Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Jan 21 - 22 Weekend SE VA and Eastern Shore Snow


stormtracker
 Share

Recommended Posts

It's sad that the Euro is now the Queen, but glad that the GFS is having is time in the limelight.  Never though I'd see the day.  Prob temporary, but still...

It appears below seems to be working!

“For the first time, the GFS will be coupled with a global wave model called WaveWatchIII offsite link which will extend current wave forecasts from 10 days out to 16 days and improve the prediction of ocean waves forced by the atmosphere. Coupling the GFS and wave models will streamline the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) production suite by consolidating atmospheric and wave forecast data and distributing them together. The GFS resolution will increase by doubling the number of vertical levels, from 64 to 127. Improvements to atmospheric physics will enhance snow and precipitation forecasting capabilities in this latest upgrade as well.”
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Whatever "it" is about this progressive Northern stream pattern, it fits the gfs physics the best. Don't know what and it will definitely flip again but for right now, the gfs is the mid range king as long as the general longwave pattern holds in its current form imo.

Seems in Nina years the GFS has excelled recently. Likely a function of how it handles the Northern stream and Nina being generally N Stream dominant. We just can't know.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Whatever "it" is about this progressive Northern stream pattern, it fits the gfs physics the best. Don't know what and it will definitely flip again but for right now, the gfs is the mid range king as long as the general longwave pattern holds in its current form imo.

I’m learning from you all that the GFS doesn’t accurately do well with the SS in the long to mid range. Is that why the GFS didn’t pick up on the Jan 3rd storm until about 48 hours out?   Do any of the other models figure this out any better? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

I’m learning from you all that the GFS doesn’t accurately do well with the SS in the long to mid range. Is that why the GFS didn’t pick up on the Jan 3rd storm until about 48 hours out?   Do any of the other models figure this out any better? 

Actually, the GFS seemed to be the best fit model for Jan 3rd. I was under the belief that this was due to the model's handling of the northern stream, modelling that piece of energy to be faster than any other guidance, which caused it to get out of the way faster and allow the SS shortwave to amplify. Someone can correct me on this, but I do definitely remember that it was showing glimpses of decent hits at ~60-72hrs out, but upped the ante with other guidance following suit shortly after.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

25 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

I’m learning from you all that the GFS doesn’t accurately do well with the SS in the long to mid range. Is that why the GFS didn’t pick up on the Jan 3rd storm until about 48 hours out?   Do any of the other models figure this out any better? 

I wish it was that black and white. Overall, on the balance, gfs is pretty good with NS driven patterns. However, gfs has been upgraded pretty recently and it takes a while to figure out strengths and weaknesses. I've thought the new gfs was pretty good when it was the FV3 or whatever it was called. Ran too cold but did well in mid range. 

The atmosphere is nearly infinitely complex when it comes to turning math into a simulation. No one model is ever even close to being "the one". That's where the fun of this hobby comes from. In the midrange, all models are wrong. How and what is wrong is up to the interpreter. 

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

I wish it was that black and white. Overall, on the balance, gfs is pretty good with NS driven patterns. However, gfs has been upgraded pretty recently and it takes a while to figure out strengths and weaknesses. I've thought the new gfs was pretty good when it was the FV3 or whatever it was called. Ran too cold but did well in mid range. 

The atmosphere is nearly infinitely complex when it comes to turning math into a simulation. No one model is ever even close to being "the one". That's where the fun of this hobby comes from. In the midrange, all models are wrong. How and what is wrong is up to the interpreter. 

Thanks. I appreciate your valuable insight.  I’ve been tracking snow for as long as I can remember, but this forum has been invaluable in trying to understand how it all works. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • WxUSAF changed the title to Jan 21 - 22 Weekend SE VA and Eastern Shore Snow
  • WxUSAF unpinned this topic

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...