted to skip it...but that was only by my standards of a winter producing warning-level snow.

So, with March and all of February left which are on average better combined for snow than January you are touting your forecast as a success? 

[Bob Chill]

12 minutes ago, CAPE said:

You can cross that off the list lol. Been pretty darn cold overall this month, with well above avg snow for eastern areas. Low to mid 20s during the day multiple times and single digit lows.

Also, I am starting to like Ninas here lately. Only winters that have produced avg or above avg snow have been Ninas since 2016- and that winter was a Big torchy Nino save for 10 days and (for many) one big snow event with some fluky blocking. Ninas aren't always awful in this region.

Other than strong ninas, I don't mind cold enso. Not my fave but most weak/mods pull off at least one compressed stretch of cold with chances. Some can be busy. I like having a cold Canada. Seems to be becoming more important as the years go by.

09-10 killed off part of this hobby unfortunately. Recency + the absurd nature of the storms makes everyone want a repeat. Big storm or bust attitude ever since. Nobody seems to really like our typical/avg events anymore. It gets treated like a consolation prize or criticized to death. I enjoy small events. We used to have fun with, take pics of, and celebrate car toppers here. Those days seem like another lifetime ago now.

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

So, with March and all of February left which are on average better combined for snow than January you are touting your forecast as a success? 

Keyword: YET. I very well could be wrong as I could be and I'll admit it if/when I am.

[Weather Will]

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Other than strong ninas, I don't mind cold enso. Not my fave but most weak/mods pull off at least one compressed stretch of cold with chances. Some can be busy. I like having a cold Canada. Seems to be becoming more important as the years go by.

09-10 killed off part of this hobby unfortunately. Recency + the absurd nature of the storms makes everyone want a repeat. Big storm or bust attitude ever since. Nobody seems to really like our typical/avg events anymore. It gets treated like a consolation prize or criticized to death. I enjoy small events. We used to have fun with, take pics of, and celebrate car toppers. Those days seem like another lifetime ago now.

So true.  Lucky if we ever see another 09-10.  Really spoiled everyone.  Still in awe of it.  If we got big storms every year, would not appreciate them anymore….

I really enjoyed January.  About 2 degrees below normal.  Four inches of snow from the last storm and my one inch Friday almost gone after 2 weeks!!!!  Pretty incredible stretch of cold in our warming world.

[SnowenOutThere]

4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Keyword: YET. I very well could be wrong as I could be and I'll admit it if/when I am.

Ok I understand but, don’t bring up an  forecast for an incomplete winter that based solely on snowfall averages for the rest of winter will be incorrect as proof you can get things right. I know you can get things right but that is not proof of anything yet.

[stormtracker]

Man, the snowfall maps for the folks up under that overrunning.  Damn.  That was supposed to be us.  Cleveland with like 32"..but then again, you'd have to live in Cleveland.  Result: Draw. 

[Cobalt]

19 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I clearly took a guess a 13-15" with a fluke intl 18" Currently sitting at 11--so I could still technically be right UNLESS one of the waves next month produces. But this was NOT a canceling of winter. Sure I may have kinda given up on it and wanted to skip it...but that was only by my standards of a winter producing warning-level snow.

11", all from January alone? That may very well be your 2nd or 3rd best January in the past decade. We still have ~60 days left where it can snow, so take a bit of a breather. In a land of sucky winters, a slightly below average winter is king. I think that's how the saying goes?

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Ok I understand but, don’t bring up an  forecast for an incomplete winter that based solely on snowfall averages for the rest of winter will be incorrect as proof you can get things right. I know you can get things right but that is not proof of anything yet.

I think that's what I just said. I brought that up because he said I cancelled winter...and I actually didn't. I just had low expectations...granted I was tempted to start a thread for the next winter, but I relented on the chance I'd be wrong, lol

[snowfan]

6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Man, the snowfall maps for the folks up under that overrunning.  Damn.  That was supposed to be us.  Cleveland with like 32"..but then again, you'd have to live in Cleveland.  Result: Draw. 

You could’ve just typed Ohio and left Cleveland out of it. It’s the entire state.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, Cobalt said:

11", all from January alone? That may very well be your 2nd or 3rd best January in the past decade. We still have ~60 days left where it can snow, so take a bit of a breather. In a land of sucky winters, a slightly below average winter is king. I think that's how the saying goes?

It would be 2nd or 3rd best only if you exclude the January's with MECS or HECS. So by that standard...yeah you're right. Gotta be grateful

[Fozz]

6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

It would be 2nd or 3rd best only if you exclude the January's with MECS or HECS. So by that standard...yeah you're right. Gotta be grateful

January 2014 and January 2016 were by far the best two of the past decade. This month was probably similar to January 2019 in terms of sensible wx in Baltimore.

[Cobalt]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

It would be 2nd or 3rd best only if you exclude the January's with MECS or HECS. So by that standard...yeah you're right. Gotta be grateful

Not sure I follow. The only Januaries I can see topping it are Jan 2016, Jan 2014, and maybe Jan 2011? That's still an above average month, if not top 4 or 3. It feels like we've lost our bread and butter Januaries as of late. They've either produced prolonged unproductive periods or plain old thaws. After our last 60 degree day this one was off to the races. I prepped up my own snow drought thread in anticipation for this year to be yet another entry in the list, but so far it's proven that it isn't a typical -PDO La Nina. If we don't get our February torch.. then that's yet another theme this winter goes against. 

[Maestrobjwa]

31 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

You're kind of exhausting 

Ehh too bad. I can't please some of y'all....and may never be a good enough poster for some. Ya don't like the posts there's the ignore button

[IronTy]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

18Z WB GEFS says I will sleep well for awhile…

Embrace the warmth.  My petunias are experiencing a resurgence.  

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Not sure I follow. The only Januaries I can see topping it are Jan 2016, Jan 2014, and maybe Jan 2011? That's still an above average month, if not top 4 or 3. It feels like we've lost our bread and butter Januaries as of late. They've either produced prolonged unproductive periods or plain old thaws. After our last 60 degree day this one was off to the races. I prepped up my own snow drought thread in anticipation for this year to be yet another entry in the list, but so far it's proven that it isn't a typical -PDO La Nina. If we don't get our February torch.. then that's yet another theme this winter goes against. 

I think I was being too technical...lol Yeah it would still crack the top 5 (assuming I'm not forgetting about another January HECS), It certainly ties with Jan. 2011, I think!

And yes that is the other interesting thing...in Ninas you always expect a February torch. But then again ya always expect a practically non-existent STJ too, but...here we are lol This Nina has been pleasantly strange, while still having some of the usual headaches (i.e. yesterday, lol)

[gymengineer]

20 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Other than strong ninas, I don't mind cold enso. Not my fave but most weak/mods pull off at least one compressed stretch of cold with chances. Some can be busy. I like having a cold Canada. Seems to be becoming more important as the years go by.

09-10 killed off part of this hobby unfortunately. Recency + the absurd nature of the storms makes everyone want a repeat. Big storm or bust attitude ever since. Nobody seems to really like our typical/avg events anymore. It gets treated like a consolation prize or criticized to death. I enjoy small events. We used to have fun with, take pics of, and celebrate car toppers here. Those days seem like another lifetime ago now.

I still enjoy small events too. I took pictures of pavement being covered Friday evening. And I really enjoyed the 2” we got on the scraps of another Boston blizzard on 1/26/2015. Comparing to what’s happening in other locations only limits the ability to actually enjoy falling snow.  
 

And comparing to 09/10, as you said, is bonkers. Just simply on a return period way of thinking, it took about 110 years to have a return on 1898/1899. The fact that DCA was the site for beating 54” vs. in NW DC, and you can add in even more years. (BWI and IAD clearing 70”- even more absurd!) I gladly regard that winter as the winter of a lifetime snow-wise, but even there, other more recent winters have produced extremes in ways 2009/2010 didn’t.

Like, mid-February through early March 2015, with the extreme cold that never happened during 09/10, plus multiple moderate to major snow events and the top March freezing rain event, sits very high on my enjoyment list. 
 

 

 

 

[Rvarookie]

15 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Ehh too bad. I can't please some of y'all....and may never be a good enough poster for some. Ya don't like the posts there's the ignore button

You just too amped up man. 

[Solution Man]

4 hours ago, Weather Will said:

I love your optimism….

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, Solution Man said:

Was catching up…sorry but we are failing good

[WinterFire]

So just to be accurate about data here, for BWI this is the thirrd-snowiest January since 2000 (only behind 2016 and 2000). January 2011 is the only other January to crack 10 inches at BWI, coming in at 10.8”. So 11” if this month cracked 10” (or came close) and you live east of the fall line, it’s been a pretty good January. I guess it feels like it could have been better maybe? But it’s been pretty great by any objective measure ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 

[Solution Man]

5 minutes ago, WinterFire said:

So just to be accurate about data here, for BWI this is the thirrd-snowiest January since 2000 (only behind 2016 and 2000). January 2011 is the only other January to crack 10 inches at BWI, coming in at 10.8”. So 11” if this month cracked 10” (or came close) and you live east of the fall line, it’s been a pretty good January. I guess it feels like it could have been better maybe? But it’s been pretty great by any objective measure ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 

Ok I guess  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[WinterFire]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

You can cross that off the list lol. Been pretty darn cold overall this month, with well above avg snow for eastern areas. Low to mid 20s during the day multiple times and single digit lows.

Also, I am starting to like Ninas here lately. Only winters that have produced avg or above avg snow have been Ninas since 2016- and that winter was a Big torchy Nino save for 10 days and (for many) one big snow event with some fluky blocking. Ninas aren't always awful in this region.

Fwiw, at DCA Feb 2016 was almost exactly average temp-wise with almost a week below freezing (2/10-2/15). Only other comparable cold outbreak since then was late Dec-early Jan 2017-2018. Granted it’s DCA with a different climate than where you are but I don’t know that Feb 2016 was really an all-out torch anywhere in the region?

[Bob Chill]

31 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

I still enjoy small events too. I took pictures of pavement being covered Friday evening. And I really enjoyed the 2” we got on the scraps of another Boston blizzard on 1/26/2015. Comparing to what’s happening in other locations only limits the ability to actually enjoy falling snow.  
 

And comparing to 09/10, as you said, is bonkers. Just simply on a return period way of thinking, it took about 110 years to have a return on 1898/1899. The fact that DCA was the site for beating 54” vs. in NW DC, and you can add in even more years. (BWI and IAD clearing 70”- even more absurd!) I gladly regard that winter as the winter of a lifetime snow-wise, but even there, other more recent winters have produced extremes in ways 2009/2010 didn’t.

Like, mid-February through early March 2015, with the extreme cold that never happened during 09/10, plus multiple moderate to major snow events and the top March freezing rain event, sits very high on my enjoyment list. 
 

 

 

 

The 70s pre-PDI weren't all that great here. Had some really big cold outbreaks but some real stinkers too. Couldn't buy a sledding storm for painfully long stretches (sound familiar lol). Late 70s came and change my life but then the early 80s came... rinse repeat.  I can count far more winter adventures as a kid with 1-2" of snow or maybe sleet ice and slush than big dumps and weeks of snow packs. 2" of snow was at least a 2 hour delay and sleddable. I loved them then and love them now. Being picky here is bad math. ROI drops below reasons to participate. 

[stormtracker]

1 hour ago, snowfan said:

You could’ve just typed Ohio and left Cleveland out of it. It’s the entire state.

Truer words have never been spoken.

[Bob Chill]

13 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Truer words have never been spoken.

I don't know why people think Ohio is such a bad place to live... wait a minute... hmm, scratch that. Was thinking of somewhere else. Carry on. 

[StormchaserChuck!]

Now vs 384hr

[TJ3]

21 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The 70s pre-PDI weren't all that great here. Had some really big cold outbreaks but some real stinkers too. Couldn't buy a sledding storm for painfully long stretches (sound familiar lol). Late 70s came and change my life but then the early 80s came... rinse repeat.  I can count far more winter adventures as a kid with 1-2" of snow or maybe sleet ice and slush than big dumps and weeks of snow packs. 2" of snow was at least a 2 hour delay and sleddable. I loved them then and love them now. Being picky here is bad math. ROI drops below reasons to participate. 

As a child of the 70s in NOVA, such a true statement Bob. I never realized it until recently but I tended to look back on pre PD1 as a much more productive period that reality says it was. If I could point to a marginal sledding event looking back, I was happy. It doesn’t mean the winter was great. Most were not. PD1 is the reason I am here. I sense this is a younger board and most were not around for PD1. Not their fault, but witnessing the early dawn hours of Monday morning PD1 was life changing. It helped with perspective