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Late January and February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Listen I'm learnin', alright? Ya kinda called me out on that last year and I heard ya. I'm slowly embracing the chaos of all this It's just my nature to wanna know what gives the best CHANCE of something happening, what helps and what can get in the way. 

So if we can't expect anything...what good are LR discussions, then? Good patterns can mean nothing, bad patterns can mean nothing...so what's the point?

Because what else would we do…and we need a reason to drink more than we should.  

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34 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Ninos often feature the pineapple connection or a stream of moisture and/or shortwaves from HI to Socal. When storms enter the country in socal it's WAAAAY different than when they enter in Seattle. That's the primary reason we like ninos. The further south a storm enters the conus, the better chance of it staying south of us. Plenty of ninos never get that though and it can happen in any enso state. 

When i read your posts and questions it always looks like a constant search for 1+2=3 in weather. You gotta move past that quick here. It has never and will never work that way. We've wasted ungodly good setups and gotten hit flush in some of the dumbest. Never ever expect anything to do anything in particular no matter what 

Eta: when I see a nice blocked pattern with a 50/50 or whatever, all it tells me that there is a real CHANCE at a big storm. Not that there will be a storm. And even if there is, a lot still has to break right to take advantage of the longwave setup. When models spit out a big blocked storm a week out, it makes sense to me. That's it. When models spit out an unblocked coastal ripper big hit a week out, it will never make enough sense to me to expect anything. 

I assume the last time we saw a blocked pattern a week out was Jan ‘16, is that correct? 

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17 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

The 6z EPS paints ~1" over most of the area from 18z Thurs - 06z Fri. At 0z, it had just a tenth or so. #trending

Add an inch for each run, just like how you multiply your 25 time by 4 to get your 100 time in swim and we are looking at about 2 feet of snow. What can go wrong

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4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Glad I missed the GFS.  WIll try to do Euro pbp.  Was on the phone with my mom for like an hour, with the first 25 minutes consisting of "why you don't call me?" as I am on the phone with her because.....I called her.

Happens every week.

Ukie was good and 06z control has storm, late week timeframe

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53 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

I assume the last time we saw a blocked pattern a week out was Jan ‘16, is that correct? 

We've wasted a few great ones since but that was the last classic hit. Last year had some great blocking. Upper air looked great plenty but when you opened up the 850 temp panels... ooof.... what a disaster. Lol

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1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Listen I'm learnin', alright? Ya kinda called me out on that last year and I heard ya...just taking a bit and I'm learning with some experience I'm slowly embracing the chaos of all this It's just my nature to wanna know what gives the best CHANCE of something happening, what helps and what can get in the way...what might go right, what may go wrong...why something is happening. I'm a big WHY person.

So if we can't expect anything...what good are LR discussions, then? Good patterns can mean nothing, bad patterns can mean nothing...so what's the point?

I'm a really good room reader. I can literally feel your anguish as you prod thru iterations of the same general question in hopes of someone saying it's definitely going to dump in a week and not to worry 

We discuss generalities here really well. Complete piece by piece longwave analysis any time something looks like more than a shutout. You constantly try to drill one level deeper into specifics at times when generalities are still pretty muddy. Real frustration and unhappiness comes thru strong on your posts. Can be hard to read sometimes honestly. I'm saying this because I feel bad for you at times. Not because I'm a big meanie who wants to call everyone out 

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1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So if we can't expect anything...what good are LR discussions, then? Good patterns can mean nothing, bad patterns can mean nothing...so what's the point?

Because good results are much more probable in good patterns and bad results are much more probable in bad patterns.

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Just now, cbmclean said:

Because good results are much more probable in good patterns and bad results are much more probable in bad patterns.

To clarify, it might be better to say "good results are much less improbable in good patterns".  Good results are still unlikely at our latitudes.  Obviously in my neck of the woods that is even more true.

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