cyclone77 Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 ^ I'll take the outlier GEM please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 22, 2022 Author Share Posted January 22, 2022 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: 35% chance that ORD finds a way to not be at 10" after this. If so, it won't be due to who is measuring. (Not me with either event unfortunately) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Got a coat of icing with the first round and a DAB. Tonight’s might be the most promising of the bunch. Also friendly reminder that there is a pivotalwx view that contains the whole sub forum so maps that have the lower Mississippi valley aren’t necessary 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 5 hours ago, OrdIowPitMsp said: Ended up with 0.8” from wave 1. 1.0" here. More light snow came through during the night. Looks like 1-3" coming Sun night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 18z HRRR wave #1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Bullish. Someone is going to pull 6” from this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 15 minutes ago, mimillman said: Bullish. Someone is going to pull 6” from this I will bear the burden. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Too bad lake temps have plummeted. Otherwise, likely would've been entertaining the possibility of a foot somewhere in Lake/Porter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 surprised I didn't see a posting that LOT posted a WWA earlier this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 18z HRRR through 00z Mon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Got 0.2" today, I guess from remnants of clipper 1 which I didn't expect. Bring on the next 2! Looks like toledos snow hole ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 53 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: 18z HRRR wave #1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Just to elaborate a bit on the lake effect potential... here's an unmodified NAM fcst sounding over southern Lake Michigan at 15z Sun. Inversion heights are around 800 mb... not great but could be worse. Because lake temps have cooled significantly lately, delta T is "only" in the mid to perhaps upper teens. Omega is sort of split with some in the dgz and some not, but should still result in pretty good flake size. Should get a nice lake response that is perhaps capable of inch per hour rates or maybe slightly higher at peak. The question is how progressive it will be and whether it can hang up somewhere for more than a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 23 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Our turn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 12 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Just to elaborate a bit on the lake effect potential... here's an unmodified NAM fcst sounding over southern Lake Michigan at 15z Sun. Inversion heights are around 800 mb... not great but could be worse. Because lake temps have cooled significantly lately, delta T is "only" in the mid to perhaps upper teens. Omega is sort of split with some in the dgz and some not, but should still result in pretty good flake size. Should get a nice lake response that is perhaps capable of inch per hour rates or maybe slightly higher at peak. The question is how progressive it will be and whether it can hang up somewhere for more than a few hours. Gary ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Plumes up to 4.5 at ORD for both clippers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 8 minutes ago, mimillman said: Gary ftw LOT has an advisory for Lake/Porter but still kept the Winter Storm Watch, so appears that confidence in warning amounts is not sufficient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 22, 2022 Author Share Posted January 22, 2022 . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 NWS ILN still looking good: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 20 minutes ago, Hoosier said: LOT has an advisory for Lake/Porter but still kept the Winter Storm Watch, so appears that confidence in warning amounts is not sufficient. I’d bet low end warning criteria for northern Lake and Porter counties especially given the short duration Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 22, 2022 Author Share Posted January 22, 2022 . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 I want what the rap is smoking 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 NWS added heavy snow pops to the P&C and accums upped to 3-5” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Clipper #2 underway here. 1-2” tonight and 1-3” tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 11 minutes ago, mimillman said: NWS added heavy snow pops to the P&C and accums upped to 3-5” Celebrate good times, come on Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 328 PM CST Sat Jan 22 2022 .SHORT TERM... Issued at 327 PM CST Sat Jan 22 2022 Through Sunday... I made a couple of minor changes to the going winter weather headlines, but only for my northwestern IN counties and Kankakee county in IL. The main change was to add Lake and Porter IN to the advisory through 15z Sunday. However, the winter storm watch continues here from 15 to 21z Sunday for both the lingering impacts from tonight 3 to 5 inch snow, and the likelihood for accumulating lake effect snow during the day Sunday. I also opted to push off the start time of the advisory for my northwestern IN counties and Kankakee counties to 11pm tonight. Not much has changed with the previous thinking for a period of moderate to briefly heavy snow rates up to an inch per hour across a good portion of northern IL into the northwestern IN tonight. The main culprit for this is the mid level impulse, and its associated surface low over the Dakotas early this afternoon. As this disturbance races southeastward towards our area this evening snow is expected to develop from northwest to southeast across a good portion of northern IL and northwestern IN as the top-down saturation occurs quickly within a zone of increasing warm air advection. Expect the snow to onset in the 8 to 9 pm timeframe this evening across the Rockford region, then by around 10 pm in and around much of the Chicago metro area, and around, or shortly, after midnight into northwestern IN. Highest snow rates (up to 1"per hour) are expected in the 11 pm through 4am period in IL and the 2am to 6am period in northwestern IN, and will largely be driven by a strengthening lower level frontogenetic circulation along the north-northeastern periphery of the surface low. The combination of the strongly forced ascent and a favorably deep dendritic growth zone will support a efficiently high ratio (up to 20:1) type snow. Therefore, fluffy snow amounts of 3 to 5 inches look likely in the band of snow that looks to run right across northern IL into northwestern IN. Lighter snow amounts of an inch or two are expected across my far southern counties outside the current advisory. The snow is expected to tapper off from northwest to southeast early Sunday morning. This will end the threat for accumulating snow for most areas by, or shortly after, daybreak Sunday morning. The main exception to this will be across parts of northwestern IN, where signs continue to point at lake effect snow continuing through much of the day, possibly heavy at times. Since confidence is high in 3 to 5 inch snow amounts across Porter and Lake IN, we have opted to include them in the winter weather advisory into early Sunday morning. However, with the concern for a potentially more organized lake effect snow continuing during the day, we have left the earlier issued winter storm watch in place directly following the 15z end time of the winter weather advisory. The main concern is that the combination of 3 to 5 inches of snow tonight, with at least some localized areas of heavier lake effect snow on Sunday, could push total amounts into the 5 to 9 inch range. This could thus result in dangerous travel conditions, especially along the I-80, 90 and 94 corridors in Lake and Porter IN. Since confidence on the exact location of the potentially most organized band of snow on Sunday remains somewhat unclear, we will hold off on issuing a warning at this time. The lake effect snow threat will wane by early Sunday evening as the winds over the lake back to a westerly direction. KJB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 McHenry buried Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 7 minutes ago, hlcater said: McHenry buried Looking to break trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Chicago gonna pull its largest storm of the season (so far) out of this? The lift is really good for a brief time and ratios should be something like 20:1. Can easily see 1"+ per hour rates for a time...question is if it lasts long enough. Good model agreement, though the American models are a bit more amped and would be ideal. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 14 minutes ago, OHweather said: Chicago gonna pull its largest storm of the season (so far) out of this? The lift is really good for a brief time and ratios should be something like 20:1. Can easily see 1"+ per hour rates for a time...question is if it lasts long enough. Good model agreement, though the American models are a bit more amped and would be ideal. DAB rainer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 HRRR bumped north again. Geos magnet still alive and well in 2022. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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