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Late January and February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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At this point I wonder if I’d prefer to see things more inland lol, we keep leaving snow on the table with things trending to our SE with the exception of that Harrisburg hauler. Feels like the playbook this year has been “op runs sets a storm up off shore in med-long range, it trends in, then trends out”

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1 hour ago, baltosquid said:

At this point I wonder if I’d prefer to see things more inland lol, we keep leaving snow on the table with things trending to our SE with the exception of that Harrisburg hauler. Feels like the playbook this year has been “op runs sets a storm up off shore in med-long range, it trends in, then trends out”

Progressive northern stream is a staple here and unfortunately it has a huge bag of tricks to find ways to skip us. Geography problems are unfixable. Feb should provide some better battlegrounds from what I'm seeing. TPV intrusions at the same time more springlike shortwaves start making some moves along the southern tier. If we keep getting tall/steep uphill approaches it's prob going to be a continual problem.  Always is. Get a couple broad carves and set up and move W-E oriented battleground and we can talk bigger or "easier" events. Pretty clear that a repeating current pattern isn't going to work well this year. Things aren't aligned properly.

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5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Ya talking about in regards to the nina state or just in general?

In general. We get fast/progressive northern stream flow more than any other in winter. Enso doesn't matter other than cold enso favoring MORE of what we always get a lot of. Lol. It's why I don't get interested much with years like this except inside of 3 days. No storm is real outside of that. Especially if it's touchy (almost always is). I was certain all week my yard was weak this weekend. I no longer expect different results with these deals. I've been doing this too long to allow myself to get pulled into anything that isn't worth the time investment

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

In general. We get fast/progressive northern stream flow more than any other in winter. Enso doesn't matter other than cold enso favoring MORE of what we always get a lot of. Lol. It's why I don't get interested much with years like this except inside of 3 days. No storm is real outside of that. Especially if it's touchy (almost always is). I was certain all week my yard was weak this weekend. I no longer expect different results with these deals. I've been doing this too long to allow myself to get pulled into anything that isn't worth the time investment

Dang I didn't know we had that problem in niños too...why is it then that they tend to work a bit better? And what effect does blocking have on muting our progressive tendencies? 

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7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Ya talking about in regards to the nina state or just in general?

There are a few nice setups in progressive NS flow without blocking so I'm not saying it's a doom thing at all. You're hearing me harp on the broad trough. That's the most visible way to get into a warning storm pattern. Broad troughs and flow underneath elongates everything. Moisture streams way out in front of even weak shortwaves in the south. Get in the way of that and a 1003mb low can still drop a foot here.

 

Long duration overunners happen here. PD2 part 1 was just that. Not apples to apples at all but sometimes the hose points at us and we snow for a day or 2. Not hot and heavy like a compact ball of energy. Just steady light/mod snow that keeps piling up. Sure would like to see a pattern set up in early Feb that can deliver that. If ens/ops lose the broad trough idea completely and go back to fast moving steep hills, I'll go quiet pretty quick. 

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2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Dang I didn't know we had that problem in niños too...why is it then that they tend to work a bit better? And what effect does blocking have on muting our progressive tendencies? 

Blocking changes the flow. Especially where it counts. When something is blocking the flow, we get confluence overhead or height lines running W-E. We live for that. Unblocked flow is just a steep hill most times. Nothing in the way so you better be in ground zero or you get zero. Make sense?

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15 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Dang I didn't know we had that problem in niños too...why is it then that they tend to work a bit better? And what effect does blocking have on muting our progressive tendencies? 

Ninos often feature the pineapple connection or a stream of moisture and/or shortwaves from HI to Socal. When storms enter the country in socal it's WAAAAY different than when they enter in Seattle. That's the primary reason we like ninos. The further south a storm enters the conus, the better chance of it staying south of us. Plenty of ninos never get that though and it can happen in any enso state. 

When i read your posts and questions it always looks like a constant search for 1+2=3 in weather. You gotta move past that quick here. It has never and will never work that way. We've wasted ungodly good setups and gotten hit flush in some of the dumbest. Never ever expect anything to do anything in particular no matter what 

Eta: when I see a nice blocked pattern with a 50/50 or whatever, all it tells me that there is a real CHANCE at a big storm. Not that there will be a storm. And even if there is, a lot still has to break right to take advantage of the longwave setup. When models spit out a big blocked storm a week out, it makes sense to me. That's it. When models spit out an unblocked coastal ripper big hit a week out, it will never make enough sense to me to expect anything. 

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Ninos often feature the pineapple connection or a stream of moisture and/or shortwaves from HI to Socal. When storms enter the country in socal it's WAAAAY different than when they enter in Seattle. That's the primary reason we like ninos. The further south a storm enters the conus, the better chance of it staying south of us. Plenty of ninos never get that though and it can happen in any enso state. 

When i read your posts and questions it always looks like a constant search for 1+2=3 in weather. You gotta move past that quick here. It has never and will never work that way. We've wasted ungodly good setups and gotten hit flush in some of the dumbest. Never ever expect anything to do anything in particular no matter what 

Chill, thanks for the wisdom

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35 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Ninos often feature the pineapple connection or a stream of moisture and/or shortwaves from HI to Socal. When storms enter the country in socal it's WAAAAY different than when they enter in Seattle. That's the primary reason we like ninos. The further south a storm enters the conus, the better chance of it staying south of us. Plenty of ninos never get that though and it can happen in any enso state. 

When i read your posts and questions it always looks like a constant search for 1+2=3 in weather. You gotta move past that quick here. It has never and will never work that way. We've wasted ungodly good setups and gotten hit flush in some of the dumbest. Never ever expect anything to do anything in particular no matter what 

Eta: when I see a nice blocked pattern with a 50/50 or whatever, all it tells me that there is a real CHANCE at a big storm. Not that there will be a storm. And even if there is, a lot still has to break right to take advantage of the longwave setup. When models spit out a big blocked storm a week out, it makes sense to me. That's it. When models spit out an unblocked coastal ripper big hit a week out, it will never make enough sense to me to expect anything. 

Listen I'm learnin', alright? Ya kinda called me out on that last year and I heard ya...just taking a bit and I'm learning with some experience I'm slowly embracing the chaos of all this It's just my nature to wanna know what gives the best CHANCE of something happening, what helps and what can get in the way...what might go right, what may go wrong...why something is happening. I'm a big WHY person.

So if we can't expect anything...what good are LR discussions, then? Good patterns can mean nothing, bad patterns can mean nothing...so what's the point?

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