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Late January and February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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30 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

18z Euro looks to back up its 12z frozen solution for Thursday night ...( extraping:yikes:)  If anything h5 hints at a bit  more progressive ns and weaker southern shortwave(s)

Man. You a soldier. No way I’d have the balls to extrapolate. I can barely keep it together for each panel. Hope you’re right. 

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1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

Going to see my man tonight.  Well he's been dead for almost 200 years, so if I actually see him, I'm running the f*ck out of the Kennedy Center.   I'll be back for the 0z fun and games if anybody cares.  Lucky it ain't my other dude's work, Mahler...I wouldn't be back until 6z. (Music nerd joke, sorry)

Maybe you’ll hear Für Weenies

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1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:


EURO/CMC won the last storm in the medium to short range — GFS was way east for a bit.

Lets be blunt. The GFS was terrible. Once it finally caught on and incrementally corrected west, it went too far at the end, as other guidance was incrementally contracting and pushing the higher snowfall totals more towards the coast.

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30 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Wow is the same storm that was supposed to be a cutter or is this different energy?

There's a big/deep arctic air intrusion coming into the conus. That's pretty much a lock. It will modify as it heads here but it's still a pretty big dense/cold airmass. The battleground between that and warm moist air in the deep south is kinda slow moving and just sagging down pushing on everything. Models are speeding it up. Especially the euro. Until that's resolved, no way to know how many (if any) shortwaves will run the gauntlet. Waiting game there. However, we've gotten plenty of ok events like this.

The key is the orientation of the boundary. The more W-E it is, the higher the probability of multiple shortwaves running along it.  The first chance starts with getting that boundary south of your house. 

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3 hours ago, stormtracker said:

Going to see my man tonight.  Well he's been dead for almost 200 years, so if I actually see him, I'm running the f*ck out of the Kennedy Center.   I'll be back for the 0z fun and games if anybody cares.  Lucky it ain't my other dude's work, Mahler...I wouldn't be back until 6z. (Music nerd joke, sorry)

don't miss the light display they have outside in The Reach area of the Kennedy Center (the new add-on)!

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