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Jan 21 - 22 Weekend SE VA and Eastern Shore Snow


stormtracker
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11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There was a time I salivated when central or southern VA was the target 3-5 days out. But over the last 5 years we’ve seen about a half dozen of these and not seen a flake from any of them. DC got into some on the northern fringe. But places like Winchester, Hagerstown, Frederick… have mostly misses every one. The north trend isn’t what it used to be.  
ETA: that’s not the same as the the west trend when there is no blocking which is still a real thing. 

Models have gotten better. 

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Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

Much better. Deeper and slower. I was using the 549 height line for reference. At 0z Friday night (Sat) it was just north of Nashville on this run and in the prior run it was just south of Huntington. That’s a big difference.

Agree, really like the improvement. AND... this is one of those things where minute improvements can have big impact downstream wrt surface truth, low track, precip, etc. if we get more phasing to occur

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But is this really a positive trend or just models coming to consensus. If the most amplified models trend weaker and the least trend stronger that’s not really any change in the overall situation. If the euro goes back to a big hit then we actually made progress over the last 24 hours. Otherwise all that’s happened in everything met in the middle. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

But is this really a positive trend or just models coming to consensus. If the most amplified models trend weaker and the least trend stronger that’s not really any change in the overall situation. If the euro goes back to a big hit then we actually made progress over the last 24 hours. Otherwise all that’s happened in everything met in the middle. 

Man...

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  • WxUSAF changed the title to Jan 21 - 22 Weekend SE VA and Eastern Shore Snow
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