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Late January and February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Entertaining GFS HH. I doubt this front will move through quick enough to get a snow this week, but I think we have plenty more time for winter fun.

The GFS has never really been "big" on that for late this upcoming week.  It got close to something a few times, but that's about it.  And really nothing like what a couple of recent runs of the Euro or UKMet showed.  Beyond this Friday, yeah, we'll see...

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3 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Hello and welcome to the mid-Atlantic Forum.  Where the snow weenies are nuts and the storms are getting nervous!  We're all crazy here, but since you're joining in, then what does that say?...well, I'll just leave it at that LOL! :lol:  Seriously though, it's a good group in here, and hope you have fun!

I recognize a lot of names here from the past so not everyone is new. thanks and happy tracking!! 

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1 hour ago, Anyweather said:

I would dial the weather phone in Poughkeepsie NY multiple times per day in the winter waiting for the forecast to update. Still remember the number 452-1919 50 plus years later. 

LOL, I did the same thing, and then there was the faux wood radio shack cube, always trying to get into contorted positions to pull in the distant stations...and waiting for those sacred words..."an area of low pressure will move northeast from the gulf, reforming over Cape Hatteras," we knew what that meant!  Cheers

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2 hours ago, stormtracker said:

We have the dumbest of hobbies.  I don't know about anybody else, but sometimes I wish I was a normie.  My mom knew I was weird when I was 4.  It would be thundering and lightening outside, everybody going away from the windows and I'd sit in a chair at the window.  High school, calling my mom to hold the phone up to the TV at 11:20 tuned to the weather channel when the 5 day business planner came on.  I'm honestly surprised my mother just didn't throw the whole child away and start over.

When I was younger (1970s) I used to be fascinated by turning on an AM radio, tuning to a blank station and listening to static (sferics).  It was cool to see heat lightning in the distance and hearing the crash through the speaker at the same time.  It lead me down a weird road of hobbies including weather, chemistry, and ham radio to name a few.

I didn't have a lot of friends when younger as they thought I was "out there" staring at a speaker listening to static!  At least it wasn't the TV letting lost spirits into the room! :D

The memories of my folks listening to Orioles radio on WCBM and hearing the static from distant storms are still quite pronounced.  Most (now) don't even own an AM radio.  I have a boombox in the attic.  But the king of AM is 160 meters which I still have HF transceivers to listen on if desired.  The antenna farm was all but destroyed in a direct lightning hit in 2014.  But if we have a SHTF situation I can get a longwire up pretty quick.  I have a discone and a few 10 meter omnis too.  Probably enough parts to put together another Moonraker 4 (11 meter - CB beam) too.

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1 hour ago, Anyweather said:

I would dial the weather phone in Poughkeepsie NY multiple times per day in the winter waiting for the forecast to update. Still remember the number 452-1919 50 plus years later. 

Same here as a teen in Washington D.C. back in the 1960s. The number was WE-6-1212. (Called it so many times I can never forget it, lol.)

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7 minutes ago, Stormfly said:



The memories of my folks listening to Orioles radio on WCBM and hearing the static from distant storms are still quite pronounced.  Most (now) don't even own an AM radio.  I have a boombox in the attic.  But the king of AM is 160 meters which I still have HF transceivers to listen on if desired.  The antenna farm was all but destroyed in a direct lightning hit in 2014.  But if we have a SHTF situation I can get a longwire up pretty quick.  I have a discone and a few 10 meter omnis too.  Probably enough parts to put together another Moonraker 4 (11 meter - CB beam) too.

When I got to this paragraph, my brain saw this:

shutterstock_530678500.jpg

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18 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

That’s not an attack. It’s fact. We have the winter thread to prove it. If you don’t like me pointing it out, think about that next time before you post it.

So...you're not allowed to be wrong about something--got it. (Albeit technically I ain't wrong about this winter just yet....but if I go above climo I concede)

Btw I NEVER cancelled winter forever. I had concerns about future winters but I never said it could never snow.

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17 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I did not cancel winter forever. I was worried (largely because of other posts lime psu's) about us not being able to get legit cold, but I never said you couldn't.

You can cross that off the list lol. Been pretty darn cold overall this month, with well above avg snow for eastern areas. Low to mid 20s during the day multiple times and single digit lows.

Also, I am starting to like Ninas here lately. Only winters that have produced avg or above avg snow have been Ninas since 2016- and that winter was a Big torchy Nino save for 10 days and (for many) one big snow event with some fluky blocking. Ninas aren't always awful in this region.

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Holllld up. @WinterWxLuvr Proof I'm not wrong (yet) 

On 11/9/2021 at 4:30 PM, Maestrobjwa said:

Feels like others are also settling around that number(s) for the area as well. In my inexperienced opinion I'd guess the same (since we did get about 13" last year...I was guessing 13-15" myself (we fluked into 18" in 2017-18, lol). Hey I'd take it in a nina...that and a few blasts of some legit cold.

I clearly took a guess a 13-15" with a fluke intl 18" Currently sitting at 11--so I could still technically be right UNLESS one of the waves next month produces. But this was NOT a canceling of winter. Sure I may have kinda given up on it and wanted to skip it...but that was only by my standards of a winter producing warning-level snow.

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3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

You can cross that off the list lol. Been pretty darn cold overall this month, with well above avg snow for eastern areas. Low to mid 20s during the day multiple times and single digit lows.

Also, I am starting to like Ninas here lately. Only winters that have produced avg or above age snow have been Ninas since 2016- and that winter was a Big torchy Nino save for 10 days and (for many) one big snow event with some fluky blocking. Ninas aren't always awful in this region.

Definitely--we can still get cold!!! That's a relief. And interesting stat about that Niño. Niños are funny...is it just me or do ninas have more of the deep cold than niños...that tend to be "just cold enough" when it comes to snow?

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