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Late January and February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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1 hour ago, CAPE said:

The folks around Winchester who were ready to bail are now saying 'this baby is right where we want it'.

I was never ready to bail. I have said, and will definitely pull the post back up if it happens lol, that we would know today. All I’ve said was that what was being advertised would not work here. 
 

I don’t even know if it’s possible, but somehow this thing still has to dig/phase about 200 miles west of where it is. I was encouraged by the gefs at 0z with some inland lows. Would love to have seen how it did it.

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7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I was never ready to bail. I have said, and will definitely pull the post back up if it happens lol, that we would know today. All I’ve said was that what was being advertised would not work here. 
 

I don’t even know if it’s possible, but somehow this thing still has to dig/phase about 200 miles west of where it is. I was encouraged by the gefs at 0z with some inland lows. Would love to have seen how it did it.

Yeah, good trends but I’m keeping expectations in check for now.  We all know the pitfalls of this kinda setup for everyone SW of Philly. Not saying we can’t get a storm of course.  

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11 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Yeah, good trends but I’m keeping expectations in check for now.  We all know the pitfalls of this kinda setup for everyone SW of Philly. Not saying we can’t get a storm of course.  

Right, keep expectations in check but take solace in the fact that this signal has been around about a week or so.

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52 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I was never ready to bail. I have said, and will definitely pull the post back up if it happens lol, that we would know today. All I’ve said was that what was being advertised would not work here. 
 

I don’t even know if it’s possible, but somehow this thing still has to dig/phase about 200 miles west of where it is. I was encouraged by the gefs at 0z with some inland lows. Would love to have seen how it did it.

It was just a general post and not directed at you lol. Just having a little fun with those that seem to think operational models have it figured out 6 days out. Like I said yesterday, we get NS energy phasing in sooner this could end up a rain/snow deal for the coast and better inland. Still plenty of time. The ultimate outcome is unknown.

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3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

we get NS energy phasing in sooner

This is the key. I think it’s import to get them closer longitudinally also. I had just taken @yoda post to illustrate that west is important for both pieces, not just the southern piece. Again, just my uninformed opinion.

Top is the 6z

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8E62D8FA-C7EC-4127-8A5B-3FC16C8A8EB5.thumb.jpeg.0fd9ee65156c53a11af856ca3710e9af.jpeg

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7 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It was just a general post and not directed at you lol. Just having a little fun with those that seem to think operational models have it figured out 6 days out. Like I said yesterday, we get NS energy phasing in sooner this could end up a rain/snow deal for the coast and better inland. Still plenty of time. The ultimate outcome is unknown.

Lol yeah I knew you weren’t directing that at me. I don’t trust an op solution at one day much less 6

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It was just a general post and not directed at you lol. Just having a little fun with those that seem to think operational models have it figured out 6 days out. Like I said yesterday, we get NS energy phasing in sooner this could end up a rain/snow deal for the coast and better inland. Still plenty of time. The ultimate outcome is unknown.
Without 50 50 low and-nao....ive seen alot of east stuff trend west in our location...usually to screw us lol
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