cyclone77 Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 1-3 still looks on tap tomorrow night, although models have bumped a bit northeast the past few runs. Hopefully no more bumps northeast with tomorrow night's, as the Mon system is out of reach for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 3z RAP continues its trend of slightly more amplified 700/850mb wave and stronger WAA. Really nice look for northern IL/Chi metro this run. Going to have a 10-12kft deep DGZ for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Another tick north on the latest Euro. Fits the pattern of every system this year, QPF dwindles in the final 24-36hrs before the event. In this case it's just a shifting of the storm track. Looks better for Rockford/Chicago peeps though. For the rest of the winter I'll just take whatever the models are showing at ~24-30hrs out and assume we'll get 40-60% of whatever they're showing at that time frame and that should be fairly accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Clipper keeps getting shifted northward on the latest GFS, Euro, and NAM. 06z GFS: 00z Euro: 06z NAM: Still good on the latest UK and Canadian runs, as well as the recent extended HRRR (06z) and RAP (09z) runs. 00z UK: 00z Canadian: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 1 minute ago, Spartman said: Clipper keeps getting shifted northward on the latest GFS, Euro, and NAM. 06z GFS: 00z Euro: 06z NAM: Still good on the latest UK and Canadian runs, as well as the recent extended HRRR (06z) and RAP (09z) runs. 00z UK: 00z Canadian: 06z HRRR: 09z RAP: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 as currently discussed here by LOT this is my biggest event this winter so far, provided it pans out: A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND RECENT TRENDS IN THE MODELS SHOW TWO ITEMS OF CONCERN, AN INCREASE IN QPF AND AN OVERALL, THOUGH STILL SMALL, SHIFT NORTH TO THE AXIS OF THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. WITH A FAIRLY DEEP DGZ, THE SNOW RATIOS WILL LIKELY BE FAIRLY DRY, PERHAPS INTO THE 18:1 RANGE. THUS ANY INCREASE IN QPF AMOUNTS WILL QUICKLY ADD TO SNOWFALL TOTALS. A SWATH OF 2-4 INCHES IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR PART OF THE AREA AND ITS POSSIBLE THERE MAY BE AN NARROW SWATH OF 4-5 INCHES. HOWEVER, THE SMALL SHIFT NORTH IN THE MODELS LOWERS CONFIDENCE FOR WHERE THIS BAND MAY ACTUALLY SET UP, THOUGH CURRENT TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST IN THE I-88 TO I-80 AREA. SNOWFALL RATES MAY APPROACH AN INCH AN HOUR IN THIS NARROW BAND, FOR A FEW HOURS AS THE HEAVIEST SNOW LOOKS TO LAST ONLY 3-5 HOURS. IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE, ITS POSSIBLE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Hope it keeps trending favorably Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 22, 2022 Author Share Posted January 22, 2022 A scattered DAB is locked in for early tomorrow morning across parts of the area. Then you can easily lock in 1-3” for much of the area tomorrow night into Sunday morning as well.Monday is still a wild card it appears..If 12z guidance holds the trends from 0z/6z suites, can probably bump that up to 2-4” for most of the area tonight and chalk up 0.5-2” for Monday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Trends r my friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 nice appetizer as we await GHD III 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 7 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Trends r my friend Trended right into an SPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 22, 2022 Author Share Posted January 22, 2022 11 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Trends r my friend ready2b DAB'd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said: ready2b DAB'd. ready3b DAB'd. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Ended up with 0.8” from wave 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 6 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: ready2b DAB'd. Dab- on amigo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 22, 2022 Author Share Posted January 22, 2022 4 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Dab- on amigo 1 Non-measurable DAB at ORD, RFD and at home as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Looking good for some dry clipper snow. Id say Detroit looks good for 1-2" tmrw and 1-3" Monday. Chicago looks 2-3" tmrw and 1-2" Monday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 accidently heard cracku-weather on local station going with 2-4". Be nice, if that were a trend in today's models. I'll take whatever I can get. Nice fluffy, snowfall on a saturday night against the background of my remaining Christmas lights with a beverage in hand sounds good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 5 minutes ago, Baum said: accidently heard cracku-weather on local station going with 2-4". Be nice, if that were a trend in today's models. I'll take whatever I can get. Nice fluffy, snowfall on a saturday night against the background of my remaining Christmas lights with a beverage in hand sounds good. You have a promising career in creative writing awaiting you 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 6 minutes ago, Baum said: accidently heard cracku-weather on local station going with 2-4". Be nice, if that were a trend in today's models. I'll take whatever I can get. Nice fluffy, snowfall on a saturday night against the background of my remaining Christmas lights with a beverage in hand sounds good. ++ A little backyard hockey games. Bring it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 1 minute ago, ChiTownSnow said: ++ A little backyard hockey games. Bring it ironically, family right behind me has a skating rink. My guess is they'll have a bon fire going and doing just that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Ye of little faith Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 8 minutes ago, mimillman said: Ye of little faith it's not on the ground yet. Third wave looking a touch better now as well on the new GFS for our neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 22, 2022 Author Share Posted January 22, 2022 We're about to double the season total in about two days time. That total is currently 6.6" at ORD. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Just now, Chicago Storm said: We're about to double the season total in about two days time. That total is currently 6.6" at ORD. haha 12z GFS for both events 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 I’m definitely going to bust low. This looking more like 4-6” across both clippers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said: We're about to double the season total in about two days time. That total is currently 6.6" at ORD. 35% chance that ORD finds a way to not be at 10" after this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 In all seriousness this is looking decent around here. Look to be in a good spot for the synoptic system and then could have some lake contribution. I'm thinking high end advisory amounts are a pretty good bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 12z Euro: 12z UK: 12z Canadian: 15z RAP: 12z: HRRR: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 22, 2022 Author Share Posted January 22, 2022 stop spamming my thread.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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