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Late January and February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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The long range looks perfectly serviceable to me.  -EPO.  PNA goes negative but not nearly to the extent of December then shifts east some.  Trough stays east of Hawaii and the trough in the western north PAC is encroaching on the western Aleutians which should continue to pump the EPO ridge.  This is not an awful look.  Unfortunately no help on the atlantic side but with a lot of cold around we could luck into some waves.  

This isnt a warm look...

NotTorch.thumb.png.945dd4ea71fe840421f568e3ba2079e6.png

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22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The long range looks perfectly serviceable to me.  -EPO.  PNA goes negative but not nearly to the extent of December then shifts east some.  Trough stays east of Hawaii and the trough in the western north PAC is encroaching on the western Aleutians which should continue to pump the EPO ridge.  This is not an awful look.  Unfortunately no help on the atlantic side but with a lot of cold around we could luck into some waves.  

This isnt a warm look...

 

 

 

Source region should be frigid, while we may experience another PV displacement or elongation into Central Canada. Crazy look at hour 384.

 

 

  gfs_nh-epvstream_0800K_20220125_f384.png.342056c1654e50640c1fa4d40b0d1663.png

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22 hours ago, pazzo83 said:

can you imagine these guys during a Dec 26 2010 or March 2001?  LOL.

Back then people complained and no one complained about the complaining. Was nice.

 

glad to see  LR looks “serviceable” saw some FB posts saying we where perhaps headed back to the Dec pattern. 
 

 

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28 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Gefs still advertising overrunning events coming at us from the southwest in the long range.

Gefs would imply several chances coming up after a brief warm up for a few days next week.

These events, as you know, are much more realistic in terms of happening for our region , as well as easier to forecast versus what is on the table ( or off the table ) for this Friday and Saturday.  

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11 minutes ago, frd said:

These events, as you know, are much more realistic in terms of happening for our region , as well as easier to forecast versus what is on the table ( or off the table ) for this Friday and Saturday.  

Definitely.  It's a little disappointing models seem to be taking away the front end stuff that us westerners needed to see anything this Friday/ Saturday. 

You seem to be in a pretty good spot if I have your location right. 

 

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52 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Definitely.  It's a little disappointing models seem to be taking away the front end stuff that us westerners needed to see anything this Friday/ Saturday. 

You seem to be in a pretty good spot if I have your location right. 

 

Yes, in Middletown, DE, so hopefully I have better odds, we will see.

Hopefully we all score across the board with an over running event in early February. 

Do you have a favored time frame for early Feb? Last I checked was near  Feb 6 th or 7 th. But, that was days ago.  

 

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34 minutes ago, frd said:

Yes, in Middletown, DE, so hopefully I have better odds, we will see.

Hopefully we all score across the board with an over running event in early February. 

Do you have a favored time frame for early Feb? Last I checked was near  Feb 6 th or 7 th. But, that was days ago.  

 

Ji posted a pretty GFS picture for February 7th in the weekend thread.

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4 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Can we make the next threat a super short tracker?

This long tracking combined with the sheer number of immature posters around here is just a recipe for disaster if we don't end up with the highest-end scenario.

Could we just make a stable setup that is not a long shot to get some good snow totals. Like an overunning event

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23 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Could we just make a stable setup that is not a long shot to get some good snow totals. Like an overunning event

That would be nice. I'm done with all these ns vorts flying around screwing up bigger snows. Yeah overrunning may have a gradient by nature...but at least it's easier to track

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3 hours ago, frd said:

Yes, in Middletown, DE, so hopefully I have better odds, we will see.

Hopefully we all score across the board with an over running event in early February. 

Do you have a favored time frame for early Feb? Last I checked was near  Feb 6 th or 7 th. But, that was days ago.  

 

Looks like a brief warm up next week then a cool down after that. 6th and 7th keeps popping up on some of the globals.

I thinking we may have more than 1 opportunity by the way the ensembles look. (Hopefully)

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32 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Looks like a brief warm up next week then a cool down after that. 6th and 7th keeps popping up on some of the globals.

I thinking we may have more than 1 opportunity by the way the ensembles look. (Hopefully)

This another weekend where we gotta look past one sputtering storm to track another a week away? Seems go be the theme this month...lol

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13 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

This another weekend where we gotta look past one sputtering storm to track another a week away? Seems go be the theme this month...lol

If we can be on the right side of a parade of overrunning events it's alot less nerve racking than hoping for the perfect timing and phase of multiple vorts.

You won't get a big dog in this type of pattern we can certainly score light to moderate events.

The biggest risk is being on the wrong side of the boundary and seeing PA North getting white while we're wet south of 40n.

 

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3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

This thread is going to be pretty dead for a while if the GFS is right. Maybe another chance the second week of February?

We probably just need to accept that we're likely to see a warmup ahead of a cutter in early February. After that, all we know is that the arguments about sun angle and and ground temps and drip, drip, drip will begin. And the folks out west and up north and at elevation will begin to tell us eastern lowlanders how we should expect and accept mixed events come the flip to March. And I'll start a gardening and lawn thread in preparation for spring.

:lol:

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7 minutes ago, CAPE said:

After a warmish first few days of Feb and maybe a mild storm, we get this look. Cold, and potential is there for something, but it looks to be of the same variety we are dealing with now lol. Could be fun. B)

1644192000-qWTHApHEkqQ.png

I can't do this again yo, lolol Now if it looks cleaner with ns vorrs not screaming around as much? Maybe...

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58 minutes ago, CAPE said:

After a warmish first few days of Feb and maybe a mild storm, we get this look. Cold, and potential is there for something, but it looks to be of the same variety we are dealing with now lol. Could be fun. B)

1644192000-qWTHApHEkqQ.png

Would think that would work. At least any decent wave would probably raise heights enough before is zoomed on toward Europe

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3 hours ago, mattie g said:

We probably just need to accept that we're likely to see a warmup ahead of a cutter in early February. After that, all we know is that the arguments about sun angle and and ground temps and drip, drip, drip will begin. And the folks out west and up north and at elevation will begin to tell us eastern lowlanders how we should expect and accept mixed events come the flip to March. And I'll start a gardening and lawn thread in preparation for spring.

:lol:

I mean we get about 3 months of winter.  We lost 1 in December.  Jan was OK. Barring a mid level warning event in Feb winter is on track for a grade of C+.  And that’s generous.    

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