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Late January and February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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4 minutes ago, Interstate said:

How would you even get rain with that 500 pass?

same problem as last weekend...system cuts off and amplifies too far south and without blocking we get a blast of SE flow ahead of it and nothing to stop it from cutting due north.  But way too early to worry about that yet.  

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Something interesting to note...if we do get a bomb in that time period, the wave breaking from it flips the NAO negative and completely changes the pattern progression behind it.  Suddenly we would be tracking threats in early February also as a result.  So even if we don't necessarily "win" with the big snowfall totals from this storm its a good thing anyways.  Bombs away! 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Something interesting to note...if we do get a bomb in that time period, the wave breaking from it flips the NAO negative and completely changes the pattern progression behind it.  Suddenly we would be tracking threats in early February also as a result.  So even if we don't necessarily "win" with the big snowfall totals from this storm its a good thing anyways.  Bombs away! 

Funny u mention that. I was glancing at some of the ens stuff for very early Feb and also noticed the more of a signal for a big low in the East and more of a dampening out of the big flip.....or maybe we can call it kicking the can. Agreed tho, let it bomb out.

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Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Funny u mention that. I was glancing at some of the ens stuff for very early Feb and also noticed the more of a signal for a big low in the East and more of a dampening out of the big flip.....or maybe we can call it kicking the can. Agreed tho, let it bomb out.

I have no idea how permanent it is...a wave breaking induced NAO ridge that is going against the base state is likely not going to last too long...but it would create a window behind it for a few days to a week at least, instead of going right into a SE ridge.  And there are numerous STJ waves coming in that period with the Pacific shuffling...that is a setup that could produce something...pacific waves attacking cold in the northeast following a temporary block.  

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Would be nice if we could actually get a real HP in a more classic spot with one of these waves. Don't need a big block (would be nice lol) but strong closed lows to our south are warm air vacuums. Euro is a nice storm but awful setup for a cold feed on top. Just a simple banana or even pickle shaped 1030 sliding across our noggins as precip approaches would work.

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25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

same problem as last weekend...system cuts off and amplifies too far south and without blocking we get a blast of SE flow ahead of it and nothing to stop it from cutting due north.  But way too early to worry about that yet.  

Sounds like you're worrying about that yet lol

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29 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

same problem as last weekend...system cuts off and amplifies too far south and without blocking we get a blast of SE flow ahead of it and nothing to stop it from cutting due north.  But way too early to worry about that yet.  

Only time I like seeing an amped up wave to our SW is when we have a good look up top. More problematic here than further inland though.

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12 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Sounds like you're worrying about that yet lol

I think he was just answering the question. If I were at his location and knowing he likes the big dogs and gets bored with the 2-4 deals the rest of us live for, I would be excited by today's op runs.

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7 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

The nice thing is the models are picking up on a HP over the top. Give us the GFS HP with the Euro track and its bombs away. But of course mixing would always be an issue with a monster like that anyways. 

I’ll take 6-12+ with some sleet at the height as the storm passes underneath before we get deathbanded. In a hot damn heartbeat. 

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6 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Welp… one thing is for sure…. Well have plenty of tracking to do over the next 2-3 weeks. I have little doubt we see a 6”+ type storm between now and feb 7th

tread carefully lol.  it does look promising, though.  we're generally very good at precip here...as long as there's cold, it'll snow at some point.

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