Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Jan 21 - 22 Weekend SE VA and Eastern Shore Snow


stormtracker
 Share

Recommended Posts

We are getting into the critical time period for any meaningful changes to occur. Fighting progressive flow, a positively tilted trough, and the shortwave lacks sharpness as it moves east. Euro had a sharper/deeper sw with a more neutral orientation on approach but has moved away from that in the last few runs. Ensembles all look at tad better with NW extent of precip than the ops but still a clear signal for an offshore low. Not making any predictions, but favoring a trip to the Beach to see some snow this weekend at this point.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Anybody with 6z gefs? And 6z eps when they come out.

Looking at the PSU site I can see several gefs that would be ok but those maps are hell to interpret

06z GEFS:

Only 4 of the 30 get the 6" line near/at DCA

Most of the snow DCA and N/W is from tomorrow morning

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Unfortunately the rest of the overnight guidance confirmed my suspicion regarding convergence v a true NW trend. 
 

Noting the run to run trend of a specific model is important and part of the analytical process and it’s especially significant if an outlier is trending towards the consensus since that increases confidence. That’s often what we do if the consensus is what we want. 
 

But the consensus here was a close miss. Early on there was a lot of cenebrating amplified trends in the Gfs and NAM but they were the least amplified models. The icon had been the second most amplified and it was trending weaker. The rgem and ggem had been in between and they stayed mostly identical. Based on that it seemed likely we weren’t seeing a true north trend towards a euro like soliton but rather a convergence of guidance towards a southeast VA hit. 
 

That wasn’t even a prediction of the outcome just a prediction of what the 0z guidance was doing. Maybe we see a real trend today. I tend to doubt it. The flow is not really supportive without the more amplified phased idea the euro had and everything has moved away from that.  I continue to like the pattern overall abc especially like the window between the 25-30, just not bullish on a big hit from this. I could see some snow sneaking up to DC but the euro big storm idea seems pretty unlikely Imo. 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • WxUSAF changed the title to Jan 21 - 22 Weekend SE VA and Eastern Shore Snow
  • WxUSAF unpinned this topic
  • stormtracker pinned this topic

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...